<
>

Suspension of Marcell Dareus could leave Bills in early-season hole

Back in mid-April, when the NFL released its regular-season schedule, I predicted the Buffalo Bills would finish with a 9-7 record -- a one-game improvement on their 8-8 mark last season.

Since then, most news hasn't been positive for the Bills. Their top two draft selections, Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland, both suffered injuries. Lawson will be out until at least October, while Ragland is expected to miss the entire season. Promising second-year running back Karlos Williams was suspended and later released, and top defensive lineman Marcell Dareus -- perhaps the Bills' best player -- was slapped with a four-game NFL-imposed drug suspension before he entered a rehabilitation facility.

More than four months later, my task is to boil those developments down to a revised prediction about the Bills' record in the upcoming season. Balancing those injuries and suspensions with the Bills' starters' encouraging play in their first two preseason games, I came up with a one-game change in their projected record. For the second consecutive season, I foresee an 8-8 finish.

Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 11 at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET

I had the Bills losing to the Ravens on opening day in my previous prediction, and I'll stick with that projection. This is one of the coin-flip games of the season; if it was played at New Era Field, I would give the edge to the Bills. Record: 0-1.

Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 15 vs. New York Jets, 8:25 p.m. ET

The Bills' first prime-time home game since 2012 is Rex vs. the Jets, Part III. Ryan has won both of his first two meetings with the Jets, and he's 8-1 against Ryan Fitzpatrick in his career. Advantage Bills. Record: 1-1.

Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 25 vs. Arizona Cardinals, 1 p.m. ET

If we're talking about the playoff-bound Bills in January, this is one of the games they'll need to put in the 'win' column. It's not going to be easy against one of the NFL's best teams from the past two years. The Cardinals are tied with the Patriots and Broncos with an NFL-best 24-8 record since 2014, and they could prove too much for the Bills to overcome without some of their key defensive players. Record: 1-2.

Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 2 at New England Patriots, 1 p.m. ET

I had the Bills winning this game in my previous projection, which would be only their second all-time win in Gillette Stadium since it opened in 2002. Yes, Jimmy Garoppolo will be quarterbacking the Patriots, but Buffalo will now be without Dareus, Lawson and Ragland. The Bills have a chance to make some noise in this game, but I'll believe it when I see it. Record: 1-3.

Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 9 at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m. ET

My last prediction had the Bills suffering a letdown loss in L.A. after back-to-back wins against Arizona and New England. The West Coast trip won't be easy, but "Hard Knocks" hasn't exactly given me hope about the Rams' chances this season. I'll flip the script and go with the Bills. Record: 2-3.

Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers, 1 p.m. ET

The 49ers have bottomed out into one of the NFL's worst teams. If the Bills drop this one at home, sound the alarms. Record: 3-3.

Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 23 at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET

The Bills are 5-1 against the Dolphins over the past three seasons. Unless Adam Gase has the magic touch with Ryan Tannehill, I don't see that changing. Record: 4-3.

Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 30 vs. Patriots, 1 p.m. ET

Tom Brady threw for 466 yards last time he played in New Era Field (well, it was Ralph Wilson Stadium at the time). As with the Bills' Week 4 tilt in New England, I'll believe it when I see it as far as Buffalo's ability to topple the AFC East's best. Record: 4-4.

Week 9: Monday, Nov. 7 at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30 p.m. ET

Nothing should give the Bills relief from the Patriots than a cross-country trip to play the Seahawks, right? Obviously, it's not an ideal situation for Buffalo. This remains their toughest game of the season, but it's also an opportunity for Ryan's bunch to make noise on national television. Record: 4-5.

Week 10: Bye week

Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 20 at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET

The Bills' mid-season slate doesn't get any easier with another road trip. If Tyrod Taylor stays healthy, he'll have his first crack at the Bengals after he missed Buffalo's loss to Cincinnati last season with an injury. It's a winnable game, but I'd be going out on a limb to predict a Bills victory at this point. Record: 4-6.

Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 27 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET

The Bills will look to put their debacle in London behind them with some home cooking. We're at the point in any schedule prediction where it gets harder and harder to prognosticate on how things will play out, but I feel comfortable with a Bills win here. Record: 5-6

Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 4 at Oakland Raiders, 4:05 p.m. ET

The Bills haven’t won in the Oakland Coliseum since Nov. 24, 1966, when Lyndon B. Johnson was president and the Super Bowl didn’t exist yet. I like the Raiders' gradual improvement, but I think the Bills keep themselves in the playoff mix and snap the streak. Record: 6-6.

Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 11 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET

I really like the Steelers' offensive core of Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown. But like the Cardinals game in Week 3, this is one where the Bills need to emerge with a win if they want to be considered playoff contenders. In this case, I think they pull it off. Record: 7-6.

Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 18 vs. Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET

The Browns will be limping to the finish line by this point in the season. Maybe the Bills will too, but I still like Buffalo's chances. Record: 8-6.

Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 24 vs. Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET

There's always a game where something goes terribly wrong for the Bills, and I'll make this game the annual tradition. The Bills should be beating the Dolphins on their home turf, possibly making a run for the playoffs, but like Buffalo's late-season loss in Oakland in 2014, the Bills can't seem to escape disappointment. Record: 8-7.

Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 1 at Jets, 1 p.m. ET

The Bills will probably need help from several teams to make the playoffs in this case, even with a New Year's win in the Big Apple. If they lose this game and miss the postseason (or even if they win it), would this be Ryan's final game as coach? Nobody knows for sure. Record: 8-8.