The Australian Boomers head into the next phase of Tokyo with a 3-0 record, and it's do or die from this point on.
The draw has taken place, so next up for Brian Goorjian's team is a quarterfinals matchup against Argentina, who finished in third place in a tough Group C. All things considered, this was the ideal scenario for Australia; avoiding an early Finals Phase game against Spain, and instead facing a team they defeated in an exhibition game in Las Vegas.
Argentina was a silver medalist at the 2019 FIBA World Cup, but just haven't looked close to that team throughout this Olympic cycle. Still, they took Australia down to the wire in their warmup game a few weeks ago -- with some Patty Mills heroics the only separator between the two sides -- so complacency isn't an option for the Boomers.
Here's a breakdown of the matchup, the players to watch, and some of the keys to success.
Australia vs. Argentina tips off at 10pm (AEST) on Tuesday. The game will be played in the Saitama Super Arena.
THE TEAMS, TO THIS POINT
Australia is one of the only undefeated teams left in Tokyo, and they've done it with a mixture of what's worked in the past, and a vital incorporation of new blood. Patty Mills remains the man, and, as expected, is among the tournament's scoring leaders, averaging 21.7 points a game. The Boomers have received a lift from Nick Kay and Jock Landale, both of whom have stepped up in a big way since Baynes went down, while Matisse Thybulle is a wing, two-way presence that changes everything for this team.
There's been an emphasis on defence -- a Goorjian staple -- and Thybulle is the head of that snake, with his versatility on that end of the floor allowing the Boomers to be switchable and junk things up, in order to neutralise what their opponents are trying to do.
The dynamic duo of Luis Scola and Facundo Campazzo have led the way for Argentina, who haven't been able to put it all together, despite a really intriguing group on paper. Campazzo is the floor general who expertly controls the pace for Sergio Hernández's team, while Scola remains as effective as ever for a 41-year-old in his fifth Olympics.
The intriguing thing about Argentina is that they have unique creators like Luca Vildoza and Leandro Bolmaro, but haven't been able to utilise them to the best of their abilities. Argentina is among the tournament's leaders in turnovers (14.0 a game), while also surprisingly being the worst three-point shooting team (29.9 percent from downtown, as a team). They're better on paper than what they've shown, but finally finding their way against a seasoned team like Australia may prove to be too difficult.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Patty Mills
This is Mr. Reliable for Australia. Mills is a scoring savant at this level of basketball, and knows there's a burden on him to have his eyes on the basket more than ever. He's the only consistent creator on the Boomers, and has to continue to be assertive for Australia to move on to the semifinals.
He does it in a variety of ways, whether it's creating off on-balls, recognising mismatches and taking bigger players off the dribble, or wearing out his opponents with his movement off the ball.
One thing to keep an eye on here is the defensive coverage Argentina chooses to utilise. We know they'll be playing up and in Australia's guards, with the hopes of stifling them and making it difficult to get into their sets, but don't be surprised to see Hernández go to a box-and-one to try to neutralise Mills' ability to attack.
Facundo Campazzo
Campazzo hasn't really put a foot wrong for Argentina so far.
He's scoring the ball at an impressive level, and we already know about his ability to get his teammates involved. At the FIBA level, Campazzo is one of the most effective and aesthetically-pleasing point guards to watch, and he's kept it up through this tournament, averaging 16.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists a game.
Against a switchy Australian defence, look for Campazzo to recognise those mismatches for himself and his teammates, and attack them.
Luis Scola
Even at 41, Scola just gets his.
He can pick and roll, pick and pop, work out of the high post, low post; he has every trick in the book. Defensively, there's some to be desired, but he's such an important focal point for this Argentina team, and should be able to go to work against a relatively thin Australian frontline.
Matisse Thybulle
Thybulle shone in the warmup game between these two teams, and there's every chance that happens again.
He's the perfect complementary player for these Boomers because of his athleticism, which allows him to be versatile defensively, as well as push the break. Against an Argentina team that's very prone to coughing up the rock, getting out in transition after live ball turnovers will be key to getting easy points on the board.
Argentina doesn't have too much size, so we may see even more Thybulle at the four-spot; an opportunity for the Boomers to speed up the game.
Nick Kay
Mills has been Australia's most productive player, but it's not unreasonable to say Kay has been the team's most effective.
He's just always in the right spots at the right times. Offensively, he knows his strengths and plays to them, and he's a brick wall on the other end of the floor. With no Baynes, expect Goorjian to lean more on Kay, especially on the defensive end. On Tuesday, he'll likely be the matchup against Scola, so his job will just be to make life difficult for the Argentine legend. Kay also has to have a focus on crashing the boards; something the Boomers struggled with against Germany, but will need to clean up in a game where every possession is more and more crucial.
KEYS TO SUCCESS
Australia
That battle of the boards may not matter as much against a relatively smaller Argentina side, but the possessions matter. The last time these two teams matched up, it was a one-possession game; allowing easy offensive rebounds for an opponent is an easy way to give up this game and be sent home from the Olympics early. The possession game also comes into play when we're looking at an Argentina team that doesn't take care of the ball, against a Boomers team that has Thybulle, the tournament's leader in steals; Australia can put the pressure on, force turnovers, and run.
How the Boomers respond to the pressure Mills is expected to get will also be key. If Argentina goes to a box-and-one, can Australia make them pay? Look for Chris Goulding to see more time if there's a focus on Mills, with an added floor-spacer such a valuable commodity in that instance.
Then, there's the dream of Joe Ingles being in attack mode, which would go a long way toward Australia getting a win in this quarterfinals matchup. He's averaging just under seven three-point attempts, along with 3.7 assists per game; the wing hasn't been as aggressive as the Boomers need him to be, and that will be extremely important moving forward in these Games. The Boomers need that consistent creator outside of Mills, and Ingles needs to step into that role.
If the Boomers can neutralise Scola to the best of their abilities, withstand the attention Mills is expected to get, and make the most of a turnover-prone Argentina team by getting out on the break, then they should be able to book a spot in the semi-finals.
Argentina
If Argentina can fine-tune a few things, then there's scope for them to upset Australia in this one.
The team is better than their 29.9 percent three-point shooting clip; it's not like things will get easier against a tough Australian defence, but snapping out of that slump would be a good start. Then, it's just about taking care of the ball. Again, the Boomers will junk things up and put a lot of pressure on them, but keeping things in the half-court and not giving up easy turnovers will be key to this team staying in the game.
The other question is: who else can step up for Argentina? We have a good idea what Scola, Campazzo, Nicolás Laprovittola, and, to an extent, Gabriel Deck will bring, but can others be a consistent force on the offensive end. This would be a good time for two of the country's big, up-and-coming guards to show their worth; can Vildoza and Bolmaro carry some of that creating load alongside Campazzo? If one or both can, then Argentina is in for a real shot at winning this game.