Will world No. 1 and defending champ Jannik Sinner win again? Or can Alexander Zverev capture his first Grand Slam title? Our experts weigh in on who will win the Australian Open men's title.
What can Sinner do to defeat Zverev?
Jarryd Barca: Stock up on pickle juice. After battling cramping issues during his semifinal win over Ben Shelton -- not to mention his struggles against Holger Rune in the fourth round -- Sinner needs to ensure his body is fully recovered against a player like Zverev, who loves long, grueling rallies. Sinner is the one to beat, but his best chance still lies in keeping points shorter, taking the initiative early, and avoiding the long grind of a Zverev match. Maintain that health, hit those scintillating line-clipping winners, and claim back-to-back Australian Open titles.
Bill Connelly: Be ready to grind. It's the one thing you're guaranteed in a match against Zverev. The past three matches they've played have all gone the distance, and seven of their past 16 sets have finished either 7-5 or 7-6. They've played only once since Sinner became Sinner, the best player in the world, last year; he won in Cincinnati, but it was 7-6, 5-7, 7-6. Sinner has the most effective serve in the world, but Zverev always lands his first serve and holds almost as much. His game plan will be to hold, prolong points and make Sinner suffer. Sinner has to hold up.
D'Arcy Maine: Is it too obvious to say, "Exactly what he's done all tournament?" Or, exactly like he did against everyone at the US Open or the ATP Finals? Or, perhaps most specifically, what he did against Zverev in their last meeting in a marathon semifinal match in Cincinnati in August? Everything Sinner has done in recent months -- from his calm demeanor to his proficient ball striking -- has been almost textbook. Sinner said it will be a mental battle Sunday and, as he has shown no signs of nerves or fear throughout, if he can stay the course, this is his title to win again.
Jake Michaels: If Sinner continues playing as he has played over the past 12 months, he will give Zverev little chance to win. The world No. 1 is becoming virtually unbeatable at the hard-court majors, winning 20 straight matches, 14 of those in straight sets. This fortnight at Melbourne Park, Sinner has been striking the ball as cleanly as ever, refusing to make errors, and attacking with pinpoint precision. Expect more of the same in Sunday's final.
What can Zverev do to defeat Sinner?
Barca: Be more decisive. To overcome the world No. 1, Zverev must strike the right balance between consistency and aggression; he cannot rely on grinding down Sinner -- especially if he recovers from that semifinal cramping and is at full health. Zverev's first serve has been excellent this tournament so maintaining that weapon is critical, too. But he needs to know when to play assertively, step inside the baseline at the right moments and seize the opportunities when they're there -- something he seemed reluctant to do in that first set against Novak Djokovic. It's hard to dictate points against the world's best player, but you don't win Grand Slams without taking risks in the big moments. He can't hope Sinner falters. He has to have awareness to go for his shots.
Connelly: Take your shots when you have them. Zverev has proven he can grind and play sufferball as well as anyone and outlast all but the best opponents. That makes him almost upset-proof -- and against an injured Djokovic in the semis, he stretched the first set to 80 minutes and took away any will Djokovic had to continue. But even last year, when he finished No. 2 in the world, he went just 2-5 against top-five opponents. In last year's French Open final, he hit just 53 winners to Carlos Alcaraz's 71, and he saved just 44% of break points while Alcaraz faced more but saved 74% of them. It's going to be hard to wear down Sinner with patience. When Zverev has a winner in his sights, he needs to take it, and when he forces a break point, he needs to win it.
Maine: After Zverev lost to Alcaraz in five sets in the French Open final in June, he admitted he felt fatigued after the match and knew he needed to make changes to compete with the best in the world for the biggest titles. He did that, bringing back his former physical trainer and emphasizing stamina and endurance during his practices and in the preseason. And that noticeable improvement could be the key for him Sunday. Sinner has largely cruised back to the final and hasn't had to play five sets on hard court since last year's final(!) in Melbourne. If Zverev can push Sinner to a decider, he might wear him down and get the victory.
Michaels: Zverev has beaten Sinner four times in his career, so he'll know he has the tools to prevail over the world No. 1. But you would have to think if Zverev is to capture his maiden Grand Slam title Sunday, his serve will need to be strong. The German has won so many cheap points this fortnight thanks to landing 71% of his first serves, easily the best of anyone who made it past the fourth round of the tournament. If he can serve with that type of efficiency, and enjoy some relatively pain-free service games, it will put the pressure on Sinner.
Who will win?
Barca: This has marathon written all over it. Look at the last meeting between the two, a three-set epic that lasted more than three hours in Cincinnati. This can go either way, but how can you go against a player who has 20 straight hard-court wins at the Grand Slam level? You can't until he gives you a reason. Sinner in five sets, but Zverev will push him to the brink.
Connelly: Zverev is good enough at the sufferball routine that if Sinner isn't dialed in, or if there's uncertainty in his legs, Zverev could take advantage. But we have no evidence that Sinner won't be dialed in. He has won 13 in a row in Melbourne, and he has won 20 in a row at hard-court Slams. He's the best player in the world, and I don't go against a winning streak. Sinner in four.
Maine: Sinner in four. Zverev will enter the match slightly fresher after playing just one set against Djokovic in the semis, and has ample major final experience, but it's hard to think anyone can stop Sinner. He's playing near-flawless tennis and his third major title feels inevitable Sunday.
Michaels: Yes, it's early days, but Sinner's record on hard courts is becoming Novak Djokovic-esque. He seems to raise his game in the biggest moments, and I'm expecting more of the same against Zverev. It will be tight and grueling, but Sinner will prevail in four entertaining sets.
Betting the men's final
Pamela Maldonado: It's a battle of contrasting styles as Sinner brings his aggressive baseline game against Zverev's big-serve approach. Both players have had standout runs to reach this stage, but their paths have highlighted some key strengths and exposed vulnerabilities that will shape the outcome. Let's break it down and get to my prediction for how this clash will unfold.
This final has all the makings of a Sinner statement. The Italian is red-hot, riding a 20-match hard-court Grand Slam win streak with two major titles from 2024. Sinner doesn't just show up to win, he shows up to dominate. With his lethal groundstrokes and aggressive baseline play, he has the arsenal to exploit Zverev's defensive, passive style. If Sinner gets to dictate the terms, this match will be his for the taking.
Zverev is in the Australian Open final for the first time in 10 tries, but this year's journey hasn't been without bumps. Against Tommy Paul, he flirted with disaster in the first two sets, even admitting he "should have been down two sets to love." Add in mental meltdowns -- like losing his cool over a point being replayed because of a feather on the court -- and you're left with a player who is vulnerable under pressure. Then there's his semifinal against Djokovic, where he failed to capitalize against an injured opponent, advancing only after Djokovic retired upon losing the first set 6-7. That marathon first set lasted 85 minutes, and despite winning the tiebreak, Zverev still looked like the one playing catch-up. If he struggled in those situations, how's he going to handle a relentless Sinner, who brings power and precision?
Sinner thrives on consistent, rhythmic play, and Zverev's conservative approach isn't the way to disrupt it. Allowing Sinner to settle into his groove is a recipe for disaster. To stand a chance, opponents need to keep him off-balance by using varied tactics, but that's not Zverev's style.
Sinner's game is perfectly designed to exploit every weakness in Zverev's while also countering his strengths. Zverev's big serve? Sinner's aggressive return game neutralizes it with ease. His elite movement allows him to transition seamlessly from defense to offense, covering the court effortlessly. Sinner's ability to chase down tough shots can take the sting out of Zverev's power, stripping him of one of his biggest weapons. And those long rallies paired with Zverev's passive baseline play? That's Sinner's sweet spot, where he takes control by dictating the tempo.
The Pick: Sinner vs. Zverev UNDER 40.5 games (-120)
This matchup sets up nicely for the under. Whether Sinner bulldozes through the early sets or capitalizes on Zverev's inevitable lapses, it seems like Sinner will control the pace and end this match quickly. A straight-sets win? Very much on the table. Four sets? Even then, it's hard to see this match going over 40.5 games, even with a tiebreak. Zverev might have his moments, but Sinner should seal this one without much drama. Expect another Sinner showcase, where he covers the -4.5-game spread and wins his third Slam title in four sets.