Hockey, perhaps more so than any other sport, thrives on the unexpected. Whether it's a journeyman suddenly breaking out for a career season, an established star mysteriously going cold in the middle of his prime, or a goalie playing out of character (in any direction), the NHL is rarely short on surprises. And through the first few months of the 2024-25 season, we've already seen plenty of examples for each type of performance.
We can measure which players have defied expectations -- for better or worse -- relative to their previous careers using my adjusted Goals Above Replacement (GAR) metric. Specifically, we'll be comparing players to their established level of production, which is an average of their previous three seasons of adjusted GAR, with more recent seasons receiving increased weight.
Some players have blown past their earlier track records and become unexpected stars of the season -- they have the largest positive differentials between actual and established GAR -- while others have seen their once-reliable production plummet -- causing them to fall far short of their established GAR.
Let's dive into a starting lineup (three forwards, two defensemen and a goalie) of biggest overachievers and underperformers of the season so far and explore what might be driving these surprising trends.
Note: All stats are as of Tuesday afternoon, Dec. 3.
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All-overachiever team | All-underachiever team
All-overachiever team
Forwards
Connor McMichael, C, Washington Capitals
2024-25 age: 24
Basic stats: 24 GP, 14 G, 10 A, 24 Pts, +10, 17.6 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 1.1 Offense | 1.1 Defense | 2.1 Total
Actual GAR pace: 18.5 Offense | 3.8 Defense | 22.3 Total (+20.2)