JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Despite watching his team finish with double-digit losses for the 10th time in his 13 seasons as the Jacksonville Jaguars' owner, Shad Khan said he never considered a complete organizational overhaul, a move he said would be "like shooting yourself in the foot."
Instead, he said he made the decision to fire only head coach Doug Pederson on Monday morning but retain general manager Trent Baalke in large part because he felt the Jaguars were the most predictable team in the NFL.
"What is a complete overhaul of the franchise?" Khan asked on a Zoom call with reporters Monday afternoon. "Health and wellness of the players, medical statistics, analysis, scouting, and a number of other elements along with contract administration, all of those areas we have really changed [and] improved certainly over the last four or five years. So to change all of that is almost like suicidal.
"You've got 85 people working on that side [of the organization] and you say, 'I'm going to get rid of them and find 85 new people that are going to be better than that?' That's like shooting yourself in the foot. I mean, we need to go to work on something that is broken, that needs to be fixed, and continually be improving things that are working."
For Khan, that was not the offense or defense -- both of which were among the league's worst. Under offensive coordinator Press Taylor, the Jaguars ranked 25th in yards per game (305.8), 21st in passing yards per game (204.5), and 21st in third downs (37.3%). Season-ending injuries to quarterback Trevor Lawrence, receivers Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, and tight end Evan Engram played a significant role in the offense's struggles, but the Jaguars ranked in the middle third of the NFL in scoring, total offense, rushing and passing through the first nine weeks before Lawrence sustained a shoulder injury.
The defense ranked 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (389.9) and last in passing yards allowed per game (257.4) under coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Jacksonville forced only a league-low nine turnovers, the only team with fewer than 12. Khan was unhappy with the lack of creativity on both sides of the ball and believes a coaching change will fix that.
"Right now we are the most predictable team on both sides of the ball," he said. "[In] football, to win, deception is a big part of it. Unpredictability. If you know exactly what we're going to do on offense or defense, you better have the 22 best players to help us win a football game.
"Being unpredictable is modern football and we have to be able to show that on the field."
Offensively, the Jaguars used motion at the snap on just 11.3% of their snaps (fewest in the NFL) and ranked 31st in plays with pre-snap motion (44.1%), per ESPN Research. In addition, 77.3% of the Jaguars' rush attempts were between the tackles (third-highest rate in the league). Defensively, the Jaguars lined up with two high safeties a league-high 60.9% of the time while playing Cover 3 a league-low 8.3% of the time, per ESPN Research. They also played man coverage 56% of the time, just slightly behind Detroit (56.4%) and Denver (56.3%).
Baalke is entering the final year of his five-year contract, but Khan would not say whether he had given Baalke an extension. Under the current structure, Baalke and the head coach will report directly to Khan, but Khan wouldn't rule out adding an executive vice president of football operations as a layer between himself and Baalke and the new coach.
Khan also said he doesn't believe having a head coach and GM on different contract terms wouldn't be an issue, but he admitted that if any coaching candidate expressed reservations about that -- or working with Baalke -- he would be willing to address the topic.
"What we want to do is for them to have an environment where they're going to be successful and they say, 'I want my own quarterback, I want my own health and wellness, I want my own doctors,'" Khan said. "I would want to really go through that in depth because if we can get better ... and if they have reservations, I would want to address them honestly and openly because our goal is they need to be successful. What do we have to give them to be successful?"
Khan will now be searching for his sixth head coach since he purchased the team in November 2011 and assumed control in 2012.
Khan had big expectations for 2024, telling the team the night before training camp began last July that this was the "best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars ever" and that he expected the team to make the playoffs. Those comments became public via an in-house documentary released in early September. But instead, his team set an NFL record with 10 one-score losses, the most in a single season in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
"When you don't win, there's changes that come from in all areas, coaching, management, and the players," said Engram, who sat out the final four games of the season because of a shoulder injury. "So there's going to be a lot of changes moving forward based on us not getting the job done. And it's unfortunate. It's been a great three years playing for Doug. I've learned a lot. I've grown a lot, and this place is definitely going to grow from the experiences we've had under him and moving forward. It's definitely going to be different, but I appreciate Doug for everything he's done and wish him the best moving forward."
Pederson went 22-29 in three seasons with the Jaguars, including 9-8 records in his first two seasons. Jacksonville won the AFC South in 2022 -- winning its last five games -- and rallied from a 27-0 deficit to beat the Chargers in a wild-card playoff game before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. After starting the 2023 season 8-3, the Jaguars fell apart and missed the playoffs, going 1-5 to end the season.
Last season's struggles spilled over into 2024. A 37-point loss on "Monday Night Football" at the Buffalo Bills and a 35-16 loss to the Chicago Bears and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams in London highlighted major issues early on. A 52-6 loss at Detroit on Nov. 17 was the largest margin of defeat in franchise history (eclipsing a 44-point loss to Detroit in the 1995 inaugural season) and the defense gave up 645 yards, the second-most allowed in a game in franchise history.
Khan hired Pederson in part to help Lawrence develop into one of the league's top quarterbacks, but Lawrence still struggled with consistency after three seasons in Pederson's offense. Lawrence threw for 2,045 yards and 11 touchdowns before a shoulder injury and concussion Dec. 1 ended his season. His completion percentage (60.6%) is the second lowest of his career, and he continues to struggle with turnovers.
Pederson also has faced heavy criticism about his OC Taylor, who took over full-time playcalling duties in 2023. After saying he was going to reevaluate the playcalling process last February, Pederson refused to publicly say who was going to call plays in 2024, though it was later confirmed to be Taylor. Even Khan weighed in on the issue, saying in June that he had a preference on who would call plays but would leave the decision to Pederson.
The lone bright spot on offense has been receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who led all rookies in receiving yards (1,282) and TDs (10). He also had 87 catches, and those marks set single-season franchise rookie records. Thomas was recently named a first alternate for the Pro Bowl.
It's unfortunate because at the end of the day we all had a hand in this season and just how the way things have shaken out," said Kirk, who sat out the final nine games of the season because of a broken collarbone. "I have a ton of respect for Doug. He's made me a better football player, better man. I think he's one of the better coaches to have coached in this league, and it's just unfortunate the way that things went.
"But obviously the organization has to make a decision that they feel is best."
Khan says he believes the Jaguars can turn things around quickly -- maybe as soon as 2025 -- to get to the point where they're competing for the playoffs every season. Baalke agreed.
"We don't need to fix everything, we just need to fix some things," Baalke said. "And I think identifying that person that can come in and then sit down with the staff that we put together around him and really take a look at the roster. Again, we do this with every year, take a hard look at the roster, identify who the players are that you have to put in a position to win games for you, and then surround them the best you can with free agents and or draft picks.
"The process isn't going to change. We just have to do some things a little different, a little better."
Baalke joined the Jaguars as director of player personnel in February 2020 and was promoted to general manager after Khan fired GM Dave Caldwell that November. Baalke's tenure started with the selection of Lawrence with the first overall pick in 2021 and included Urban Meyer's calamitous 13-game span as head coach, the hiring of Pederson, an AFC South title, a rally from a 27-0 deficit to win a wild-card playoff game, the biggest collapse in franchise history, and signing one of the best free agent classes in team history.
But Baalke also made a questionable decision by choosing defensive end Travon Walker over defensive end Aidan Hutchinson with the No. 1 pick in 2022 and signed one of the most disappointing free agent classes in franchise history this season. He also was critical of the team's lack of identity on offense and defense in 2023, but the same problem has plagued the team this season.
Nine of Baalke's 38 draft picks from 2021 to 2024 have become full-time starters, including Lawrence, running back Travis Etienne Jr. (25th overall in 2021), cornerback Tyson Campbell (33rd overall in 2021), Walker, linebacker Devin Lloyd (27th overall in 2022), right tackle Anton Harrison (27th overall in 2023), and Thomas (23rd overall in 2024). Lawrence is the only one to make a Pro Bowl.