Daniel Ricciardo's underwhelming start to the 2024 season has become one of Formula One's major talking points.
The 34-year-old Australian's return to Red Bull's second team, known this year as Visa Cash App RB, was supposed to be the first step in a sensational return to the reigning world champions. That Cinderella story appears to have all but disappeared in just three races, though, with many wondering if Ricciardo will even stick with RB for the full season given how things have started.
His rough patch of form is even more stark when compared to his teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, the perennially overlooked man in the other car. Is Ricciardo facing an early exit from RB? And what exactly does Tsunoda have to do to be considered for a step-up to the top team?
Is Ricciardo on thin ice?
A New Zealand Herald article immediately after the Australian Grand Prix suggested Ricciardo has already been issued a two-race ultimatum to improve, otherwise Kiwi driver Liam Lawson will replace him at the Miami Grand Prix. Lawson impressed in his five appearances as Ricciardo's stand-in last year, with a best finish of ninth in Singapore.
A source close to Ricciardo and multiple sources across both of Red Bull's teams told ESPN that the report of an ultimatum had "zero" truth to it. Suggestions of an early exit are premature, but a story like the Herald's is always impossible to write off when it concerns Red Bull; the team has often used stories in the press as a means of motivating underperforming drivers, and Ricciardo's form is already being openly discussed by people at both teams.
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Ricciardo's lack of pace has been poorly timed, with Ferrari's Carlos Sainz claiming a sensational win in Australia and Red Bull team principal Christian Horner suggesting afterward the former Toro Rosso driver could join Red Bull for 2025. ESPN sources with knowledge of the situation have indicated that this scenario is in play.
In the same media session in which he spoke about Sainz, Horner was asked by ESPN if Ricciardo was squandering his opportunity to make that move.
"I think it's still very early in the year to even be thinking about next year," Horner replied. "He's a big boy and he'll pick himself up, but sometimes the F1 driver can be a bit lonely, so a bit of encouragement is never a bad thing."
Horner has always been a supporter of Ricciardo's. He has joked that he almost crashed his car in August 2018 when Ricciardo phoned to say he was leaving Red Bull for Renault in 2019, and has privately maintained that the Aussie nearly destroyed his career by deciding to leave. Ricciardo was held in high regard by the late Red Bull co-founder Dietrich Mateschitz, while sources have told ESPN that Horner believes Ricciardo and Max Verstappen could have remained teammates through to today had he not left.
Horner was surprised by Ricciardo's struggles at McLaren and felt a return to the wider Red Bull programme might get the best out of the eight-time race winner. That belief remains, but sources also told ESPN in Melbourne that Horner will not blindly stick to his guns if there's not a clear turnaround soon. Ricciardo's victory for McLaren at the 2021 Italian Grand Prix and his strong performance at last year's Mexican Grand Prix are clear reminders of what he's capable of on his day, but pointing to a handful of historic results only goes so far in the cutthroat world of F1.
Another reason a knee-jerk reaction is unlikely is Ricciardo's proximity to the $35 million-a-year title partnership with Visa and CashApp. Ricciardo is represented by CAA Sports, which helped broker that particular deal, and sources have told ESPN that his presence in the team helped increase the final number; a testimony to the marketing clout of the man still considered to be the face of Netflix's hit documentary series "Drive to Survive".
While Visa and CashApp do not have the power to block a driver move, the importance of that deal to Red Bull GmbH -- which opted for the title partnership over selling the second team altogether -- gives Ricciardo an extra level of protection. Several sources have even suggested to ESPN that the deal could work against Ricciardo in terms of his Red Bull aspirations -- assuming his form were to improve -- if Visa and Cash App are keen for him to remain as the face of RB.
None of that is to say Ricciardo's position at RB is unassailable. There are no mitigating circumstances to explain his lack of pace in 2024. He has had a full preseason to acclimate to the new car, and yet he does not look comfortable at all. He has not shied away from this narrative and has suggested that he still has a ways to go to feel comfortable with the VCARB 01
"I haven't let any of that maybe negative stuff creep in," Ricciardo said in Melbourne. "I also understand that I didn't expect to start the season like this. Budapest last year, I drove the car a day before, and outqualified Yuki and had a really strong race with no knowledge [of the car]. Having a full preseason and all that, and all the races last year, I honestly thought that this year, we would start a lot stronger.
"I think the important thing is that I stay on course. It's not that my head is filled with nonsense or anything. I honestly feel good, and just unfortunately the results haven't made me feel awesome, but deep down behind the wheel, I do feel good and excited. I just want to keep racing. I'm sure I'll find a bit more in myself, and I still believe maybe we'll find a little something on the car."
Making Ricciardo's inability to deliver obvious is the electric form of the man driving the identical car on the other side of the RB garage.
Yukimania
Now that Sainz is finally getting the recognition he deserves, Tsunoda has a very strong case to be F1's most underrated driver. His seventh position at the Australian Grand Prix underlined that fact. On form alone, Tsunoda is the RB driver who looks most worthy of driving the same car as Verstappen next year, but he still appears to be a long way down the list of potential candidates to replace Sergio Pérez, should the company decide to go in that direction. It remains one of the most puzzling situations in F1.
Hype around Tsunoda exploded when he finished ninth on his debut at the 2021 Bahrain Grand Prix. A patchy 2022 followed, but since the start of 2023, he has been one of the grid's most consistent drivers.
Sources close to Tsunoda have told ESPN that he was frustrated by coverage of him in 2023, when he felt he comfortably beat all three of his teammates -- De Vries, Ricciardo and Lawson -- but was never given the credit for doing so. The stopwatch doesn't lie, and this year Tsunoda has outqualified Ricciardo 3-0 and has looked to be a step ahead in terms of race pace.
Tsunoda did himself no favours with his behaviour after the Bahrain Grand Prix, when he was angry about a team order to let Ricciardo through for an inconsequential position. He has since vowed to stop pressing his radio button when he feels frustrated in the race car in a bid to change how people see him. This is a smart approach: multiple sources have told ESPN that Red Bull's biggest concern regarding Tsunoda is his temperament.
Sources within Red Bull have told ESPN that Horner has never been convinced that Tsunoda would cope well in the pressure-cooker environment alongside Verstappen. Horner alluded to this last year on the "eff won" podcast with Dax Shepard, joking about Tsunoda's profanity-laden messages on his first test with Red Bull before he joined the programme.
One reason that Pérez has not been dismissed is that he ruffles no feathers internally and is considered incredibly easy to work with. Even when Pérez was struggling so mightily last year, it was Ricciardo, not Tsunoda, who was consistently linked to the seat.
Changing the perception of his fiery temperament seems to be the biggest obstacle in his way at the moment. And it seems as though Horner is going to take some convincing.
"Yuki's a very quick driver, we know that, but I think we want to feel the best pairing that we can in Red Bull Racing and sometimes you've got to look outside the pool as well," he said in Melbourne of Tsunoda's chances of joining Red Bull in 2025. "You've had a very fast unemployed driver win today. The market is reasonably fluid with certain drivers."
While that was an obvious reference to Sainz, sources have also told ESPN that Horner is open to the idea of bringing Albon back to the team for which he drove in 2019 and 2020. That would likely mean another year for Pérez so the Thai driver could see out his contract at Williams.
Where all that would leave Tsunoda is hard to say. Many have speculated Tsunoda will follow Honda to Aston Martin in 2026, but that is far from a sure thing. Team owner Lawrence Stroll's commitment to son Lance Stroll's F1 career means there is only one seat in play, and sources have told ESPN that Aston Martin are still in contention for Sainz's signature. They could also extend Fernando Alonso to a longer deal if he does not join Mercedes.
Both scenarios would leave Tsunoda out in the cold. And multiple sources close to Tsunoda have told ESPN that he wants to prove himself within the Red Bull programme rather than just be labelled as a driver who follows Honda wherever they go.
The next few weeks might well bring clarity on the situation around Pérez's seat, with driver market movement truly kicking off in the weeks leading into the Miami Grand Prix in early May.