Minor premier Sydney host Port Adelaide at the SCG on Friday night, with the winner to advance to the 2024 AFL Grand Final.
There's all sorts of storylines and narratives circulating ahead of what shapes to be a memorable clash. Here are the three questions that will decide the outcome of this game:
Jekyll or Hyde? Which Port Adelaide side shows up at the SCG?
We've seen the very best and the very worst of the Power this finals series. An 84-point home loss to Geelong had the footy world writing off their premiership chances, only for them to reverse their fortunes with a nail biting three-point win over a red-hot Hawthorn side last Friday night at Adelaide Oval.
Six weeks ago, this Port side held an extraordinary 71-0 lead over the Swans en route to a 112-point win. Now, few are giving them a realistic shot at beating the same team, highlighting the unpredictability of Ken Hinkley's side.
In that qualifying loss to the Cats, Port was smashed both at the contest and on the outside. They appeared lazy and disinterested, a performance that was arguably the club's most disappointing since their 2007 Grand Final capitulation. Hinkley's side finished -79 in disposals, -74 in uncontested possession, -27 in marks, -15 in marks inside 50, and -20 in shots at goal.
But eight nights later, after copping criticism all week, the Power responded in style. From the opening bounce against the Hawks it was evident their pressure and work rate was back up at the level required in September. Port turned the tables in the contested game, winning the clearance, contested possession, and inside 50 game.
Port Adelaide can be very Jekyll and Hyde. We all know that, and have done for some time. Despite what happened the last time these two teams met, you get the impression Sydney can still win this game without playing to their absolute potential. The Power simply don't have that luxury. If Hinkley is to book his first ticket to the Grand Final, his side must play at, or very close to its ceiling.
Which star midfield trio gets the edge?
Sydney and Port Adelaide might have the two best midfield trios in the league. And given finals are won and lost in the middle of the ground, this mouthwatering battle looms as key to the outcome of this game.
For the Swans, Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden have been on an absolute tear this year. Each of them was awarded with an All-Australian blazer and each capable of ripping a game apart. ESPN's Brownlow Medal predictor has one of them best on ground in a ridiculous 15 of Sydney's 23 home and away games. You can make it 16 after Heeney's dominant display in the qualifying final win against GWS.
And then there's the Power, who have a pair of two-time All-Australians in skipper Connor Rozee and running mate Zak Butters, as well as Jason Horne-Francis, who might be playing the best footy of any Port player right now. This trio has an average age of just 23 years, but together they work as both the engine room and dynamic avenue to goal.
Both teams have a defensive-minded fourth option. For Port, it's Willem Drew. For the Swans, it's James Rowbottom. And with Ollie Wines and Luke Parker, both sides also have that experienced elder statesman.
When these two sides met six weeks ago in Round 21, it was Port's brigade who totally outclassed their Sydney counterparts. Rozee, Horne-Francis, Butters, Drew, and Wines all had 27+ disposals, the quintet combining for 62 contested possessions, 31 clearances, and 30 inside 50s.
Can Sydney's match winners finally play well against the Power?
The Swans haven't beaten the Power since 2017. It's a trend that sounds impossible, but it most assuredly is accurate. These two sides have met eight times in the last eight years and it's Port who has reigned supreme on each occasion, by an average margin of 34 points. At the risk of stating the obvious, this has to be a major concern for John Longmire and his assistants.
So what is it exactly that's allowed the Power to enjoy such an advantage in recent times?
In those eight games, Port has won the contested possession count in six, four of those by at least 10, three of them by 20. They've only lost the clearance count once and on four occasions they've won it by at least 10.
But the biggest concern from a Swans perspective is that a number of prime movers continually fall flat when they come up against Port Adelaide.
Dynamic small forward Tom Papley and gun wing Errol Gulden both average their fewest Rating Points against the Power. Papley also averages just 12.3 disposals (second lowest) and 1.1 goals (second lowest) in those games, while Gulden averages his fewest disposals when facing Port.
Running halfback Nick Blakey is another Swan who averages his fewest disposals (and uncontested possessions) in these matches, while Chad Warner averages just three score involvements per game against the Power, his lowest output against any team.