SAITAMA, Japan -- Are you a glass half-full person or a glass half-empty one? When you watched Australia somehow escape Saitama Stadium with a point after holding a previously perfect Japan to a 1-1 draw, did you see a gritty, determined masterclass? Or did you observe a side whose struggles in possession meant that it was given little choice but to bunker down by opponents who on another, more ruthless day, emerges with three points?
Well, the good news is that because this is the real world, with all the pesky nuances that this entails, as opposed to the more satisfying but ultimately shallow domain of absolutes, you don't have to settle for either. Yes, despite the eventual draw, Tuesday's fixture served as yet another reminder of the technical gulf Japan have increasingly opened with the Socceroos. But after one of the more disruptive months one could concoct, Australia also defended in a manner that allowed them to do what no other side has been able to do during Asia's 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers in forcing the Samurai Blue to both concede and drop points. And remarkably, after China's win over Indonesia and Saudi Arabia's draw with Bahrain, Tony Popovic's side also maintained their improbable hold on second place in Group C.
That's a huge positive, and it's ok to celebrate it.
Admittedly, it wasn't an Australian who scored the visitors' goal: Shogo Taniguchi inexplicably handed the Socceroos the lead in the 58th minute when he sliced an attempt to clear Lewis Miller's cross. And maybe it's appropriate that the first side to score against Japan after 868 minutes of qualification games was Japan themselves.
But you don't win the raffle if you don't buy a ticket. And fortune wouldn't have smiled upon the Australians' go-ahead goal if they hadn't battened down the hatches to that point before seizing upon a rare opportunity to get forward, nor would it have given its blessing had Mitchell Duke not busted a gut to get into the box and provide the presence that induced Taniguchi to attempt to clear, nor if Jason Geria hadn't risen to deliver a powerful, headed retort to Zion Suzuki's attempt to find Takumi Minamino.
Further, if one wanted to attach a disclaimer to the Socceroos' goal, the same must be applied to the Samurai Blue's: Cameron Burgess inadvertently turning the ball into his net with 14 minutes to go after he attempted to prevent substitute Keito Nakamura's sharp cutback from finding the boot of the arriving Ayase Ueda. And despite the handy domination of both territory and possession that they enjoyed over the visitors -- the extent of which, combined with the ability to bring players like Nakamura off the bench, meant that the goal they eventually scored came as little surprise -- Japan found themselves largely ineffectual when it came time to dealing an actual hammer blow to their opponents.
Yes, there were moments of excitement but though his side ended the game with 65% of the ball and 12 shots to one, Hajime Moriyasu's unit only produced three efforts on target and, per Opta, produced just 0.77 expected goals (xG). Across a first half that ended with them holding 71% possession, they had produced 0.28 xG and a single effort on target.
"It wasn't pretty," said Duke, who produced Australia's only effort of the game with a wayward 12th-minute header. "And we knew we had to just bunker in and do the defensive and dirty work and really match it physically."
Heat for this, inevitably, will be on Moriyasu, questioning if, in the big games, he can get Japan scoring the goals they need to win. But equally, Geria was calm, assured, and seemingly ever-present whenever Japan were getting forward, hands tucked firmly behind his back as he moved to block or pressure a shot and short of injury, it's difficult to see how he's not starting in November. Harry Souttar, meanwhile, was a tower, making a series of crucial interventions and recording the most clearances in a Socceroos shirt in more than six years. Jordan Bos was dogged defensively and a bastion of positivity and purpose in possession, a spark when there wasn't a lot of that going around for the Socceroos.
And therein lies the rub. The temperance to the excitement. Possession. Australia defended strongly on Tuesday, as they almost always do, but they also did so because they had to. Their organisation, effort and solidarity gave insight into some of their greatest strengths as a team, as well as some of the great virtues of Popovic as a coach (if you need a point away in Asia, there are few you'd rather call) but it was also necessary because, quite simply, Australia couldn't keep the ball.
Geria, Souttar, Bos, Miller, and -- own-goal aside -- Burgess had strong games because so often the Socceroos' inability to play through the Japanese press meant they were scrambling to make a desperate last-second tackle or intervention. Just one Socceroo touched the ball in Japan's penalty areas across the 90 minutes and that individual, Bos, only did so on one occasion. The only shot they created was a 20-yard header from Duke, off target and off a free kick, in the 12th minute of play.
At 34 years and 221 days, Luke Brattan became the oldest Socceroos debutant in history when he was tapped to start next to Jackson Irvine but he seemed to struggle with the speed of the game and his opponents when in possession, responsible for several turnovers that led to opportunities for the Samurai Blue. His call-up was a great story, one that could have come long ago but his replacement with Patrick Yazbek at half-time -- the second time in as many games Popovic has acted after just 45 minutes -- seemed an acknowledgment by the Socceroos boss that Brattan's deployment wasn't working, with the 22-year-old replacement looking solid in the second half.
Ultimately, however, the four points gleaned from the current window, regardless of how they were earned, represents a win for Australia. A month ago, they were losing to Bahrain and drawing with Indonesia. Just over a week after that Graham Arnold was resigning. Coming into Tuesday, Popovic had only had four training sessions with his full squad and, making matters worse, heavy traffic meant they emerged to do their warm-up less than half an hour before Tuesday's kickoff. And yet somehow, they're heading home with four points, have blotted Japan's copybook for the first time in 2026 qualifying, with the group seemingly buying into the transition away from Arnold's "Socceroos family" to their new coach's more austere approach. The Socceroos are right back in the mix for automatic qualification,
Utilising his new 3-4-2-1 formation, there was attacking promise, predominantly in the second half, against China -- a lower-ranked opponent parking the bus -- last Thursday. On Tuesday, it was a shape that shifted to use a bus of its own against a well-credentialed foe in Japan. And with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain now to come in November, the challenge for Popovic will be to maintain the latter's solidity while building on the attacking virtues of the former.
Thus, in context, it's been a good first window for Popovic and his players, one with promise for the years of the head. But how progress is measured, inevitably, will be shaped by what has come before.
"We have to improve our all areas," said Popovic. "It's not just creativity. We have to improve all over the park because we are aspiring to be challenging Japan, challenging them regularly, as the best team in Asia. To do that, we know we have to improve.
"But if you look at just today, that's a fantastic display, brilliant display today. Hopefully, that gives players confidence moving forward, that we're building a foundation."