The 2024 WNBA playoffs tip off Sept. 22. If the regular season ended today, what would it take for each of the eight teams currently in playoff position to win the league title?
The first-place New York Liberty, who have won seven in a row and are the only team so far to clinch a playoff spot, just have to keep being who they have been: the league's best team this season.
"I think what I want to see from our team is just the way we continue to get better," New York's Breanna Stewart said after the Liberty's 94-74 victory over the Dallas Wings on Tuesday. "Everybody keeps saying, 'Oh, you guys clinched the playoffs. Why are you still playing hard?' We want to keep that 1 spot, we want home-court advantage. And you saw it today, with two quarters we kept Dallas under 20.
"I feel like we haven't done anything yet. Our record is great, of course, but there's so much we need to get better at, and we don't want to peak too soon."
The Las Vegas Aces are in fourth place in the standings, but as two-time defending champions, they are perceived as next in line on the list of favorites to win the 2024 title.
Since the WNBA launched in 1997, the league hasn't been known for many major upsets in the playoffs or unexpected teams winning the title. But it has happened. As recently as 2021, the No. 6 seed Chicago Sky, who had a .500 regular-season record that year, won the championship over the No. 5 seed Phoenix Mercury.
But since the league moved in 2016 to a playoff format that seeds the top eight teams overall -- rather than the field being split between the Eastern and Western conferences with the top four teams from each -- every title except 2021 has been won by a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Still, getting into the playoffs at least means a team has a chance to win it all. Here's a look at how the current top eight teams measure up as title contenders, listed in order of what we think their odds of taking the championship are.
1. New York Liberty (24-4)
Current place in standings: 1
Previous titles: None
New York has played for the title five times, including last season's 3-1 WNBA Finals loss to Las Vegas. The Liberty reached the Commissioner's Cup final in June, falling to Minnesota after having won the title last year. Overall, New York has been very impressive in 2024, getting high-level performances from guard Sabrina Ionescu and forwards Stewart and Jonquel Jones. The Liberty and coach Sandy Brondello also have a good sense of what they need and can get consistently from their bench. That showed again Tuesday, as Ionescu was out with neck soreness and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton has not yet returned from knee surgery. But the experience of playing together one more season has built the Liberty's confidence, too.
The Liberty have had their disappointments as a franchise, but staying focused on the present and the opportunity they have is the key. This group is very capable of doing that. New York fans have waited a long time, but this could be the payoff.
2. Las Vegas Aces (17-9)
Current place in standings: 4
Previous titles: 2022, 2023
The way things stand now, the Aces and Liberty -- who finished 1 and 2 last season in the standings -- could meet in the semifinals, which would be a blockbuster. Las Vegas lost just six regular-season games last season, so this year's team has struggled more. Point guard Chelsea Gray's absence from the lineup until July 2 due to injury had a big impact on why Las Vegas didn't play as well as expected earlier in the season.
But with Gray back, A'ja Wilson in the midst of a near-certain MVP season and Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum also among the league's elite, the Aces are still a formidable force. Veteran Tiffany Hayes returning from retirement to join the Aces helps, too, as does Las Vegas' championship experience under coach Becky Hammon. And maybe it will benefit the Aces to not be considered the clear favorite this year.
3. Minnesota Lynx (19-8)
Current place in standings: 3
Previous titles: 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017
The Lynx lead the WNBA in defensive rating and won the Commissioner's Cup final over New York in June. Napheesa Collier is one of the league's top players, averaging a double-double. Fellow forward Alanna Smith has built on her breakthrough season last year in Chicago, and guard Courtney Williams, who also was previously with the Sky, has been a good fit in Minnesota, too. Guard Kayla McBride is having one of her best seasons in her 11th year in the league.
The Lynx just traded for forward Myisha Hines-Allen, who won a title with Washington in 2019. She's a reliable post presence who should mesh well with what the Lynx do. Minnesota won all four of its titles under current coach Cheryl Reeve, so she knows the steps to get there.
4. Connecticut Sun (20-7)
Current place in standings: 2
Previous titles: none
The Sun's core trio of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones has been bolstered by career-best seasons from guards DiJonai Carrington and Tyasha Harris. The Sun, who started the season 9-0, traded for guard Marina Mabrey on July 17 to add more scoring spark, and she has played well for Connecticut so far.
The Sun continue to be one of the league's most reliably strong defensive teams. Can they keep that up and boost the offense a little more? And is there something this team can do a little better than past Sun teams that have come close to winning championships but never been able to break through? The Sun have never quite gotten that one extra "break" going their way that might have tipped the scales in their favor in past WNBA Finals appearances. But led by savvy vets Thomas and Bonner, they will battle to the buzzer with anybody.
5. Phoenix Mercury (15-13)
Current place in standings: 6
Previous titles: 2007, 2009, 2014
The Mercury realistically haven't done a lot to deserve the benefit of the doubt so far this season, and we list them here ahead of Indiana even though the Fever swept Phoenix 3-0. What gives? This could be Diana Taurasi's last season, which might be a motivating factor for her and the team.
There's also past WNBA championship experience with players such as Taurasi, center Brittney Griner, guard/forward Kahleah Copper (with Chicago) and guard Natasha Cloud (with Washington). The team recently added forward Monique Billings on a seven-day contract; if she stays on the roster she will fill a need inside. Lastly, there's a feeling that the Mercury haven't played their best, so maybe it's still coming.
6. Seattle Storm (18-10)
Current place in standings: 5
Previous titles: 2004, 2010, 2018, 2020
The Storm added veterans such as forward Nneka Ogwumike and guard Skylar Diggins-Smith in the offseason. They also just brought aboard forward Gabby Williams. She played for the Storm the past two seasons and now rejoins the WNBA after spending time preparing with the French national team that won Olympic silver. Center Ezi Magbegor, who won bronze with Australia in the Olympics, has become an elite rim protector. And of course, the Storm have star guard Jewell Loyd, part of the United States' gold medal team.
Can Seattle put the pieces together well enough to get a title in the post-Sue Bird era? The Storm are middle of the pack in offensive rating, so they would need to improve there. Williams can make a pretty good defense even better.
7. Indiana Fever (13-15)
Current place in standings: 7
Previous titles: 2012
Everyone is aware by now of one of the most oft-repeated facts this season: The Fever haven't made the playoffs since 2016. That's their stated goal for 2024. It seemed ambitious during a rough first month. But look what has happened after that: Since June 13, the Fever are 10-5. The run includes three victories over Phoenix, plus wins over New York, Minnesota and Seattle. Indiana's record in that stretch is better than the Mercury's (9-7) and the Storm's (9-6).
But we keep the Fever seventh on this list for now because it's an enormous jump to go from a seven-season playoff drought to a title, led by stars who are only in their first (Caitlin Clark) and second (Aliyah Boston) WNBA seasons. But there's starting to be real playoff fever for the Fever, and that's the first step.
8. Chicago Sky (11-16)
Current place in standings: 8
Previous titles: 2021
After the first week back from the Olympics, the Sky are likely looking more at the team just below them in the standings -- the Atlanta Dream -- than contemplating the idea of winning a title. The Dream might make a playoff surge, trying to overcome either Chicago or Indiana. The idea of the Sky going on a run anything like 2021 is far-fetched, as that was a much more experienced team.
Still, rookie post players Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso each have an NCAA title on their résumés, and the Sky look their best when those two are having good games at the same time. Reese is already one of the WNBA's top rebounders. Guard Chennedy Carter has led the Sky in scoring in her return to the WNBA. But Chicago as a team is in the bottom three in the league in scoring, which makes it challenging to think the Sky could win three consecutive playoff series to take the championship.