CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- It's a no-brainer that the Carolina Panthers will pick up the fifth-year option on quarterback Bryce Young during the offseason, just like the other eight NFL quarterbacks who were drafted No. 1 between 2011, when the league implemented the fifth-year option for first-round picks, and 2023, when Young was taken with the top pick.
The two quarterbacks taken No. 1 after Young -- Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears, 2024) and Cam Ward (Tennessee Titans, 2025) -- likely will have their options picked up when eligible, too, in large part because of the financial benefits.
Young, for example, would make at least $26.5 million in 2027 under his fifth-year option. Signing him to an extension could cost at least twice as much. The top five highest paid quarterbacks are are making between $53.1 to $60 million a year.
What's not a given is whether Young will get a contract extension before his fourth season. Only four of the previous eight since 2011 were extended after three seasons, including Andrew Luck, who was 33-15 his first three years with the Indianapolis Colts.
For Young to get extended this offseason, his performance over the final four regular-season games -- as Carolina tries to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017 -- will be crucial.
Young can't have another game on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox), like he did in the November 9 loss to the then one-win Saints at Bank of America Stadium.
Young had a Total QBR of 14.4, his second lowest of the season, in the 17-7 setback that could play a huge role down the stretch as the Panthers (7-6) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) battle it out for the NFC South title.
Despite marked improvement from his first two seasons, inconsistency still stands between Young and his goals of becoming a franchise quarterback and ending Carolina's playoff drought. For every stellar performance, such as the one he had against the Los Angeles Rams before last week's bye, there have been duds.
The week before throwing three touchdowns and posting a career-best 147.1 QBR against the Rams, Young had a season-worst 13.9 QBR in a 20-9 Monday night loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
That leaves Young still in the prove-it stage.
"The next four [games] are vital,'' one former NFL coach said. "He lacks consistency. ... He has to play more consistent.''
Said a current league executive: "He has not shown an ability to consistently make the entire offense better with him. Basically, he has two years to earn an extension if you pick up his option year.''
With the exception of the Panthers' 30-27 overtime victory at Atlanta on November 16, Young hasn't shown the ability to carry the team when the running game isn't working.
He completed 31 of 45 pass attempts that day for a franchise-record 448 yards and three touchdowns. But he followed that with his worst statistical game, throwing two interceptions and one touchdown, in the prime-time loss to the 49ers.
"There's no dream plays or hoorah speeches,'' Young said afterwards. "I need to do a better job of executing. I need to take care of the ball. I needed to do a better job of making plays go today. I didn't do good enough.''
The Panthers averaged 169.5 rushing yards in six of Young's seven wins this season. That includes two games with more than 200 yards on the ground.
His only win when the Panthers had less than 110 rushing yards came against the Falcons, who held Carolina to 67 yards. The Panthers had 164 yards rushing in the upset against the Rams when Young was at his best.
The play-action pass, the ability to have a moving pocket and running the bootleg are important to Young's success.
He didn't have that in last month's loss to the Saints, who stacked the box against the run and held Carolina to 73 yards. Young didn't take advantage in the passing game, throwing an interception and getting credit for a fumble on an exchange with wide receiver Jimmy Horn Jr.
"We missed some opportunities in the pass game, and the Saints did a great job of challenging us and our run game,'' coach Dave Canales said of explaining the setback without pointing the finger at Young. "The focus in that week was trying to have a balanced attack, and they didn't give us a lot.''
Canales said consistency is what he'll be looking for from Young during four weeks of what he called "championship'' opportunities.
"Just to continue to lead, keep pushing our concepts forward, finding ways to protect some of our core concepts in the run game and the pass game, and just lead the charge that way in terms of getting us to the right play,'' Canales said.
"[Consistency] is part of the whole thing.''
That doesn't mean Young can't get to the level the Panthers expected when they traded a king's ransom to the Bears for the top pick. He is 7-5 this season and 13-27 for his career.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford won only 13 games in his first three NFL seasons after being the top pick of the 2009 draft by the Detroit Lions, and now he's a future Hall of Fame candidate with a Super Bowl victory.
But Stafford had a Total QBR of 43.6 during his first two seasons, looking like a potential No. 1 bust until his third season when he went 10-6 and led Detroit to the playoffs.
Young's QBR his first two seasons (42.4) was about the same. If he wins three of his final four games he would equal Stafford's third-year win total.
The biggest difference is Stafford was more consistent in his third season with a 60.5 QBR (13th in NFL), 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Young ranks 24th in the league in QBR with a rating of 45.9.
That makes a strong finish more imperative to how the Panthers view Young's long-term potential, although Young's teammates remain confident in where the former Heisman Trophy winner can take them.
"He's not thinking about what these last four weeks mean [in terms of the future],'' said backup quarterback Andy Dalton, echoing the sentiments of other Carolina players. "He just needs to play like what he's capable of and everything else will work out.''
That's what makes the final four games (including two against the Bucs) so valuable for in the Panthers' long-term evaluation of Young.
"These last four games mean a lot,'' said another NFL executive. "They will be the most meaningful of his career. They will tell you a lot about what his ceiling is.''