ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- Of the lessons the Denver Broncos have learned on their quest to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015, one has become very clear recently: just how good second-year cornerback Riley Moss has been this season.
"He hasn't played in a few weeks, but he's had a hell of a year," Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said.
Moss' value has been apparent the past three games, which he's missed with a sprained MCL in his knee. The Broncos have struggled to replace him, with their secondary being littered with busted coverages and open spaces that have been exploited by opponents.
Moss suffered his injury Nov. 24 against the Las Vegas Raiders. In the three games since, the Broncos are last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (299.7) and have given up two of their three biggest overall yardage totals of the season. The Cleveland Browns gained 552 yards on Dec. 2 (475 through the air), while the Los Angeles Chargers put up 380 in their come-from-behind win over Denver on Dec. 19. The Broncos gave up more than 30 points in each of those games, a figure they allowed only once in their first 12 games. Since Moss' injury, the Broncos have allowed an average of eight 15-plus-yard completions per game, most in the NFL. In Weeks 1-12, they allowed an average of 4.3 per game, fifth lowest.
Moss continues to progress toward a return for Saturday's game against the Cincinnati Bengals (4:30 p.m. ET, Paycor Stadium, NFL Network). He has been a full participant in practice this past week, as Tuesday was his first participation in all team drills since the injury.
The Broncos (9-6) only need one win in their final two games to clinch a postseason spot. They have a 76.6% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. To clinch on Saturday, Denver will have to slow down the NFL's top passing offense. The 7-8 Bengals, who have a 6.9% chance to reach the postseason, are No. 1 in passing yards per game (267.3). Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow entered the week as the league leader in touchdown passes (39) and passing yards (4,229).
The Bengals also have star receiver Ja'Marr Chase, who would win the NFL's receiving triple crown if the season ended right now. Chase leads the NFL in receptions (108), receiving yards (1,510) and touchdowns (16). He also leads the league with 722 yards after the catch, which accounts for 47.8% of his overall total.
"He's gifted," Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II said. "A lot of his yards come after the catch. ... The main thing is what happens in the second act."
The upcoming battle against Chase and the Cincinnati passing attack shines a light on the Broncos' recent coverage bobbles. The Broncos have sorely missed Moss' reliability -- his effectiveness carrying out assignments, consistency and willingness to battle at the catch point -- opposite Surtain. That's especially true since the Broncos play the third-highest percentage of man-to-man coverage in the NFL at 54.7%, well above the 42.2% league average.
The Broncos haven't been able to replicate Moss' effectiveness. In their win over the Browns, Denver gave up 235 yards to Cleveland's Jerry Jeudy, the most it has allowed to an opposing receiver in franchise history. Veteran cornerback Levi Wallace, who was trailing Jeudy on many of those receptions, was benched during that game. He was a game-day inactive the following two weeks before being waived Tuesday.
Rookie Kris Abrams-Draine, a fifth-round selection, and Damarri Mathis have split time opposite Surtain the past two games, depending on personnel grouping. Mathis has played more when the Broncos are in their base 3-4 look, while Abrams-Draine has played more in Denver's nickel packages. Abrams-Draine had his first career interception in Week 16 against the Chargers.
However, that loss was another example of the Broncos' secondary struggles. Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey repeatedly ran free when not covered by Surtain. He finished with six receptions for 87 yards, with three of his catches resulting in first downs.
"We've got to look closely at why these things [are] happening," Broncos coach Sean Payton said. "But five different times, we had free runners, and you can't have one of their top receivers not covered."
Even if the Broncos choose to match up Surtain on Chase on Saturday more than they did with Jeudy or McConkey, there's still a question of how the Broncos will fare when the Bengals motion Chase away from Surtain. And Cincinnati's other receivers, Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas, could be trouble spots if Moss is unavailable or limited.
Higgins has seven touchdown receptions -- tied for 12th in the league entering Week 17 -- and Iosivas has six. For context, Iosivas has as many scores as Courtland Sutton, Denver's leader in receiving touchdowns.
"We have to do the right things right," Surtain said. "Hone in on the details ... really get it right. I've said mistakes aren't on the offense, mistakes are us. Offenses are going to make plays sometimes, it's the NFL, you know? But mistakes cost us, we've seen it."