In a season full of unpredictability, there's been one constant: the utter dominance of the South Carolina Gamecocks.
After losing five players to the WNBA from last season's team, which was undefeated before being upset by Iowa in the Final Four, national expectations were mixed regarding what South Carolina would look like in 2023-24. In the preseason Associated Press poll, they came in at No. 6, behind LSU, UConn, Iowa, UCLA and Utah.
But the program dispelled any notion this would be a "rebuilding" year for Dawn Staley & Co., beginning with the season opener, where the Gamecocks thrashed Notre Dame 100-71 in Paris. They haven't skipped a beat since, holding steady at the No. 1 spot in the polls since the second week of the season and completing their second consecutive undefeated regular season. Just two of their SEC games have been decided by single digits, the rest mostly by 20 or 30. Even Staley has said her team's resounding success has surprised her in some ways.
With three more wins in the SEC tournament and six in the Big Dance, the Gamecocks would become the fifth Division I program (and 10th team overall) to achieve an undefeated season. But even more important in Columbia is the chance to bring home another championship -- the program's third in the past seven tournaments -- especially after last year's devastating defeat in the national semis.
Charlie Creme, Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel assess what has made South Carolina so good this season and its path ahead toward history.
South Carolina was the favorite a year ago, too. What went wrong for the Gamecocks in the Final Four?
Philippou: Caitlin Clark was the best player on the floor in that NCAA tournament, and her 41 points -- combined with an off night for the Gamecocks, for whatever reason -- were enough to spell an upset. Obviously, LSU got the best of Clark the game after, but if South Carolina had managed to win that game, it seems most likely they would have come away with the trophy given how their regular-season meeting against the Tigers was, well, not all that competitive.
Voepel: It's likely no team except Iowa could have defeated South Carolina last year. The advantage the Gamecocks' starting five had of being so experienced they could read each other's minds was matched by Iowa's starters. The Hawkeyes could stretch South Carolina's defense with their 3-point shooting more than any other Gamecock foe. Iowa had the hottest player in March Madness with Clark. If they could do it over, the Gamecocks may have fed the ball to Kamilla Cardoso even more than they did, as she was 7-of-9 from the field and Iowa really couldn't stop her. That said, the Hawkeyes went all-in on clogging the paint and betting the Gamecocks wouldn't be able to make them pay enough from the perimeter. That strategy worked.
Creme: Whenever there is a dominant team or athlete in any sport, there is always the caveat that if they have one bad night and the other team executes well a loss is possible. It happened to the unbeaten Patriots against the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. Serena Williams, in pursuit of the Grand Slam in 2015, lost in the U.S. Open semifinals to Roberta Vinci, the 43rd-ranked player in the world. South Carolina had its one bad night March 31, 2023, in Dallas, and Iowa and Clark's 41 points were there to capitalize.
All season, the one weak spot in an otherwise impenetrable suit of armor was the Gamecocks' perimeter shooting. They made just 4-of-20 from 3-point range that night as the Hawkeyes kept daring them to shoot jump shots. That Aliyah Boston and Brea Beal each had one of the worst games of their careers on the same night also didn't help.
How did the Gamecocks attempt to solve those trouble spots that were exposed in the national semifinals?
Creme: The easy answer is that Staley brought in transfer Te-Hina Paopao from Oregon. Paopao is a better, more consistent shooter than Zia Cooke and a more accomplished passer. That helped the offense in two areas. This team moves the ball better, creating more open looks, and now there is a player to knock them down as the most accurate 3-point shooter in the country (48.6%). That Paopao was left off the All-SEC first team is inexplicable. She's one of the best players in the country, let alone the conference.
Raven Johnson is a better, more confident player, too. She's more certain of where the ball should go, and when. She has one of the best point guards of all time as her head coach, and the work Staley has done with Johnson is apparent.
Philippou: It's been a perfect storm of finding the right players in the transfer portal, bringing in talented freshmen who fill needs, and developing players within the program who previously had smaller roles. There's no debate in my mind that Staley is the clear choice for national coach of the year.
Voepel: Staley spent last season preparing the reserves for the bigger roles she knew they would fill this season. Cardoso, Chloe Kitts and Bree Hall didn't start at all last season, while Johnson started just three games. But Staley worked with them in practice and said: "Watch and learn, because it's your team next year."
So it's not as if everything blew up in Dallas and had to be reconstructed. It was a painful loss, for sure, and it couldn't have been easy for Staley to let that go and move on without Boston & Co. But she had already planted the seeds for success for 2023-24, and adding Paopao just made the crop more bountiful.
Are the Gamecocks really better this year than last, when all five starters, including WNBA rookie of the year Aliyah Boston, were drafted?
Voepel: We wouldn't be asking this if the Gamecocks had survived Iowa last season, because they probably would have won their second consecutive national championship. LSU, understandably, will quarrel with that. But considering how well the Gamecocks played the Tigers when they met during the 2023 regular season, South Carolina seems unlikely to have stumbled in the final. Then the question now would be: Can this team be as good as last year? But that's not what happened, so here we are.
It continues to nag at me: How can a team be better without Aliyah Boston than with her? That doesn't compute. So it's still hard to say, "Yeah, the Gamecocks are better." However, stats and results don't lie. And if they finish the job, they prove it.
Creme: It seems unfathomable, but yes. This team is better. It may not be as physically dominant, although that is still a factor in South Carolina's success, but this team has corrected the one major flaw -- shooting -- last season's team always had but was able to cover for until the Final Four. The defensive prowess still exists. The Gamecocks' field goal percentage defense is best in the country. They average more defensive rebounds and blocked shots per game than anyone else.
Offensively, South Carolina is more versatile with the addition of the MiLaysia Fulwiley and the big leap forward by Ashlyn Watkins, who has essentially doubled her production across the board.
This team still has moments where doubt about its invincibility creeps in, like Sunday against Tennessee, when the Gamecocks just stopped rebounding for a stretch and let the Lady Vols back into the game. Or the first half against Georgia, when they let a clearly inferior team hang around. But those moments have proved to be fleeting. We still will have to see how this younger team reacts in big moments like a potential SEC tournament final or a Sweet 16 game when it is down at the half, but it remains difficult to find the weakness on this South Carolina team.
Philippou: Charlie and Michael spoke to the eye test, but the stats also back it up. Their offensive rating is up (from 114.0 points per 100 possessions last season to 115.7 now), while their defensive rating has also improved (74.3 points allowed per 100 possessions last season to 73.3 points now). The most obvious areas of growth are offensively, where their pace is quicker (74.9 possessions per 40 minutes now vs. 69.6 last season) and their assist-to-turnover ratio is higher (1.46 vs. 1.31). The Gamecocks' improvement on 3s (40.1% now, 31.0% last season) is eye-popping, and as further evidence of how much their offense is rolling, even their 2-point field goal percentage is better (53.4% vs. 50.4%). As Charlie mentioned, their offensive versatility with players who can shoot, score inside or get downhill makes it an overwhelming unit to face as an opponent.
Which player is the biggest X factor when it comes to South Carolina winning the 2024 title?
Creme: Kitts has been a revelation. She was a nonfactor a season ago. Now, she's a full-time starter who is ready to produce from the outset of any game. On numerous occasions Kitts has been the one setting the tone with silky moves to the rim or the consistency of her foul line jump shot. She's become a key presence in the middle of the offense as a willing passer, and now is a threat to score. She averages 9.4 points per game after scoring 1.8 a year ago. Kitts is a big reason why so many of those veterans from a season ago aren't missed as much as we thought they would be.
Voepel: Another key factor could be Hall, who is second on the team in 3-pointers (44) to Paopao and is shooting 41.5% from behind the arc. If defenses overcommit to try to stop Paopao, Hall can also make them pay.
Philippou: Aside from the aforementioned two, Fulwiley could also be in store for a big March. She has had some of the normal freshman ups and downs, but when she's on, there's really no player on the court as dynamic as she is.
After dropping 21 points and 11 rebounds, Ashlyn Watkins highlights No. 1 South Carolina's discipline, cohesive teamwork and commitment in its win over Arkansas.
The Gamecocks will win the championship in April if ...
Philippou: They continue to do what they've done all season and respond upon encountering adversity in a given game. Seeing South Carolina go on a late run in a hostile Baton Rouge environment to pull ahead of the Tigers and come through with a win in their lone meeting Jan. 25 was telling. This team may be young and relatively inexperienced, but as long as they stay poised and confident -- especially with a veteran leader like Paopao leading the charge -- they are well situated to go all the way. Remember, Staley's teams haven't lost when trailing by double digits for three seasons now.
Voepel: They control rebounding and turnovers. That was the case in both of their regular-season victories against Tennessee, which played South Carolina better than most other teams did. The Gamecocks still won those games by 11 and 8 points, even though they didn't shoot very well in either. South Carolina prevailed on the boards and had fewer giveaways. It sounds simple, but keeping their advantage in those areas means the Gamecocks aren't going to do anything to beat themselves.
Creme: They approach all their NCAA tournament games like they have approached every game this season. To this point, the Gamecocks have let their outstanding preparation from Staley, talent and versatility work for them. If that remains the approach, this team now has too many different ways to win: put the opposing offense in a vice grip; rebound and run, because no other team controls the boards and is as athletic as South Carolina; or run controlled and patient offense, looking to open up a driving lane or spring loose shooters who can now make those shots.
South Carolina will lose the championship in April if ...
Voepel: It runs into a team that shoots close to 50% or better from the field and prevents the Gamecocks from dictating the pace. That's basically what happened against Iowa last year. South Carolina outrebounded the Hawkeyes by 24! The Gamecocks took 20 more shots from the field. But Iowa shot 49.1% from the field, and that was enough for a four-point win.
Philippou: It goes cold shooting-wise (like the Gamecocks did Sunday against Tennessee, where they "only" won by eight) and has uncharacteristic issues with turnovers, while the opposing team hits just enough shots to pull off the upset.
Creme: The moment gets too big. The only way I see this team falling short is if the inexperience of playing in a one-and-done circumstance tightens up some of the younger players and the execution of the game plan suffers. As talented as the likes of Fulwiley, Watkins and Kitts are, none have had the same responsibility in big moments that they will have late in this NCAA tournament.