There was an air of inevitability to the U.S. women's national team at the height of its most recent run of success, one that evaporated over the past few years as the squad struggled to keep up with emerging world powers.
It returned with vengeance on Sunday.
The USWNT defeated Germany 4-1 on Sunday to clinch a berth in the knockout rounds of the 2024 Olympics in Paris. It was the USWNT's most emphatic and important victory since head coach Emma Hayes was hired in November, and it served as a warning to the rest of the Olympic field -- and, perhaps, self-confirmation to a squad that endured historic lows throughout the past year -- that the U.S. is back as a true contender.
Forward Sophia Smith scored twice and Mallory Swanson recorded her third goal of the tournament as the Americans jumped on Germany and scored three first-half goals for the second straight match. Lynn Williams came off the bench in the final minutes and added a fourth goal.
Smith's second goal, the dagger just before halftime, was emblematic of the type of fortune for a team that saw everything bounce its way: The shot took a wicked deflection and the ball hit the post to create such an unfathomable backspin that it guided itself across the goal line. It was the definition of everything bouncing the right way for a team, and even if "luck" might be a more cynical term for the moment, the favorable circumstances were entirely of the USWNT's own making.
Smith, Swanson and Trinity Rodman were sensational again as the starting front three of the USWNT, particularly in combination with No. 10 Rose Lavelle, who combined with Rodman on some precise passing to spark the first goal. All three forwards were involved in the opener: Rodman hit the cross, Swanson made the crucial near-post run to pull German defenders out of shape and Smith finished at the back post.
"The first one was right off the training ground," Smith told NBC Olympics afterward. "That's something we've been working on a lot. ... The second one, a little bit of luck, a little bit of things going my way, but I felt like we manifested that luck."
Despite conceding a first-half goal on a long-range effort from Giulia Gwinn -- Germany's best player on the day -- the USWNT left Germany chasing shadows in the second half. The U.S. controlled the tempo of the match as Germany finished with only 0.80 expected goals, per TruMedia. The second half looked more like a possession training exercise for the Americans during large stretches.
There was a swagger to their game as they kept the ball in the second half, one that hasn't been seen in recent years -- certainly not during the 2023 World Cup collapse, but not in the buildup to it, either.
The win over Germany was the first for the U.S. over a top-five world opponent since the last time the two teams met in a November 2022 friendly. The U.S. eked out a 2-1 victory that day in a result filled with relief more than anything; Germany had won the same matchup a few days earlier, and the Americans were aiming to avoid losing four straight matches for the first time after prior losses to England and Spain in fall 2022.
That run of form portended the issues of the 2023 World Cup. Sunday's victory -- indeed, one without midfield general Lena Oberdorf after she tore an ACL earlier this month -- was a resounding return to the days before so many questions surrounded this U.S. squad.
The Americans haven't won a game with such comfort against that strong of an opponent at a major tournament since the 2019 World Cup. Their 2021 bronze medal was marked by survival, with just two wins from six games at that Olympics.
Defensively, center-back Naomi Girma continued her spectacular run of form by cleaning up anything Germany threw at her. She was sensational in shutting down Zambia's Barbra Banda in Thursday's 3-0 victory, a feat that looks even more impressive in retrospect given Banda's hat trick in a 6-5 loss to Australia earlier Sunday.
Emily Sonnett stepped into emergency duty alongside Girma for more than 45 minutes on Sunday after Tierna Davidson left the match with a leg injury, and the U.S. defense didn't miss a beat. Emily Fox played her most consistent game in a U.S. shirt in recent memory as she dealt with German wingers Jule Brand and Klara Bühl switching sides to serve crosses from the flank.
Offensively, the USWNT is peaking at exactly the right time. Swanson, Smith and Rodman have found their form, and each has already found the net at this Olympics, removing a weight of pressure ahead of knockout-stage games that are now guaranteed.
Next up is the group finale against Australia, a rematch of the 2021 bronze-medal game that the U.S. won. Australia's calamitous defending -- eight goals conceded in two games -- makes the Matildas ripe for picking by an American attack that is firing on all cylinders.
Progress will not be linear. It would be unwise to assume the USWNT has gone from a general contender to the gold-medal favorite with one result.
It does, however, look like a team to be feared again. Hayes spoke recently about how opponents are no longer scared of the U.S. given recent results.
A dominant victory over a Germany side ranked fourth in the world is the type of result that will reignite some fear. It might also serve as the true dawn of a new era for the USWNT under Hayes.