The third Asian Cup proved to be the charm for Graham Arnold. After failing in his first two attempts to coach Australia to a win in their opening game of the continental showpiece -- a 1-1 draw with Oman back in 2007 and a 1-0 loss to Jordan in 2019 -- the Socceroos boss finally put in a win in the ledger with his side downing India 2-0 in the opening game of their 2023 tilt.
Indeed, before everything else, that's the major and most positive thing that came out of Saturday evening's contest. No, not Arnold getting the monkey off his back -- although on some level he's probably glad for that -- but that Australia was able to get the win. Major tournaments are where outcome dependency is the ultimate authority in analysis, and given that three nations were able to advance through to the knockout stages of the 2019 Asian Cup with only three points to their names, there's an outside chance the Socceroos already booked a place in the last 16 with the victory.
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In less promising analysis, however, the Socceroos that emerged triumphant at the Ahmed bin Ali Stadium didn't yet look like a unit capable of going on to win the tournament. Though second-half goals from Jackson Irvine and Jordy Bos delivered a victory, much of the contest saw them come across as the unit that sputtered and stumbled over the line in World Cup qualifying during the 2022 men's World Cup cycle, the unit that was held to draws in eminently winnable games against China and Oman before memories were memories were wiped away by the magic run that followed.
The Socceroos spent 50 minutes hurling themselves against a deep-lying Blue Tiger defence on Saturday, with little to show for it. And when they did eventually find a breakthrough it had less to do with any kind of vivacious incisiveness but instead an error from Indian custodian Gurpreet Singh Sandhu, who flapped at his attempt to clear a Martin Boyle cross and sent it straight into the path of Irvine. The St. Pauli skipper excels in those situations, crashing the back of the box and getting the second ball, and he promptly made no mistake.
Whereas a preliminary look at the stat sheet would suggest that the Indians were perhaps blessed to escape with just a two-goal deficit, the reality was that while the Socceroos did finish with 71% of possession and 28 shots on goal, only six of these efforts were struck on target. Only two, those that ended up finding the net, were of the type that could be considered clear-cut. Australia's longstanding issues with breaking down embedded defences -- it's not just a Socceroos thing, it's widespread throughout the local game -- came roaring back into focus as India sat back in a deep 4-5-1 defensive block, one made stout by coach Igor Štimac instilling within his side a level of effort, desperation and desire to get in front of anything and everything; leading by example, Sandesh Jhingan was immense.
Australia were ponderous in possession and reliant on volume crossing in trying to break this down and, on the occasions where they did try to increase ball speed and play through, often sloppy and uncomposed in the contracted space the Indian defence was forcing them to work in. At times it felt like their best path to goal in that opening half came from rare moments where India was trying to build up from the back and the Socceroos could press and feast on a turnover. An immediate counter-press is one of the hallmarks of a high possession game, of course, but generally not preferred as its most creative outlet.
"We had to be patient. These games are cagey when teams play deep," Irvine said post-match.
Of course, given the sheer gulf in quality between the two teams, a goal did feel like it would eventually arrive for the Australians, to say nothing of the auguring effect of the weight of territory they were being afforded. Yet when Irvine did eventually strike, it presented as a goal born of attrition more than anything the Socceroos did. Better sides can and have punished the Socceroos for their bluntness and while India had a blueprint, they weren't quite able to land a blow on Arnold's side.
"There's a lot to improve on," Arnold said. "That's no doubt and the boys know that. When you get a team together, they play all around the world, they play at different clubs, they have different styles. Everything is different and the hardest thing to do is to gel them together with the ball.
"Defensively it's easier to get them together. But the patience, the timing, the runs, and the movement off the ball and those types of things are not easy to do. We can improve on everything and the boys know that. We have our standards and I have high expectations for the players and their performances and those expectations and standards need to be met."
Concerningly for the coach, his side's ability to punish sides from set pieces, something he had emphasised in the days before the opening game and something that every opponent of the Socceroos recognises as one of the main threats they possess, was almost completely absent from the contest. Often it's Australia's ace in the hole, its backdoor to goal when open play isn't working. But though they would win a massive 14 corners to zero by the end of the game -- 12 of which came in the first half -- as well as a free kick in a perfect position to threaten, they produced effectively nothing with those chances. This mostly came down to service, with multiple deliveries failing to beat the first defender or sent in directions that couldn't easily be turned goalward, with a healthy dose of Indian desperation thrown in.
"You've got to give credit to India, the way they set up themselves for those set pieces for the corners," Arnold said. "We had 12 in the first half with not much variety. So that's something that we need to improve on. And we will."
Of course, Australia did triumph. Let's not get too down on that. It's important to note that none of the above means that the Socceroos can't improve in the games ahead and reach the kind of level that will be needed to stage a deep run this time around. If nothing else, the nature of Arnold's system means navigating to a stage where better opposition is faced means there will be better performances because there will be more open games and, as a result, transition -- as well as the opportunity to assume an underdog role. And teams growing into tournaments is absolutely a thing; Australia got out of the group at the World Cup after losing 4-1 to France.
Beyond the general improvements in chemistry that Arnold noted, one such avenue could be in the form of substitutes Bos, Riley McGree, and Bruno Fornaroli. While it needs to carry a disclaimer after Irvine's game-changing opener and with their legs increasingly fraying from their defensive work, that trio of substitutes seemed to give a real lift to the side when they came on -- the Socceroos' second goal delivered by McGree driving inside, Fornaroli making a darting run into space to collapse the defence around him, and Bos cooly meeting McGree's resulting pass for his first international goal.
Certainly in fixtures where Arnold expects to have more of the ball -- the coach highlighting that he expects that Syria will cede possession in their coming fixture -- moves to incorporate McGree and his aggressive movement between the lines and higher up the pitch are certainly worth exploring, as is Bos' dynamic presence down the left. Fornaroli and another substitute in Sam Silvera also flashed signs, and if you're going to be playing hard-running, late arriving midfielders the former's ability to hold the play up could prove useful.