FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- The Atlanta Falcons got the most out of their roster in 2021 -- finishing with a 7-10 record and playing as one would have expected: Beating most of the opponents similar to them and largely being blown out by playoff teams.
The offense struggled. The defense couldn’t stop the run.
Like a season ago, when general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith took over, expect a lot of change heading into 2022.
“Even if you wanted to bring everybody back, that's not reality,” Smith said in December. “So, at certain spots, I think the staff familiarity, it helps too. Yes, in certain spots, but otherwise, you’re dealing with the realities.
“We're going to have a lot of new faces in next spring and next fall.”
That was always going to be true in Atlanta, which is still digging out of salary-cap constraints and after signing many players to one-year deals a year ago, has gaps either as starters or depth at every position on the roster.
Projected salary-cap space: $5,708,630 over the projected cap
Top free agents: LB Foye Oluokun, WR Russell Gage, RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, K Younghoe Koo (RFA), TE Hayden Hurst, S Erik Harris, S Duron Harmon
Potential cut candidates: RB Mike Davis, DL Tyeler Davison
Davis and Davison both underperformed last season. Davis was signed to be the No. 1 running back and averaged 3.6 yards a carry. Davison had 30 tackles and saw his role reduced as the season went on. Davis would save $2.5 million and Davison $3.8 million against the cap. Last week, the Falcons released OLB Dante Fowler Jr., who underperformed in 2021 (4.5 sacks) and whose contract for 2022 was over $25 million.
What you need to know: The Falcons once again need to figure out a bunch roster spots. Their receiver position is gutted because of free agency -- 2021 sixth-round pick Frank Darby (one reception) is the only player who finished the year on the 53-man roster who is not a free agent. The front seven, which had trouble putting pressure on the opposition, could undergo a significant overhaul due to free agency.
Wide receiver Calvin Ridley will be the first big question of an offseason full of them for Atlanta. Ridley, who missed 12 games because of personal issues, has one year left on his contract at a reasonable $11.116 million for a No. 1 receiver. But it’s not clear how the situation will unfold. Owner Arthur Blank said Atlanta would “absolutely” want to have Ridley back, and the Falcons have been supportive. Ridley has said nothing publicly since stepping away in a statement released during the fourth quarter of Atlanta’s loss to Carolina on Halloween -- a game for which he was inactive.
Best-case scenario for the Falcons' offseason: Ridley comes back and Grady Jarrett, who is in a contract year, wants to commit to Atlanta long-term, signing an extension offering the Falcons cap relief and a dominant player in the middle. Oluokun and Gage return on reasonable deals and Koo signs a long-term extension. The Falcons find four free agents like Patterson last season -- players at low cost who outperform every expectation. They find impact starters in the first three rounds of the draft along with beginning their succession plan for quarterback Matt Ryan.
Worst-case scenario for the Falcons' offseason: Atlanta ends up trying to trade Ridley and finds a lukewarm market. Jarrett doesn’t want to commit to Atlanta and the team has to consider trading him, creating a massive hole in the defense. Oluokun and Gage both find more money elsewhere. Koo gets tendered, another team offers a strong deal, and Koo leaves after Atlanta can't match, leaving another hole. Due to cap constraints, Atlanta can’t find an impact edge rusher or offensive line competition. Receivers don’t want to come to Atlanta because of cap concerns and Ryan is left without a proven pass-catcher other than tight end Kyle Pitts.
Early look at the NFL draft, from ESPN analyst Jordan Reid: The Falcons put up a league-low 18 sacks last season, which means generating pressure and improving the defensive line should be a point of emphasis. They need bigger personnel that better suit Dean Pees’ defense. The Falcons also could be in the market for help along the offensive line. Wide receiver is another question because of the uncertainty around Ridley. The organization has shown that it isn't opposed to taking the best prospect available.
Top needs: EDGE, OT, WR
Top pick: No. 8