HOUSTON -- The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers won't be able to clinch the AFC North on Christmas. But their games on Wednesday will be factors in crowning the champion of this closely contested division.
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, the AFC North is essentially a coin flip. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Ravens have a 53.2% chance to win while the Steelers have a 46.8% chance.
All eyes will be on Wednesday's games, when Pittsburgh hosts the Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. ET, Netflix) and Baltimore plays at the Houston Texans (4:30 p.m. ET, Netflix).
"I pretty much know the scenarios to a degree -- the ones that matter," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "I think you need to know it as a head coach going into a game regarding ties. What do you want to play for if it comes to that? How does a tie versus a loss versus a win benefit us if it would ever come to that?"
There's not much separating the Ravens and Steelers, who have the same overall record (10-5) as well as the same mark in the division (3-2).
Despite losing 34-17 in Baltimore on Saturday, the Steelers control their fate in the AFC North because they hold the advantage in record among common opponents, which is the third tiebreaker. Pittsburgh is 7-3 among common opponents and Baltimore is 7-4. Pittsburgh also has the edge in conference record, which is the fourth tiebreaker. Pittsburgh is 7-3 in the AFC while Baltimore is 6-4.
So, the Steelers would win the division if Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win their remaining two games. But Pittsburgh has a tougher schedule, playing the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (14-1) and the Cincinnati Bengals (6-8). Baltimore plays at the Texans (9-6) and returns home to face the Cleveland Browns (3-11).
"We are singularly focused on our next opportunity," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "We get a next target; we focus our energies there. The big-picture stuff takes care of itself."
The Ravens are slightly favored to win the division because of Wednesday's games. Baltimore is a 5.5-point favorite at Houston and Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point home underdog against Kansas City, according to ESPN BET.
Excluding ties, there are eight possibilities that can occur for the Steelers and Ravens in Weeks 17 and 18. Pittsburgh wins the AFC North in five of them, and Baltimore repeats as division champion in the other three.
Here are the scenarios:
-- If the Steelers win out, the Steelers win the division with a better record among common opponents.
-- If the Ravens win out AND the Steelers lose at least one game, the Ravens win the division with a better overall record.
-- If the Ravens beat the Texans and lose to the Browns AND the Steelers lose to the Chiefs and beat the Bengals, the Steelers win the division with a better division record.
-- If the Ravens lose to the Texans and beat the Browns AND the Steelers beat the Chiefs and lose to the Bengals, the Ravens win the division with a better division record.
-- If the Ravens lose to the Texans and beat the Browns AND the Steelers lose to the Chiefs and beat the Bengals, the Steelers win the division with a better conference record.
-- If the Ravens beat the Texans and lose to the Browns AND the Steelers beat the Chiefs and lose to the Bengals, the Steelers win the division with a better record among common opponents.
-- If the Ravens win either of their last two games AND the Steelers lose out, the Ravens win the division with a better overall record.
-- If the Ravens and Steelers lose out, the Steelers win the division with a better conference record.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is not worried about these scenarios.
"We're trying to win regardless," Jackson said. "I really don't care what another team has going on. I don't. I'm trying to win."
The Steelers and Ravens have both earned spots in the playoffs, but there's a major difference between entering the postseason as a division winner and a wild card. The AFC North champion hosts at least one home game in the playoffs, and a wild-card team most likely needs to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl.
There have been only five instances when a team has won three road playoff games to make the Super Bowl. The only team that has done this in the past 13 years was the Super Bowl LV-winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who accomplished this feat during the COVID-19 season in 2020 when fan attendance was limited.
On Saturday, the Steelers could have clinched the AFC North title with a victory. Now, after two straight losses, Pittsburgh is in a fight for its first division title since 2020.
"The best thing we can do is keep our heads up," Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson said. "I think the best thing we can do is just look forward to playing in front of our fans and getting back home and fighting for what we came here to do, and I think that opportunity is still in front of us."