OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- The Baltimore Ravens head into their bye on a three-game winning streak, sitting atop the AFC North with some much-needed time to get healthy.
But Baltimore's biggest reason for optimism heading into the second half of the season? Having the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule.
The Ravens face only one team with a winning record in their final eight games – the Cincinnati Bengals at 5-4. The combined record of Baltimore’s remaining opponents is 25-45 (.357), the worst in the league.
Can the Ravens win out?
“Well, we’re 6-3,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "So, it guarantees us six wins, I know that. I learned that last year. Let’s just worry about the next game.”
Last season, Baltimore had the AFC’s best mark at 8-3 in late November before losing its final six games, which is why Harbaugh reiterated that no one can take any game for granted. But the Ravens faced five eventual playoff teams in the second half of 2021 and played without quarterback Lamar Jackson for the last four weeks because of injury.
This season, Baltimore has Jackson and a stretch of seven straight games against teams with losing records, which is an enviable combination for the Ravens. Jackson is 22-3 (.880) against teams with losing records as the Ravens’ starting quarterback — the best active mark in the NFL since 2018 -- winning 10 of his past 11 vs. teams with records below .500.
Ravens defensive end Calais Campbell has seen the remaining schedule and knows the Bengals are the only team on there with a winning record.
“A young team might fall for the [upcoming opponents’] records,” Campbell said. “But I’ve seen teams go from 3-8 to 8-8 and make the playoffs.”
The Ravens enter the bye not having lost since Oct. 16. After this break, Baltimore plays six of its last eight games against teams with records of 3-5 or worse.
A look at the remaining schedule:
Week 11: vs. Carolina Panthers (3-7). ESPN's Football Power Index: Ravens by 13.6 points.
Week 12: at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6). FPI: Ravens by 3.1 points.
Week 13: vs. Denver Broncos (3-5). FPI: Ravens by 9.5 points.
Week 14: at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6). FPI: Ravens by 9.7 points.
Week 15: at Cleveland Browns (3-5). FPI: Ravens by 1.5 points.
Week 16: vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-6). FPI: Ravens by 9.8 points.
Week 17: vs. Steelers (2-6). FPI: Ravens by 10.9 points.
Week 18: at Bengals (5-4). FPI: Bengals by 0.6 points.
If Baltimore can go on a run, it could possibly sneak up on the Buffalo Bills (6-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) and take the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
“You just see those games and you think, ‘OK, if you play the way we play, there's a better chance of us winning versus it being very tough against teams with really good records,’” Ravens fullback Patrick Ricard said. "But it's the NFL, so records don’t really matter.”
Here are other reasons why the Ravens are positioned for a strong finish:
Dominant run game: When the Ravens were at their best in 2019 and 2020, they had an unstoppable ground attack. Baltimore is getting close to that level after gaining 188 yards in Monday night’s 27-13 win in New Orleans despite not having its top two running backs (J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards).
The Ravens have recorded at least 150 yards rushing in eight straight games, the longest single-season streak since the 1985 Chicago Bears did it nine straight times, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information. Baltimore has five players with over 100 yards rushing this season, which underscores the push made by this new-look offensive line.
“It’s really a group effort,” Harbaugh said. "You don’t just hand the ball off and the back goes and makes a bunch of yards. It all has to kind of work together. That’s what we’re getting better at. We still have to get a lot better, because we’re not where we want to be yet, but we are improving.”
Playmaking defense: It was a rough start for new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald when the Ravens led the NFL in most points in the fourth quarter in the first seven weeks of the season. But Baltimore has found its groove defensively with a now-healthy outside linebacker Justin Houston, a bounce-back year from cornerback Marlon Humphrey and the addition of middle linebacker Roquan Smith.
The Ravens rank in the top five in both takeaways (16) and sacks (27). On Monday night, Baltimore was four minutes from not allowing an offensive touchdown for the first time since the 2020 regular-season finale.
“It’s amazing just being around so many playmakers,” Smith told the NFL Network. “I don’t see no weaknesses at all.”
Improving health: The Ravens were able to win at Tampa Bay and New Orleans over the last two weeks and maintain a one-game lead in the AFC North despite not being close to full strength. Now, Baltimore heads into the softest part of its schedule with the prospects of getting a lot healthier.
Justin Houston recorded 5 pressures, 2.5 sacks and an INT in the Ravens' 27-13 victory over the Saints.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 8, 2022
Houston has generated 5+ pressures in all three games since returning from injury in Week 7, the longest active streak in the NFL.#BALvsNO | Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/VNYoE8PpG6
The Ravens should get stronger in the backfield with Edwards (hamstring) returning for next Sunday’s game against the Panthers and Dobbins (knee) expected to come back in a few weeks. Baltimore’s pass rush will get another boost with David Ojabo, a rookie second-round pick who had his first full practices since tearing his Achilles in March. The secondary will get back safety Marcus Williams (wrist), the team’s top free agent signing this offseason who will be back in December. The biggest addition will be the return of Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews (shoulder/knee), who missed a game because of injury for the first time in his five-year career.
“I think it’s a great time to go into the bye. We could use this rest,” said Houston, who ranks second in the NFL with 8.5 sacks. “A lot of guys are banged up and we are missing a couple of key guys. So, if we can get those guys back and we come back rested and focused, we will keep rolling.”