With the Dallas Wings having won Sunday's WNBA draft lottery, the focus of the 12 existing teams now shifts toward a very different type of draft: the Golden State Valkyries expansion draft, the first in the WNBA since 2008.
Ahead of the Dec. 6 announcement of the draft results on ESPN, each current team has until Monday to submit a list of up to six protected players, including both those who finished the season on their roster and all others to whom the team holds rights.
The inclusion of player rights, most notably for draft picks who have yet to come to the WNBA and are "stashed" overseas, could produce interesting decisions on who teams will protect. Conversely, teams don't have to protect unrestricted free agents who have already played the maximum two years on contracts signed with the core designation, taking some of the league's biggest names off the table.
Golden State can choose one player from each team and only one total unrestricted free agent, who then becomes eligible to be designated a core player by the Valkyries. With those rules in mind, let's make a guess at which players each team will protect and who might be available for Golden State's inaugural roster.
Roster designations
DP: unsigned draft pick
R: restricted free agent
RS: reserved free agent
S: suspended list and contract expired
U: unrestricted free agent
Atlanta Dream
Projected protected:
Isabel Borlase (DP)
Jordin Canada
Allisha Gray
Naz Hillmon
Rhyne Howard
Nyadiew Puoch (DP)
Projected unprotected:
Laeticia Amihere
Maya Caldwell (RS)
Maite Cazorla (S)
Lorela Cubaj (RS)
AD Durr (R)
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (U)
Aerial Powers (U)
Iliana Rupert (S)
Matilde Villa (DP)
Ineligible: Tina Charles
None of the Dream's three 2024 draft picks joined the team, maintaining their rights but making them subject to the expansion draft. As a first-round pick, I'd give the 20-year-old Puoch the best chance of being protected alongside Atlanta's four eligible starters. I've given the last spot to Borlase -- another 20-year-old Australian drafted No. 20 -- over former first-round pick Rupert, for whom Atlanta has exclusive negotiating rights after she opted to sit out the 2024 season to play for France in the Olympics.
Chicago Sky
Projected protected:
Kamilla Cardoso
Chennedy Carter (R)
Dana Evans (R)
Michaela Onyenwere (R)
Angel Reese
Elizabeth Williams
Projected unprotected:
Lindsay Allen
Rachel Banham
Maria Conde (DP)
Isabelle Harrison (U)
Moriah Jefferson
Nikolina Milic (RS)
Diamond DeShields (U)
Brianna Turner (U)
Protecting core players won't be a challenge for the Sky. In fact, Chicago has room to protect three restricted free agents in addition to promising young players Cardoso and Reese, and veteran Williams. After averaging a team-high 17.5 points last season, Carter is another easy choice, and Onyenwere has emerged as a starter.
Evans, another restricted free agent, fell out of favor under Teresa Weatherspoon but could have a new start with Tyler Marsh replacing Weatherspoon as coach. Meanwhile, the Valkyries drafting any of the Sky's veterans would add to their stockpile of cap space.
Connecticut Sun
Projected protected:
Veronica Burton (RS)
DiJonai Carrington (R)
Tyasha Harris
Leila Lacan (DP)
Marina Mabrey
Alyssa Thomas (U)
Projected unprotected:
Caitlin Bickle (RS)
Abbey Hsu (DP)
Tiffany Mitchell (U)
Astou Ndour-Fall (U)
Olivia Nelson-Ododa
Ineligible: DeWanna Bonner
As compared to the other teams that reached the WNBA semifinals, Connecticut won't have as difficult of decisions to make about its protected list because both Bonner and Brionna Jones have exhausted their core years and are ineligible for the expansion draft. The Sun can protect all five other players who had at least 70 minutes of action in the playoffs as well as their 2024 first-round pick, French national team member Lacan.
The one question is whether Connecticut might choose reserve post Nelson-Ododa over Burton, but Burton's exclusive negotiating rights as a reserved player are valuable.
Dallas Wings
Projected protected list:
Carla Leite (DP)
Teaira McCowan
Arike Ogunbowale
Satou Sabally (U)
Jacy Sheldon
Maddy Siegrist
Projected unprotected list:
Bella Alarie (S)
Jaelyn Brown (RS)
Kalani Brown
Awak Kuier (S)
Paige Robinson (DP)
Lou Lopez Senechal
Stephanie Soares
Sevgi Uzun (RS)
Ineligible: Natasha Howard
Despite not having to protect Howard, the Wings will have to leave multiple recent first-round picks unprotected. Dallas will probably start by protecting the team's top five eligible players last season in minutes per game, including key reserve Siegrist. That leaves one spot between backup center Kalani Brown, part-time starting point guard Uzun, 2023 first-round picks Lopez Senechal and Soares, and last year's No. 9 pick, guard Leite from France. Of that group, I think the Wings are most likely to protect Leite -- particularly after winning the draft lottery and potentially landing UConn point guard Paige Bueckers to replace Uzun.
Indiana Fever
Projected protected list:
Aliyah Boston
Caitlin Clark
Temi Fagbenle (R)
Lexie Hull
Kelsey Mitchell (U)
NaLyssa Smith
Projected unprotected list:
Grace Berger
Damiris Dantas
Victaria Saxton
Katie Lou Samuelson
Kristy Wallace
Erica Wheeler (U)
The decision for the Fever all comes down to the last spot alongside their five primary starters. You could make a case for Wallace, entering the final season of her rookie contract, or veteran Dantas with a modest protected salary of $100,000. (All salary data via HerHoopStats.com.) I'd go with Fagbenle, who will be a restricted free agent after starting a game during the playoffs and surpassing Dantas in the rotation.
Las Vegas Aces
Projected protected list:
Chelsea Gray
Kate Martin
Kelsey Plum (U)
Kiah Stokes
A'ja Wilson
Jackie Young
Projected unprotected list:
Kierstan Bell
Alysha Clark (U)
Sydney Colson (U)
Queen Egbo (RS)
Megan Gustafson
Tiffany Hayes (U)
Elizabeth Kitley (DP)
The Aces will quickly protect their four core players, including Plum, a likely candidate for the core designation as an unrestricted free agent. Rookie Martin has a bargain minimum salary and would be tempting for the Valkyries, so I'd protect her next, leaving Las Vegas one spot. The Aces could protect Hayes on the off chance Golden State chooses her for the core designation, but I think Bell's rookie contract or Stokes (making $103,000, unprotected) would be more valuable to the Valkyries. I lean toward Stokes, Las Vegas' fifth starter, but could see this one going either way.
Los Angeles Sparks
Projected protected list:
Julie Allemand
Cameron Brink
Rae Burrell
Dearica Hamby
Rickea Jackson
Azura Stevens
Projected unprotected list:
Lexie Brown
Zia Cooke
Kia Nurse (U)
Li Yueru (RS)
Shaniece Swain (DP)
Stephanie Talbot
Maria Vadeeva (S)
The Sparks signing so many veteran extensions in-season -- for Hamby, Stevens and Talbot -- made their expansion draft decisions trickier. Talbot in particular would not have been at risk to be selected as an unrestricted free agent but is now on a modest $125,000 salary, while Hamby and Stevens will need to be protected. Add in core pieces Brink and Jackson and that leaves only two spots. I'd protect Burrell, a starter by season's end, and give the last spot to Allemand in the hopes she can return after sitting out last season because of injury. But that means exposing restricted free agent Aari McDonald, reserved free agent Yueru and 2023 second-round pick Swain in addition to Talbot and Brown.
One note: Because Odyssey Sims finished the season on a hardship contract with Los Angeles, she is not eligible for the expansion draft, which also applies to teammate Crystal Dangerfield and Ezinne Kalu of the Atlanta Dream.
Minnesota Lynx
Projected protected list:
Bridget Carleton
Napheesa Collier
Kayla McBride
Diamond Miller
Alanna Smith
Courtney Williams
Projected unprotected list:
Olivia Epoupa (RS)
Natisha Hiedeman (U)
Myisha Hines-Allen (U)
Maia Hirsch (DP)
Dorka Juhasz
Alissa Pili
Jessica Shepard (S)
Cecilia Zandalasini (RS)
The Lynx can protect the starting five that got within a bucket of the WNBA championship plus one additional player. From a value standpoint, Miller seems like an obvious choice as the No. 2 pick of the 2023 draft despite falling out of coach Cheryl Reeve's rotation after returning from arthroscopic knee surgery. But protecting her would leave exposed 2023 second-round pick Juhasz, who played key minutes in the WNBA Finals, plus 2024 first-rounder Pili.
There's also Shepard, who averaged 8.1 points and 7.1 rebounds in 2023 before sitting out last season because of the WNBA's prioritization rules. Teams are allowed to make trades with Golden State to pick a particular player, and Minnesota is a strong candidate for a deal.
New York Liberty
Projected protected list:
Leonie Fiebich
Sabrina Ionescu
Jonquel Jones
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
Nyara Sabally
Breanna Stewart (U)
Projected unprotected list:
Raquel Carrera (DP)
Kaitlyn Davis (DP)
Marquesha Davis
Ivana Dojkic (RS)
Marine Fauthoux (DP)
Rebekah Gardner (RS)
Han Xu (S)
Marine Johannes (RS)
Jaylyn Sherrod (RS)
Kayla Thornton
Courtney Vandersloot (U)
If you were going to bet on any team striking a deal with the Valkyries, the Liberty are the best choice. Not only does New York have to protect the core of the defending champs, the team's front office has worked hard to accumulate rights to a variety of potential contributors.
After protecting the team's five playoff starters, the Liberty have only one spot left for either Johannes -- a reserved free agent after sitting out the 2024 season to focus on playing for the French national team in the Olympics -- or key reserve Sabally. There's no room on the list for Thornton, who played 21 minutes in the deciding Game 5 of the Finals. New York also dealt for the rights to Gardner, who sat out last season because of an Achilles tear sustained overseas, with an eye toward adding her to the mix.
The Liberty can tempt Golden State with a stockpile of draft picks. New York would surely prefer to hang on to the No. 7 pick in next year's draft, acquired via swap with the Phoenix Mercury, but could offer its own first-rounder in 2026.
Phoenix Mercury
Projected protected list:
Rebecca Allen
Natasha Cloud
Kahleah Copper
Sophie Cunningham
Natasha Mack (RS)
Diana Taurasi (U)
Projected unprotected list:
Amy Atwell (RS)
Monique Billings (U)
Mikiah Herbert Harrigan (RS)
Klara Lundquist (S)
Charisma Osborne (RS)
Celeste Taylor (RS)
Ineligible: Brittney Griner
Because Griner has reached her maximum number of core years and is ineligible, Phoenix's decision should be pretty easy. The Mercury can protect all six other players who had more than 350 minutes of action last season. The one wild card is if Taurasi has already informed Phoenix she intends to retire, in which case the Mercury could potentially leave her unprotected and add Taylor -- who averaged 20.1 minutes with the team -- to maintain her reserved rights.
Seattle Storm
Projected protected list:
Skylar Diggins-Smith
Jordan Horston
Jewell Loyd
Ezi Magbegor
Nika Muhl
Gabby Williams (U)
Projected unprotected list:
Joyner Holmes (U)
Mackenzie Holmes (DP)
Mercedes Russell (U)
Victoria Vivians (U)
Sami Whitcomb (U)
Ineligible: Nneka Ogwumike
As the Storm have only five players under contract for 2025 and all of their other returning players are unrestricted free agents -- including Ogwumike, who is ineligible for the expansion draft -- they're in no danger of losing a key contributor to the expansion draft. Seattle can protect Williams, who might be a core target for the Valkyries, and choose between using the last spot on either second-round pick Muhl (who recently underwent surgery to repair ACL and meniscus tears) or third-round pick Holmes, who sat out the season to undergo knee surgery.
Washington Mystics
Projected protected list:
Ariel Atkins
Shakira Austin
Aaliyah Edwards
Emily Engstler (RS)
Karlie Samuelson
Brittney Sykes
Projected unprotected list:
Txell Alarcon (DP)
Nastja Claessens (DP)
Elena Delle Donne (U)
Stefanie Dolson
Bernadett Hatar (RS)
Sika Kone
Li Meng (RS)
Jade Melbourne
Sug Sutton (RS)
Julie Vanloo (RS)
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (U)
For a team that missed the playoffs, the Mystics have a number of interesting players worth protecting. Starters Atkins, Austin and Sykes are obvious choices, as is last year's first-round pick, Edwards. Washington will also have to consider protecting Delle Donne after she sat out last season, if only to maintain her trade value.
Still, I'm giving a spot to Engstler, who was highly productive off the bench (15.3 points, 9.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists per 36 minutes) and is a reserved free agent. For the last spot, I'll go with Samuelson, who shot 40% on 3s and has a highly tradeable contract, over veteran center Dolson. But I could also see the Mystics protecting 22-year-old Kone, who showed promise after a midseason trade.