The Buffalo Bills' firm stance on first-round pick Shaq Lawson not needing shoulder surgery turned into a flub Monday when they revealed that he will actually need surgery -- oops? -- but it's not the first time in recent history that the team has found itself in an embarrassing injury-related situation.

Soon after the Bills were eliminated from the playoffs late in the 2013 season, rookie quarterback EJ Manuel -- then Buffalo's starter -- injured his knee in a Week 15 win over the Jaguars. It was the third time that Manuel had injured either of his knees that season, and with the Bills in range to nab a top-10 pick in the 2014 draft, it seemed logical to rest the team's promising first-round pick.

Instead, then-coach Doug Marrone took a bizarre stance on the topic. He insisted that even though Manuel wouldn't play in the Bills' Week 16 game, he was "110 percent confident" that Manuel would play in a meaningless season-finale in New England. Marrone walked it back days later, admitting there was "a chance" Manuel would sit out the finale. Naturally, an explanation for his previous comment was in order.

“You guys have known, you’ve been around me," he said. "I’m one of those guys, I really don’t know a lot about when it comes down to the specifics of injuries. I’ve been that way since training camp. But I’m always pushing, trying to get them out there and trying to get them to play. And I’m optimistic, probably more than everybody that’s here right now when it comes down to that. And I need to be. I really do. I need to be that way.”

The first-year NFL coach didn't need to be so optimistic. He made it harder on himself when he summoned a local newspaper reporter -- who had called out Marrone on the issue -- to confront him in an airport hangar prior to the team's Saturday departure to New England for the Week 17 game, one that predictably Manuel sat out. The high-strung coach became so sensitive about discussing injuries that he deferred questions about the injury report to the team's public relations director for Marrone's second (and final) season in 2014.

Two and a half years after Marrone's memorable "110 percent confident" declaration about Manuel's knee, Bills general manager Doug Whaley has been similarly stung by excessive optimism on the issue of Lawson's health.

Minutes after selecting Lawson with the 19th overall pick in last month's draft, Whaley's second question at his news conference was about ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter's report that several NFL teams believed Lawson would need surgery on his right shoulder.

"[Our] medical staff cleared him, said he can play," Whaley responded. "Now, if something happens, it’s going to happen, but it’s nothing that we’re real worried about or we wouldn’t have taken him. We got complete faith in our medical staff and they signed off on him, so we’re excited to have him."

There are several problems with Whaley's statement, not all of which are his fault. First, if the Bills' doctors gave Whaley the green light on Lawson's shoulder, then that was a glaring issue with the medical staff's evaluation and Whaley was put in a bad spot by it. But even if that was true, Whaley put the organization in an awkward position by expressing "complete faith" in the medical staff and thus, in a sense, cleansing himself of responsibility if his own doctors' outlook on Lawson was wrong.

But from a broader view, even if Whaley and doctors were confident in Lawson's shoulder, why take the risk of expressing that publicly? The smarter play might have been to acknowledge the possibility of surgery -- which Whaley did in his initial comment before quickly downplaying it -- and frame the selection in the same way the Dallas Cowboys framed their pick of Jaylon Smith: that the team was getting good value in a talented player who slipped down the board because of legitimate medical concerns.

Credit the Bills for being upfront with their about-face on Lawson's surgery by releasing a statement about it before word spread. But if Whaley had tempered expectations from the start, fans wouldn't be so disappointed and confused by Monday's news. Likewise, if Marrone had been less certain than 110 percent that Manuel would play in the season finale in 2013, he wouldn't have been questioned when his quarterback didn't play.

It's a tightrope that coaches, GMs and teams walk when discussing injuries. The nature of most injuries make them inherently hard to predict, yet fans --- especially in the fantasy football realm -- want definitive answers, so reporters press for them. Players might not even be done limping off the field or being carted to the locker room before reporters are bombarded with questions about severity of injuries, diagnoses and possible time missed.

Even coaches and GMs don't know for sure. And players, as confident as they would like to be, don't know either.

Lawson learned that lesson quickly. He strongly refuted Schefter's report on a conference call after being selected, saying there was "no truth" to him needing surgery. Less than three weeks later, it was Lawson who was proved wrong.

Similarly, Bills receiver Sammy Watkins already has taken to Twitter in the wake of news Monday that he had surgery to repair a broken bone in his foot this offseason. An inquiring fan asked Watkins if he would return for the preseason, and Watkins responded, "of course."

Here's the problem: Schefter reported that Watkins is expected to miss training camp and the preseason. Given the third-year receiver's growing injury history, it would hardly be a shock if he were sidelined until September, for precautionary reasons or otherwise.

That could mean come August, if Watkins hasn't yet returned, his optimism about his injury could look as misguided as Marrone's, Whaley's or Lawson's -- and history could have once again repeated itself in Buffalo.