Time for regeneration as USWNT ends Matildas' Olympic hopes

It's the hope that kills you. Arguably even more so when the hope has no right to exist.

Nothing about this Olympic campaign suggested the Matildas deserved to make it to the knockout stage at Paris 2024, and there was even less evidence that they would have been any good if they had gotten through.

Wednesday's 2-1 loss the United States in the early game confirmed that the Matildas' fate was no longer in their own hands. A 1-0 win for Canada over Colombia later confirmed the reigning gold medallists' passage through to the quarterfinals -- despite their six-point deduction from the drone scandal -- with Colombia and Brazil nabbing the third-place slots ahead of Australia.

It means the Aussies have exited at the group stage for the first time since Sydney 2000, equalling their worst showing at a Games. And it was their worst performance at a major tournament in some time, certainly in the Tony Gustavsson era.

It sounds silly to suggest there was hope at all, but it was there in the flutter of the heart as the game took so long to restart after Trinity Rodman's opener. When it was found to only be a technological failure -- the VAR centre and the referee couldn't communicate -- that flutter evaporated as quickly as it came.

And when Alanna Kennedy was thrown up top in the final minutes of that game -- that much maligned, ever-present backup plan of Gustavsson's -- and she scored a goal, there was small part of many Aussies that felt: "Surely not. But maybe?"

Hope is why Australian fans get up in the middle of the night to watch their team. Hope is what fuels these athletes to try and win games and silverware.

The hope was there because Ellie Carpenter was inconsolable at the end of the 90 minutes. Hope was there because Kennedy was frustrated -- as shown by her choice words caught by the camera after missing a gilt-edged chance in the dying minutes of the game. Hope was there because Steph Catley, when speaking to Nine postgame, couldn't hide how gutted she was at the prospect of having led the team for the final time at the Olympics.

The thing is hope is powerful, and necessary, but hope alone does not win you football matches. It's a starter. A driver. But not the complete picture.

As the rest of the tournament marches forward, Australia will stay at their group stage exit, looking back at the three group games that will only sharpen in clarity as time progresses. Germany came out of the blocks ferociously and the Matildas were left to play catch up from the get-go. It was always going to be a tough task but the reality was overwhelming.

When the team needed to be composed and clinical, they instead got sucked into a chaos-off with Zambia. Yes, winning the 6-5 game is better than losing the 6-5 game, but a goal-fest was a situation the team shouldn't have found themselves in.

And as the Matildas took on the USWNT, with their fate slipping out of their hands, the sugar high of the Zambia win transitioned into that sick feeling in the stomach.

The Matildas gameplan on Wednesday was to prioritise defence and look for a goal on the counter. After the porosity of the team's first two defensive performances, this game was an improved showing even though yet another goal was conceded from a set piece.

Employing five at the back, with Kaitlyn Torpey included in place of Emily van Egmond, meant the team did look more solid. It was a gameplan that had worked once before, when the Matildas grabbed their only ever victory over the United States back in 2017 at the Tournament of Nations. However, relying on a counter-attack to grab a goal required something this team just didn't have. Without Sam Kerr, attacking opportunities are hard to come by for this Matildas team, whether that be enough bodies, the right final pass, or a stronger finish. In the end, that was never going to be enough against the might of the USWNT.

After a short break, the Matildas will all return to their clubs, ready to slog out another year of domestic football. And while they do, Football Australia will need to plot its next course very carefully because what lies ahead for Australia could set up a new generation for success or failure.

The Matildas will enter the off year of the four-year cycle to which football runs. This time next year, the players will enjoy a well-earned rest after an almost relentless schedule over the past three seasons. But 18 months is a long time. Their next major tournament will be the home Asian Cup of 2026. And in this time, it is likely that the Matildas will go through a process all national teams must go through: regeneration.

With much of the squad in their late 20s to 30s, change is inevitable. Lydia Williams, who announced her retirement before the Olympics is unlikely to be the lone retiree. Other players will find themselves moved along out of the squad, such is the natural life cycle of a team.

The time has come to usher in that next generation of players and afford them time and space to find their feet and learn the ropes of international football, just as all the current players did. The upside and the downside of this process is the timing. These players will get to learn in a less stressful period of the cycle. The opposite side of that coin is that it will be a long time before they are subjected the pressure and intensity of a senior national team tournament.