Entering the 2024 season the pressure was already on Waratahs coach Darren Coleman to find results, and quickly, after a disappointing 2023 as he fought for his contract extension.
Now, 2-10 and sitting as wooden spooners at the bottom of the ladder following another disastrous loss to the Western Force on Saturday night, the axe has finally fallen, and Coleman will coach just two further games for NSW.
So what went wrong for Coleman and the Tahs?
INJURY CRISIS
It was perhaps an omen of what was to come for the Waratahs when centre Lalakai Foketi was left prone on the turf at their Daceyville training ground with a suspected spinal injury just two days out from their season opener against the Queensland Reds.
While he'd thankfully be cleared of any serious damage and make his return weeks later, it was a sign of things to come at Daceyville as more and more players were struck down by injury.
Before a ball had even been kicked for the 2024 season, the Waratahs' injury list was already 11 players deep, including big name forwards Ned Hanigan and Lachie Swinton, and two season-ending injuries in David Porecki (Achillies) and Mesu Kunavula (knee). It would grow so long by week 12 Coleman would be forced to request a player loan deal with the Melbourne Rebels for Pone Fa'amausili for a match.
While injuries hit every side at different times, the injury list at the Waratahs cannot simply be attributed to "bad luck"; it must have Rugby Australia raising their eyebrows and investigating just how the team has prepared both in the preseason and then week to week in Super Rugby Pacific.
As the season wore on, the dominoes have continued to fall, particularly in the front-row where season-ending injuries have befallen all 10 of their contracted front-rowers with Harry Johnson-Holmes, the last contracted prop, rupturing his Achillies for a second time two weeks ago.
First it was replacement hooker Mahe Vailanu, who'd been pushed into the starting role, who went down with a knee injury in the Tahs loss to the Rebels in Round 6. Angus Bell soon followed a week later injuring his troublesome toe, before Daniel Botha (Achilles), Theo Fourie (foot) and third choice hooker Julian Heaven (shoulder) were all ruled out for the season by Round 12.
Add Ned Slack-Smith (concussion), Max Jorgensen (hamstring), Hayden Thompson-Stringer (knee), Archer Holz (shoulder), Thomas Lambert (knee), Tom Ross (knee) and just this weekend Lewis Ponini who came off early with a leg injury, it's understandable why Coleman has so often had his head in his hands when shown on the big screen.
In all, 16 frontline players have been sidelined, 13 for the season.
While injuries are part of the game, the crisis at the club has only been compounded by a lack of cohesion and poor player management, as most dishearteningly many of the injuries have come on the training paddock.
Pushing players who regularly play 40 or 50-minute stints to over 70 minutes across multiple weeks will only see issues arise down the track, as was seen in Johnson-Holmes' recent sidelining, while shoehorning players from Shute Shield to professional level with little time to adjust brings about another set of problems, their bodies asked to keep up with the pace and physicality of Super Rugby when perhaps they are not yet prepared for the jump in standard.
Whether it is bad luck or poor management, or likely a mixture of both, the buck stops with the head coach.
PLAYER CONFIDENCE SHOT
Once Mark Nawaqanitawase, arguably Australia's next big star, signed to move to NRL club the Sydney Roosters in December last year it was a sure sign just how dire the situation had become at the Waratahs.
One of the best performers last season, his decision to ditch the code sent warning signs of a team that had lost all confidence in their coach. For the following 13 weeks Nawaqanitawase has not been the same player, unable to assert himself on matches, the winger eventually dropped by Coleman. It took until the weekend's game against the Force for him to score his first try of 2024.
He's not the only one seeking to leave the sinking ship though. Captain Jake Gordon requested a release from his contract, which Rugby Australia rejected, while Will Harrison and Ned Hanigan have found the eject button, signing in Japan and France respectively, joining Lachie Swinton who signed with Bordeaux at the end of last year. Meanwhile, sources have told ESPN, another senior player is also no longer happy at the club despite signing a contract extension early last year.
Gordon's request for a release is particularly damning, given how committed the Waratahs skipper has been to the franchise in recent years. Part of the group that went winless in 2021, Gordon stuck by NSW and remains one of the team's few consistent performers.
Given recent developments, it appears his patience and trust has run out.
While Coleman had the wider backing and support of the squad at the start of the season, sources told ESPN that had all but evaporated by Round 5 when NSW were beaten by the Drua in golden point in Fiji.
That it has taken the Waratahs board and by extension Rugby Australia this long to act afterwards does not reflect well on either party. And NSW have been on a rapid decline ever since.
SO WHERE TO NOW? WHO COMES IN?
The writing was on the wall for Coleman weeks ago, even if RA and NSW Rugby dragged their feet in making the decision, and the sacked coach was the first to admit at his press conference that their decision not to extend his contract came as no surprise.
"It wasn't out of the blue like everyone with the review going on and then where we're sitting on the ladder, you don't have to be Einsten to figure out that there may be changes," Coleman said on Tuesday.
"It wasn't a major shock for the lads. I think the buck always stops at the head coach, so I'm happy to take that responsibility."
With the decision out of the way, eyes now turn to who fills the vacant position as the club scrambles to build a roster for next year.
Michael Cheika is the first name to come to many lips with the former Waratahs coach the only person to lead the club to a title in their history. Leaving his role with Argentina following last year's World Cup, he was floated to return as Wallabies coach and now remains available for a rescue job for a second time.
NSW Rugby CEO Paul Doorn refused to mention any specific names at their press conference on Tuesday, instead stating there were plenty of potential candidates.
One of which is Daniel Halangahu, who ESPN understands has been floated to the players, but his interest in the role is unknown, with the former Waratahs fly-half and Blues assistant coach telling ESPN earlier this year he remained committed to staying in New Zealand.
But while a change in coach brings with it a sweet sugar rush like we've seen so many times previously, it's unlikely it'll provide much change for the long term unless NSW Rugby begin to get the backroom set-up right from head coach, high-performance and general manager down.