OKINAWA, Japan - Early in the first quarter of the Australian Boomers' matchup with Germany, Brian Goorjian had an expletive-laden message for his lifeless group.
"F--k, we're playing for our lives," the Boomers head coach yelled in his first timeout of the game.
It was the desperation of a coach who knew that a well-drilled and seasoned German team would pounce on uncharacteristic lapses from his team, but he might not have realised how prescient he was.
That's because, thanks to Australia's 85-82 loss to Germany on Sunday evening, they now really are playing for their lives. It's practically do-or-die from here on out for the Boomers, who still have a heap of questions to answer if they're to progress deep into the 2023 FIBA World Cup.
Relying on a deep roster of NBA players, or heroics from your best scorer, or reputation won't cut it in a World Cup with so many high-quality teams - France just learned that the hard way; now eliminated from the tournament - so diagnosing the issues and treating them as quickly as humanly possible is priority No. 1 for Goorjian and co. following Sunday's defeat.
The slow starts are becoming a thing
We saw it against France during their warmup game schedule. We saw it against Finland to open the World Cup. And, we saw it on Sunday night.
The Boomers are developing a nasty habit of digging themselves into holes early in games.
This time, it was a an 8-0 Germany run to open the game that forced that quick Goorjian timeout. Germany got two open layups, out-hustled Australia to earn another score, then found a mismatch down low to end up with an uncontested dunk.
Timeout, Australia.
"I don't know what's going on, man," Goorjian yelled to his group in the timeout.
He pointed to Josh Giddey: "Over the top of you with a couple seconds left..."
Goorjian returned his focus to the rest of the team: "F--k, we're playing for our lives. Two dead bodies."
Then, Back to Giddey: "Swallow the f--cking ball.
"Fellas, c'mon now, we've got to pick this up. It's embarrassing."
The ire wasn't misguided either. Germany seemed to play with more urgency, in a moment that required it from both teams. The slow starts have been unusual for a team that's largely been impressive and locked in defensively, and Goorjian knew a voice was needed.
"When I'm hard like that, is when the effort, the controllable stuff is off," Goorjian said postgame.
"I just thought the first five minutes of the game, we had two or three guys on the floor asleep. Off defensively, rebounds, the schemes were a step off. I just needed that timeout to use my voice. Again, that's really the only time I go off. It's been very rare; I think that's the first time since I've had them this year that I've had to do that."
It was only a Patty Mills avalanche in the first quarter - scoring the Boomers' first 13 points of the contest; he would finish with a team-high 21 points - that stopped Germany from running away with this one early, but that sort of shooting explosion isn't something Australia can rely on to get them out of every mess.
Some lineup tweaks worth considering
On one hand, this loss isn't worth completely overreacting to. Germany made tough shots, Australia missed some good looks; and the officiating, while not the decider by any means, didn't seem to go in the Boomers' favour for the second straight game. The circumstances within the tournament are more concerning than their overall play.
Still, some trends seem to be developing, so there has to be some thought into how to buck them.
Offensively, while the Boomers were sneakily a scorching 64 percent from the field, things looked stagnant on that end of the floor, and not for the first time. There's a habit of over-dribbling that Giddey would do well to amend, but there seems to be a bigger issue. This team will lean on Giddey's creation as its main source of offence for the next 15 years, so starting a unit that lacks shooting depth has made things more difficult than they have to be. Matisse Thybulle and Nick Kay aren't natural spot-up shooters, so Germany packed the paint and made it difficult for Australia's guards to score around the rim, with those extra bodies also leading to Boomers turnovers.
Goorjian's early talk of starting Josh Green - widely considered a more traditional three-and-D wing type player, relative to Thybulle - has yet to eventuate, but could be an avenue worth considering. It could be a straight swap with Thybulle at the three-spot, or the Portland Trail Blazer could slide up to the four, with Nick Kay moving to the bench in that scenario. Is the answer Joe Ingles at the four to bring that added spacing. Could we even see someone like Jack White - though not particularly impressive on Sunday - start at the four-spot over Kay to bring a more traditional catch-and-shoot type of figure to that position?
These are also the lineups that would be more effective defensively if the Boomers continue to be extremely switch-heavy with even their non-small-ball lineups.
Kay was consistently switched onto Schröder or Maodo Lo, and the slower-footed big-man had difficultly staying connected to either German guard. Kay is, of course, elite in certain areas, which is why he was a lock to make this team, but some of his deficiencies were loud on Sunday.
"I just try to pick my spot," Schröder told ESPN, on being switched onto Australia's bigs all night long.
"I knew Franz Wagner's out; I knew I got to be a little more aggressive on the offensive end. I just try to make the best play possible, either attack and be aggressive to the rim, or try to get to my three-point shot or pull-up. I just try to be aggressive in the moment."
Lo, 20 points, was full of praise for Schröder, who finished with a game-high 30 points, after consistently getting the best of the Boomers' bigs in isolation: "Seeing Dennis sometimes... being able to break down the defender the way he does, it's a relief sometimes. Games can become extremely stagnant when teams stitch the way they do. With his speed, he's just able to break it down and find ways to get into the lane, create for himself with a layup or force the defence to rotate and kill the ball out. It's extremely impressive to see his speed, his quality, and what he can do as a player."
If the Boomers plan to continue that type of coverage against high-level lead guards throughout this tournament - and they're likely to have Luka Dončić coming up soon - then the best tack may be to start a more mobile player at that spot; it's something that has to be considered, after Sunday's outcome.
Another thing: the Boomers need to lean into Xavier Cooks
And this is especially the case if what we saw on Sunday is how they plan to continue guarding elite creating guards.
But, even beyond that, the Boomers play the closest to their signature brand of basketball when Cooks is on the floor. Defensively, he's mobile and swarming, playing bigger than he is because of his athleticism, while making it difficult for opposing teams with his activity. On the other end, he's the Boomers' most effective big-man creator, and is an elite roller and slipper, creating advantages with his dynamic movement.
"We've been our best with him on the floor," Goorjian said of Cooks.
"We played him a lot tonight, and he was crucial for us tonight, and kept us in the game, and has been tremendous. The small ball lineup, again, and the switching, we keep moving forward with that group.
"The subbing of that group , a lot of times - with Josh Green tonight - is because he hasn't played a lot and he was tired. The same thing with Xavier. A lot of times, you have to get him out of there because he's exhausted. He's crucial for us if we're gonna move forward out of this pool."
Jock Landale not being in Okinawa with his tournament-ending ankle injury has made Cooks that much more important; there's a sense that this team's ceiling is as high as how good the NBL's reigning MVP can become over the course of the World Cup. He has the potential to carry an extremely important load for Australia, and that begins with putting him in lineups where he can be successful.
So, Australia lost. What now?
Let's talk about the implications of this loss.
Next up for the Boomers is the hometown Japan - who just stunned Finland - and that's suddenly become a must-win.
The winner of that game will finish second in Group E. Regardless of Germany's result against Finland, they beat both Australia and Japan so would be ranked above them at the end of the First Round of the Group Phase in the case of a tied win-loss record.
The Boomers are strongly favoured to defeat Japan, which would mean progressing to the Second Round of the Group Phase, likely alongside Germany and the top-two teams in Group F, in what would become Group K. Those other two teams are likely to be Slovenia and Georgia and, while we haven't seen enough games in that group to say this concretely, it's very likely the case: Second Round games are also all must-win contests for the Boomers.
Given the set-back against Germany, the-now likeliest scenario - assuming they win every game from here on out - involves Australia finishing as the second seed in Group K. That outcome would mean the Boomers go on to face the No. 1 team in Group L in the quarterfinals; a matchup which, as of now, is trending heavily toward Canada.
On one hand, Canada has looked great, and have arguably the best player in the World Cup in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On the other, the second-placed team from Group L will likely end up being either Spain or Latvia - who just defeated and eliminated France - so, either way, the Boomers would've been in for one of the toughest matchups this tournament has to offer.