The first round of the 2016 NFL draft is upon us.
Although it's impossible to accurately predict everything that will unfold during the first night of the draft -- trades and unexpected decisions will surely shake up the picture -- it is possible to give a general sense of what to expect from the Buffalo Bills as they prepare to either make a pick at No. 19 overall or trade that selection.
With that in mind, here are three scenarios that would not surprise me and three outcomes that would surprise me:
IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME...
... if the Bills picked the best front seven player available at No. 19. It's common knowledge at this point, but the Bills need help along their defensive front seven. Even though the Bills rid themselves of a disgruntled, underperforming player in Mario Williams, they do not have an obvious replacement for him in their starting lineup. They also do not have a sure-fire replacement for Nigel Bradham at linebacker. In addition to those glaring holes, the team also could use depth across the defensive front -- at pass rusher, defensive tackle and linebacker. Luckily, this draft is considered strong at all three of those positions, especially defensive tackle. There could be six or more bigger-bodied defensive linemen (4-3 defensive tackles, 3-4 nose tackles or 3-4 defensive ends) who come off the board in the first round, with Louisville's Sheldon Rankins, Alabama's Jarran Reed, Louisiana Tech's Vernon Butler, Mississippi State's Chris Jones, Mississippi's Robert Nkemdiche and Alabama's A'Shawn Robinson considered the top of that class. Although a few of those players might be slight reaches at No. 19, the odds are that the Bills will have several options at that position when they pick Thursday night. They could also have a shot at the second wave of linebackers in the draft, Ohio State's Darron Lee and Alabama's Reggie Ragland, as well as the second wave of edge players, Clemson's Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd.
... if the Bills traded down from No. 19. General manager Doug Whaley said last week that he was "more intrigued" by the possibility of trading down, and it makes sense. Although the Bills could select one of the several top defensive front-seven players at No. 19, some should still remain on the board in the 20-31 range, or perhaps into the early part of the second round. If there isn't an obvious selection at No. 19 that has slipped down the board -- UCLA linebacker Myles Jack, Rankins, Reed, Lee or Lawson would fall into that category, based on most mock drafts -- then the Bills could slide down the board, pick up an extra pick and select a player such as Butler or Dodd later in the first round.
... if the Bills selected a quarterback by the end of Friday night. Whaley said last week that there is a "very, very good possibility" that the Bills will draft a quarterback, and the second and third rounds should be the sweet spot for that happening, especially if the Bills trade down from No. 19 and pick up an extra Day 2 selection. There isn't a clear choice at quarterback at No. 19 (more on that below), but the second round could offer better value for Memphis' Paxton Lynch, Penn State's Christian Hackenberg or Michigan State's Connor Cook, if the Bills' brain trust believes one of those players is the right fit for the franchise. Ohio State's Cardale Jones and Mississippi State's Dak Prescott are more likely third- or fourth-round options if they are available.
IT WOULD SURPRISE ME...
... if the Bills did not select a defensive lineman or linebacker at No. 19. The top of this draft appears to be tailor-made for the Bills' needs along their defensive front, so going in a different direction would be surprising. I could see the Bills considering one of the top offensive tackles -- notably Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley and Michigan State's Jack Conklin -- if they slipped down to No. 19, but it would come with an element of risk. If the Bills make a long-term financial commitment to left tackle Cordy Glenn, then their first-round selection would be relegated to right tackle for the foreseeable future. Likewise, I don't believe that one of the draft's top receivers -- Mississippi's Laquon Treadwell, TCU's Josh Doctson or Baylor's Corey Coleman -- offers tremendous value in a run-first offense where Sammy Watkins is expected to get the majority of pass targets. A selection at safety -- it would almost certainly be West Virginia's Karl Joseph -- is intriguing, but that isn't often considered an impact position.
... if the Bills traded up from No. 19. There just isn't a need. Even if the Bills were head-over-heels in love with a top front-seven player such as Georgia's Leonard Floyd or Oregon's DeForest Buckner, who are both expected to be selected with the first 12-15 picks, the team could still get good value in a second-tier front-seven player at No. 19. The cost would also be astronomical to pry Jared Goff or Carson Wentz away from the Los Angeles Rams or Philadelphia Eagles, who have already invested buckets of draft picks in those quarterbacks.
... if the Bills selected a quarterback at No. 19. There just doesn't seem to be good value at that spot for that position. Lynch is widely considered the third-best quarterback in the draft, but he's far from a sure thing. Hackenberg and Cook could be available in the second round, and both have flaws and limitations, so why make the investment at No. 19? The Bills do have a long-term need at quarterback, and it makes plenty of sense for them to select one in this draft, but Buffalo would be overextending itself to take a quarterback at No. 19 who is only worth a second- or third-round pick. The way this draft board has developed, there should be better players available at other positions.