The 2024 NRL season is set to be tight, with plenty of player movement during the offseason as clubs hope to turn their fortunes around or maintain their dominance. Tipping eight winners each weekend is going to be near impossible, so each week we'll give you some extra help with three standout games.
The sure thing
Last week Manly taught us that there is no such thing as a "sure thing" in the NRL, although I should have known that the Bulldogs were never going to beat the Rabbitohs on Good Friday, not with Gerard Sutton blowing the whistle.
This week I've chosen a Queensland derby with two teams that are a little hard to read. The Cowboys were thumped last week by the Broncos in wet conditions in Brisbane, while the Titans jumped out to a 10-0 lead over the Dolphins before being run down. The loss to the Broncos was the Cowboys' first slip of the season and it was a poor one against their fierce rivals. They will be looking to put that behind them as quickly as possible with a big win at home against the Titans.
What worries me a little about this game is that the Titans can't possibly keep losing forever under coach Des Hasler. They will click into gear one day soon, and everyone will wonder why they started the season so poorly. But, I still think the Cowboys will have their measure up in Townsville.
Round 5 sure thing: Cowboys
The toss of the coin
Melbourne Storm vs. Brisbane Broncos, AAMI Park, Thursday April 4, 8pm (AEDT)
So many games seem to fall into this category, but the Storm hosting the Broncos seems to be one of the tougher games to tip this week. The Storm had last week off after their shock loss to the Knights in Round 3. The Broncos, led by Adam Reynolds, proved they could win without the spark of Reece Walsh, thrashing the Cowboys in the rain.
This game really could go either way, but after having the week off to freshen up and assess where they went wrong against the Knights and enjoying the home ground advantage, I think the Storm will win this one.
Toss of the coin game winner: Storm
Other notable toss of the coin mentions: Knights vs. Dragons, Rabbitohs vs. Warriors, Raiders vs. Eels.
The roughie
Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers, Suncorp Stadium, Saturday April 6, 7:35pm (AEDT)
The Tigers go into this game as the outsiders despite back-to-back wins. The loss of star five-eighth Lachie Galvin to suspension might have something to do with that, as would the improving form of the Dolphins capped with a big fightback win over the Titans last week.
Coach Benji Marshall has his Tigers players believing and Apisai Koroisau is leading them sublimely from dummy-half. Their defence has been tenacious and it will need to be to hold out the flashy Dolphins. If you are looking for a roughie this week, I think the Tigers might just make it a hat-trick of victories.
Round 4 roughie: Tigers
Click here for a full guide to Round 5 of the 2024 NRL season