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Even with Tyrod Taylor, Bills should take swing at QB in draft

Beginning a position-by-position look at the Buffalo Bills roster with an eye toward free agency and the draft:

Position: Quarterback

2015 snaps:

Stat of note: Taylor had a 99.4 quarterback rating for the entire season, seventh-best in the NFL, and a 101.8 quarterback rating in the fourth quarter of games, eighth-best in the NFL. However, his fourth-quarter QB rating when the Bills were trailing by eight or fewer points was 38.3, the worst of 31 quarterbacks with at least 20 pass attempts in such one-possession situations. Taylor was 10-of-22 passing for 111 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and the Bills lost four of those five games. The best of those 31 quarterbacks was probable NFL MVP Cam Newton; he went 18-for-27 for 276 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 137.3 QB rating in such situations, winning two of three games.

Pending free agents: Johnson (unrestricted)

2015 cap hits (position rank):

  • Manuel: $2.827 million (30th in NFL)

  • Taylor: $2.13 million (33rd in NFL; includes $1 million base-salary escalator)

Money line: Taylor's salary, as a result of him playing at least 80 percent of snaps in 2015, will increase by $1 million assuming he reports to minicamp and training camp and isn't injured. Taylor also earned an additional $1 million incentive for playing in at least 80 percent of snaps in 2015; that counts against the Bills' 2016 salary-cap but isn't included in his cap number. Either way, the Bills are getting a bargain in Taylor for one more season as long as he maintains his average-to-above-average level of play from last season. Whether Taylor deserves an extension before his second season as the starter is another question and one that will be addressed more in the coming months. As for Manuel, the Bills are stuck with his cap number unless they trade him because his base salary is guaranteed. He'll be a free agent after next season unless the Bills pick up his fifth-year option before the May deadline, which would be shocking.

Market watch: Pending free agents include Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Osweiler, Drew Stanton, Matt Schaub, Jimmy Clausen, Cassel, Dan Orlovsky, Scott Tolzien, Brandon Weeden, T.J. Yates, Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, Chad Henne, Chase Daniel, Matt Moore, Luke McCown, Matt Flynn, Thad Lewis, Bruce Gradkowski, Mike Vick, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson and Colt McCoy.

Draft need: Medium-to-high -- the Bills look to be nearing the end of their marriage with Manuel and their eventual divorce will necessitate finding another quarterback to develop for the future, whether Taylor becomes the long-term starter or not. One way or another, it would be surprising if the Bills did not find a quarterback to groom as either their No. 2 or No. 3 option next season. Manuel is the only quarterback they've selected in the past five drafts; it's time to take another swing.

Crystal ball: The best bet is that the Bills hold on to Manuel for one more offseason, if not the entire season, unless they can somehow find a willing trade partner to take his salary off their hands. It's also likely that the Bills will draft a quarterback and find out in training camp if he has a chance to beat Manuel for the No. 2 job. Signing a veteran backup would take precious financial resources away from other areas of need.

Quote of note: "He’s warranted enough for us to continue down the road to see if he can be the franchise guy of the future. I mean if you think about it, if I told you a former sixth-round pick in his first year starting went 8-6, and with his stats and his quarterback rating and what he’s brought to the team, I think it warrants him a chance to prove it. Absolutely. And the thing that we like the most about him is the locker room believes in him, we believe in him, and hopefully the fans believe in him." -- general manager Doug Whaley on Taylor, Jan 4.