EAGAN, Minn. -- The Minnesota Vikings are 8-2 for the second time in three seasons. There isn't much the teams share in common -- the Vikings have changed their quarterback, defensive coordinator and 14 of 22 starters over that span -- but one question ties the two together.
Are they really that good?
The Vikings' 2022 edition was enigmatic from the start, finishing the season 13-4 despite a negative differential in points (minus-3) and yards gained (minus-463). They had the worst DVOA for any team with 11 or more victories in the 45-year history of the metric, which compares success on each play to the league average based on down and distance with adjustments for situations and opponents, and were prime candidates for the first-round playoff loss they eventually suffered. Teams with similar DVOA performance profiles typically win eight games.
The 2024 team is more formidable, both in the underlying data and via the eye test. The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL in point differential (+74), ninth in yard differential (+318) and fourth in DVOA. In other words, their victories have been more sound, forceful and meaningful for making future projections than in 2022, and their losses have been less damaging.
"There's just no comparison between those teams," said Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA who is now the chief analytics officer of FTN Fantasy and a contributor to ESPN. "The 2022 team was close to the strangest year I've ever seen. This year is a completely different situation. The Vikings this season are playing like an 8-2 team. There's no luck involved here. They have played that well."
Every win counts the same in the standings, but they can tell different stories about the underlying strength of a team. A devil's advocate could point out that half of the Vikings' wins this season have come against AFC South teams, who play in the NFL's worst division based on combined winning percentage (.357). They've also defeated only two teams with a quarterback ranked in the top 20 in QBR: San Francisco 49ers (Brock Purdy) and Green Bay Packers (Jordan Love).
But overall, DVOA places the Vikings' defensive performance as the best in the league when adjusted for the strength of opposing offenses, and it has powered the team despite some uneven performances from the offense. And if you're looking for reasons to wring your hands 2022-style, you won't find it in the Vikings' locker room.
"There are no homecoming games out there," safety Harrison Smith said. "It doesn't matter what people's records are. Everybody has Pro Bowlers. Everybody can score in one play. There are no easy [wins]. They all count as one, and that's been my mindset."
Check out the stats from Sam Darnold's best fantasy perfomance of the season.
Coach Kevin O'Connell chafed under criticism of the 2022 team but seems content to give any and all narratives room to breathe this season. Largely because of the transition from quarterback Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold, with rookie J.J. McCarthy sidelined for the season by a knee injury, the over/under on the Vikings' season win total was 6.5, according to ESPN Bet. ESPN's Football Power Index gave them a 14% chance to make the playoffs. (That FPI projection is now up to 95.1%.)
If anything, outside observers underestimated the Vikings' defense. It addition to its DVOA rankings, it stands atop the the league in opponent QBR (49.7), and is tied for first in takeaways (21). Only two team have totaled more sacks (35).
The Vikings' two losses have come against the best quarterbacks they've faced, Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) and Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams). Their defensive performance has come against the seventh-most difficult schedule of opposing offenses, per DVOA.
O'Connell said after Sunday's game that he thought the team was still growing and finding ways to improve. Asked how good he thinks they could be this season, he smiled.
"I'm old enough to remember when nobody thought we were very good," O'Connell said. "So the same way that I answered that question, I'll answer it now. We've just got to continue to get better, improve. 8-2 means absolutely nothing."
But the question is circling elsewhere in the Vikings' locker room, especially among offensive players who know they have missed weekly opportunities to score because of mistakes or misplays. In Sunday's 23-13 victory over the Tennessee Titans, for example, receiver Jalen Nailor dropped what would have been a 46-yard touchdown pass while fellow receiver Jordan Addison -- suffering from cramps -- briefly slowed down on a deep route as Darnold dropped the ball just in front of him.
Receiver Justin Jefferson, who has managed to compile the NFL's second-most receiving yards (912) despite vigilant attention from opposing defenses, said the Vikings would be a "wonderful" team if they could put it all together.
"If our defense is doing great and forcing turnovers and getting us the ball back," he said, "and we're getting the ball back and scoring off those turnovers, and the whole entire game we just dominate, I feel like a lot of people wouldn't be able to compete with the different guys we have on this team. We're waiting for that day when we put it all together, for sure."
An 8-2 team that hasn't yet put it all together? That sounds different.