ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- A perpetual goal for the Buffalo Bills is to win the AFC East every season. Doing so locks in a playoff appearance and at least one playoff game at home -- all the more meaningful this year as the Bills prepare to say goodbye to their current stadium at the end of this season.
Yet this season stands in stark contrast to last. A year ago, coach Sean McDermott had quarterback Josh Allen join him in making snow angels when the Bills beat the San Francisco 49ers to clinch the AFC East in historic fashion in Week 13. The Bills became the seventh team since 1980 to clinch the division with five games remaining.
Division competition is stiffer in 2025, and the New England Patriots have become one of the hottest teams in football. So, instead of being the team with the clear path, the Bills are now trying to stop the Patriots from ending the Buffalo's streak of divisional success when the teams meet for the second time this season on Sunday (1 p.m. EST, CBS).
With a win against Buffalo (9-4), the Patriots (11-2) will take the AFC East. With a Bills win, Buffalo keeps hope alive that New England will slip up along the way.
Despite the stakes, Bills players throughout the locker room have downplayed the race: "We know how this league is, ups and downs, ebbs and flows," cornerback Tre'Davious White said. "But usually you just want to be consistent and I feel like the last few weeks we have been and I think that we go in there and just play it one game at a time, one play at a time and at the end of the day it's just football."
The Patriots also will maintain an edge even with a loss this weekend as they hold a two-game lead, plus a better divisional record (3-0 to 2-2) after beating the Bills in Orchard Park earlier in the season. New England then travels to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets before hosting the Miami Dolphins to close the regular season, while the Bills travel to the Cleveland Browns and then host the Philadelphia Eagles and Jets.
The Bills are in a very different spot from the 2024 season, but it wasn't long ago that Buffalo has been in this position. In 2023, the Bills clawed back from 6-6 to beat the Dolphins to the AFC East in the season's final game.
"We're doing everything that we can to prepare as hard as we can to go out there and execute as well as we can on Sunday," Allen said on not giving up the division without a fight. "We think we understand as a team what's at stake. But I don't think that's gonna influence anything. It's the next game; it's the biggest game that we have because it's the next one."
The Bills have won the division five straight seasons from 2020 to 2024. Prior to that, the Patriots owned the division. New England has won 17 division titles since 2000 (next closest team is the Green Bay Packers with 12). Week 15 would be the earliest the Patriots have clinched the division since 2017.
"I wouldn't say [it's on our minds]," Bills defensive tackle Jordan Phillips said. "... I think the mentality here is it's just another game, big game because it's the next."
Only once in Allen's career has he not had at least one home playoff game -- 2019 (outside of not making the playoffs in his rookie year, 2018). The Bills lost in the wild-card round that year to the Houston Texans.
The importance of winning the division can't be overstated in terms of the Bills' approach each year. General manager Brandon Beane referenced this offseason that the team approaches building its roster with the division race top of mind.
"It always starts in your division, because that's your ticket to the postseason," Beane said. "And if you don't take care of business in your division, then you don't get the opportunity, maybe, to play the Chiefs. So, we'll always pay attention to the Jets, the Patriots, and the Dolphins. How do we match up? Where are we stronger than them? Where are they stronger than us? How will we have to win those games?"
So, how do the Bills beat the Patriots this time around?
In their first meeting in Week 5, turnovers were an issue for the Bills' 23-20 loss. A red zone interception by Allen led to an 11-play, 90-yard drive by the Patriots that played a role in the game's outcome. There were also two fumbles by the Bills in the first quarter, including one that led to a field goal.
Beyond that game, turnovers, especially on the road, have been an issue for this Bills offense. Each of their past three road games have included multiple turnovers. Running back James Cook III also had two fumbles vs. the Cincinnati Bengals last week alone (one lost), and his six fumbles while rushing are twice as many as the next-closest players. His three rush fumbles lost are also the most in the NFL.
"I think if we don't turn the ball over we're a pretty good offense," Allen said. "So I think that's of the utmost importance of making sure we're holding on the football, making sure that we're taking advantage of the drills that we have in place -- our ball security drills. And again just making good decisions and allowing us to have every chance possible to win a football game."
This is a different Bills team, though, than the one that played back in Week 5. The team now has different players involved on the defensive side, such as rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston. The Bills are also in the process of getting healthier, including getting right tackle Spencer Brown back after missing two games, and having every player outside of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (illness) out on the practice field on Thursday. A very good sign as December heats up.
Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs exploded for 10 catches for 146 yards in the Week 5 matchup -- his best performance this season -- so slowing him down will be crucial.
The Bills are aware of the problems that MVP contender Drake Maye presents, as well. Buffalo defenders noted the confidence the Patriots quarterback is showing on the field.
"[Maye's] a really good player, very athletic, does a really good job in their offense in particular and Josh [McDaniels] does a phenomenal job of developing quarterbacks. ... You know he's done it several times before and this is no different, so Maye is playing at a very, very high level."
While the odds of winning the division are low, this is the time of year when the Bills are at their best, holding the best regular season record in December and January since 2020 (24-4).
And despite all of the downplaying, the intensity remains.
"We know going into the season every year, win every game, of course," left tackle Dion Dawkins said. "But the individual battles are, win your division. Winning your division is not the easiest way, but that's the first way to be able to punch your ticket into the postseason, and divisional opponents play us the hardest."