The 2024 NRL season is tight, with plenty of players injured or in and out of form, as clubs look to make their runs through the Origin period, tipping a perfect round is nearly impossible, so each week we'll give you some extra help with three standout games.
The sure thing
Melbourne Storm vs. Canberra Raiders, AAMI Stadium, Saturday June 29, 7:35pm (AEST)
Is there any such thing as a sure thing in this season's NRL? Certainly not if you're a regular reader of this column. My apologies to anyone and everyone I have led astray with my confident, if often incorrect, predictions. Having said that, let's go again.
Last week I tipped the Raiders as certainties to beat the Tigers simply because they had so much on the line. Apparently they just don't care whether or not they are in the Top 8, as they wilted under the constant pressure of the fired-up Tigers.
The Storm last week were tested all the way by the Dolphins, but as they often do, they managed to come out on top. Ryan Papenhuyzen was impressive in his first game back from injury and Jarome Hughes was simply brilliant. They should have Harry Grant back from Origin duties for this clash at home.
You would expect coach Ricky Stuart to have the Raiders up for a better performance this week, but they have been ordinary far too many times this season to think that Stuart actually has the answers. In keeping with my edict of never tipping against the Storm, I am suggesting that they are the surest thing for this week.
Round 17 sure thing: Storm
The toss of the coin
St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Dolphins, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sunday June 30, 2pm (AEST)
The Dragons have had a mixed run of late losing to the Sea Eagles two weeks ago, smashing the Tigers the week before, losing to the Panthers the week before that and being smashed by the Bulldogs the week before that. This game is a must win for them, as they battle to stay in touch with the Top 8. They are currently on 18 points, but in 9th place on points differential.
It's all well and good for the Dragons to aspire to playing finals football, but if you can't beat a team like the Dolphins, who will more than likely be one of your opponents at the end of the year, then there is not much point. The Dragons are 4-2 at home this year, but only one of those wins was at Kogarah.
The Dolphins had a heart-breaking finish to their clash with the Melbourne Storm last week, with coach Wayne Bennett suggesting that they didn't lose, they just ran out of time. They are still well and truly in the running for a vital Top 4 spot and will have marked this game down as a win. They just have to complete the mission against one of Bennett's old teams.
This is a real toss of the coin game, as the bookies odds suggest. If Ben Hunt survives Origin, I think the Dragons can win this one.
Toss of the coin game winner: Dragons
The roughie
Far be it for me to make the same mistake two weeks in a row, but here I go, having tipped the Bulldogs to upset the Roosters last week, I am returning to the same dry well. The Bulldogs had their moments in the slop at Gosford, but made too many errors against a class outfit like the Roosters. They will hopefully have Stephen Crichton back from Origin this week and Viliame Kikau will be better for having had that run against the Roosters.
The Sharks have looked vulnerable lately, having lost three of their past four games to the Dolphins, Eels and Panthers. They will be keen to pick up the two points here to keep themselves in the minor premiership race.
The Bulldogs have yet to lose a game at home, with a perfect 6-0 record, and if everything goes right against the Sharks, they could extend that record.
Round 17 roughie: Bulldogs
Click here for a full guide to Round 17 of the 2024 NRL season