South Carolina has officially logged a second straight undefeated season heading into March Madness, thanks to an incredible Kamilla Cardoso buzzer-beater and a solid showing against LSU in the SEC final. ESPN's Women's College Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives the Gamecocks a 39% chance to win the NCAA tournament.
The Gamecocks started off as the highest-ranked preseason team, just ahead of UConn and LSU, according to BPI. They haven't moved from that spot, and the gap between them and the rest of women's college basketball has only grown. Through Monday's games, South Carolina had a BPI of 50.2, with No. 2 UConn the only other team over 45.
However, 39% still means if given the choice between South Carolina and the field, BPI would take the field. We've seen this play out before, with South Carolina unbeaten last season before losing to Iowa in the Final Four. Which teams have a chance to do the same in this year's Big Dance? ESPN simulated the tournament 1,000 times using BPI and Charlie Creme's women's Bracketology. The Gamecocks won 391 times. Let's examine the other results.
UConn Huskies
Number of simulations won: 138 (13.8%)
BPI chance to win head-to-head vs. South Carolina: 38.4%
UConn's season hasn't been what we expected, as injuries plagued the team and prevented it from finishing 2023-24 with its strongest group. Due to Aaliyah Edwards' nose injury, UConn entered Monday's Big East championship game with just seven available players. Still, the Huskies have the second-best net efficiency in the country. They went 0-5 against teams in the top 12 of BPI but destroyed every other team they played.
To add some perspective, UConn's win probability never dipped below 90% in the fourth quarter in any of its 29 victories this season. Every one of those games was essentially wrapped before the final 10 minutes. On the flip side, in the fourth quarters of the Huskies' five losses, they never led, with their highest win probability being 55% with 9 minutes left against Notre Dame.
The Huskies haven't played even one possession against any team in a "clutch" situation (within five points in the last five minutes). UConn can play like the No. 2 team in the country, but can the Huskies do it against another top-five team when the game is close? We haven't seen it happen yet.
Texas Longhorns
Number of simulations won: 122 (12.2%)
BPI chance to win head-to-head vs. South Carolina: 32.5%
Texas-UConn is the most common NCAA title game matchup that doesn't include South Carolina -- followed closely by Texas vs. Stanford. Texas' best shot to win the NCAA championship comes if South Carolina doesn't reach the Final Four, but the Longhorns still have about a 1-in-3 chance to win in a head-to-head.
Texas has had an impressive season and could add a Big 12 title on Tuesday, a game BPI gives the Longhorns an 86% chance to win. Their most impressive win came early in the season against UConn, and BPI's favorable view of the Huskies boosts Texas' rating as well. Freshman Madison Booker has proved to be a true star -- she split the Big 12 Player of the Year award with Oklahoma's Skylar Vann -- and her play puts Texas in contention to take down anybody in the NCAA tournament.
Stanford Cardinal
Number of simulations won: 95 (9.5%)
BPI chance to win head-to-head vs. South Carolina: 31.0%
More straightforward than our first two contenders, Stanford is locked into a No. 1 seed despite coming off a loss in the Pac-12 tournament championship game. The Cardinal have been a staple all season, landing No. 15 in the AP preseason poll and never dropping below No. 9. BPI has been even more bullish, ranking the Cardinal fifth headed into the season and keeping them at No. 5 or better all season.
On a neutral court, BPI views Stanford as the third-biggest threat to South Carolina. The Cardinal's chances to win the title would be higher if they didn't share their region with two other teams on this list.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Number of simulations won: 47 (4.7%)
BPI chance to win head-to-head vs. South Carolina: 26.8%
If anything, BPI is lower on Iowa than consensus. The team that was able to end then-undefeated South Carolina's season last year is currently projected to avoid a rematch until the title game, this time around by grabbing the No. 2 overall seed.
Unexpected losses to Kansas State and Nebraska during the regular season kept Iowa from looking stronger in BPI's view, but there's no question this team can win it all. The simulations still show Iowa is a strong contender, but a projected Elite Eight matchup won't be a cakewalk. It's arguably the most difficult region, with UCLA and UConn as the Nos. 2 and No. 3 seeds.
LSU Tigers
Number of simulations won: 43 (4.3%)
BPI chance to win head-to-head vs. South Carolina: 26.2%
LSU came into the season fresh off an NCAA title with star Angel Reese returning and an impressive group joining the team from the transfer portal. The Tigers looked poised to be a dominant team but then had a rocky start to the season. They dropped their opener to Colorado, Reese missed four games for undisclosed reasons and they just squeaked past Virginia without her. The low point, according to BPI, came after a loss to Auburn in mid-January.
But LSU has been on the rise since and enters the NCAA tournament 10-1 in its past 11 games, the lone loss coming to South Carolina in the SEC championship game. LSU has shown it can beat anyone when its players are firing on all cylinders. Currently sitting on the No. 2 line in Bracketology, LSU has a better seed than it did for its championship run last season. No women's team has ever won back-to-back titles without earning a 1-seed; LSU has a chance to be the first.
UCLA Bruins
Number of simulations won: 37 (3.7%)
BPI chance to win head-to-head vs. South Carolina: 25.0%
UCLA is further down on this list than it would've been even just a week ago. After starting the season 14-0 with impressive wins over UConn and Ohio State, UCLA had moved to fifth in BPI. Then it finished 11-6 as it played through the Pac-12 gauntlet and has dropped to No. 8.
UCLA still had hold of a No. 1 seed going into the Pac-12 tournament. But a loss to USC in the Pac-12 semifinals, plus a strong showing from Iowa in the Big Ten tournament, dropped the Bruins to a 2-seed in Bracketology. Despite their slide, the Bruins are still projected to avoid rival Stanford until the Final Four and have to feel better than most about sharing the region with No. 3 seed UConn, which UCLA walloped 78-67 during nonconference play.
Notre Dame's Sonia Citron comes down with a clutch rebound late in the fourth quarter to ice the game against NC State.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Number of simulations won: 35 (3.5%)
BPI chance to win head-to-head vs. South Carolina: 24.8%
Notre Dame sneaks in as our final contender that wins the tournament in more than 3% of the simulations or has a better than 20% chance to beat South Carolina. Notre Dame came into the season as the No. 4 team in BPI and, despite a 100-71 drubbing at the hands of South Carolina in the season opener, strung together an impressive first month of the season. The Fighting Irish's BPI peaked after beating Tennessee in a close game in late November but hit its bottom following their unimpressive loss at home to NC State in mid-February.
Since then, Notre Dame has gone on an eight-game winning streak, winning five games against AP Top 25 opponents, including avenging that loss to NC State by winning the ACC tournament title game. Notre Dame is a 3-seed in Bracketology but will still face a difficult road in the NCAA tournament, needing to knock off LSU and Stanford just to reach the Final Four.