BUFFALO, N.Y. -- Faced with the possibility of his offensive coordinator leaving for a head coaching opportunity last offseason, Josh Allen made it clear who he wanted to take over.
“I do know there's a guy in this building that I'm a huge advocate for,” the Buffalo Bills quarterback said in January 2022.
Allen was referring to his then-quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey, who was hired as offensive coordinator to replace Brian Daboll -- who was Allen's OC for his first four seasons -- after he became coach of the New York Giants.
Dorsey’s first season as a playcaller is in the books. There were some positives, most notably a strong start before the team’s Week 7 bye when the offense largely appeared unstoppable. On the flip side, the offense struggled at times in the second half of the season as opposing defenses reacted to what Dorsey was doing and found ways to limit the Bills.
Being knocked out of the playoffs following the worst offensive performance of the season wasn’t reflective of the success the unit had, but more creative playcalling and providing Allen more support will be crucial going forward.
“There's a first year for everyone, and I thought Dorsey really did some good things, and there's some things that he can learn from as well,” coach Sean McDermott said. “And I know this -- when you're committed to a cause, and you work hard at things, and you put the team first, that you learn from experiences.”
How did Dorsey’s first year go? Let’s take a look at what worked well and what needs work for 2023.
The positives
The Bills won 14 games (including playoffs) and the offense scored fewer than 20 points just three times, including a season-low 10 in the playoff loss to the Bengals.
“I have nothing but the utmost respect for [Dorsey]. He's learning a lot as well,” guard Rodger Saffold said. “And I mean, you can't judge him off of those losses either because I mean, we're really winning games, we had second highest in points scored. I mean, that doesn't just come out of nowhere.”
Much of the Bills' statistical success from 2021 carried over from 2022. The Bills’ points scored per game was nearly identical. The offense improved in yards per game, going from ranking fifth in 2021 to second in 2022. Third-down conversion percentage also went up -- the Bills led the league with 50.3%. The Bills were also second in offensive total EPA (expected points added) in 2022.
Allen’s 2022 numbers were almost identical to 2021, finishing with the exact same completion percentage (63.3) and one fewer touchdown and interception in one fewer game played. While Allen's sacks were up (33 compared to 26 in 2021), and he had the NFL's most turnovers (19), he led three fourth-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives compared to zero of both in 2021.
“I thought he did a really good job of putting us in positions to be successful,” Allen said of Dorsey. “And if you look at the statistics and rankings, I mean, I think we're ranked statistically at least pretty high in basically all the metrics that you want to use. But again, I got to be better for him, and especially when he gives me some shot plays. I turned the ball over too many times this year.”
One thing the offense did well early in the season was get the ball in the hands of its best playmaker. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs started the season on pace for the best season of his career with six 100-yard receiving performances in the first nine games. Seven of his 11 receiving touchdowns came in the first seven games.
“I'm sitting in a different lens from being from a player, so yeah, I think he did a good job,” Diggs said, speaking with ESPN as part of an event sponsored by Gatorade. “I've had, I mean, at least five or six OCs since I've been in the league. It was a blessing to be around him. I think he was a hell of a guy, hell of a coach. And he did a great job of preparing us, so I think he did a good job.”
The rushing offense improved during the second half of the season. After averaging 117.8 rushing yards per game prior to the Week 7 bye (ranked 17th), the Bills finished the season averaging 152.5, a significant step in the right direction. Part of that was getting rookie running back James Cook more involved. The second-round pick went from 35 touches for 243 scrimmage yards in the first eight games to 75 touches for 444 yards in the last eight.
With running back Devin Singletary entering free agency, Cook could take on an even bigger role in 2023. The Bills may also look to add to the room especially if they are unable to restructure Nyheim Hines’ contract as he is set to account for almost $5 million in cap space.
What needs to be fixed
The Bills offense had a second-half slump, and it was a real issue. In four of the first six games, the offense surpassed 300 passing yards. In the final 12 games (including playoffs), the Bills reached 300 yards only twice. Part of that can be attributed to the improved rushing attack as well as the elbow injury Allen suffered against the Jets in Week 9, which affected Allen's throwing mechanics.
“I think our offense was really playing well through the bye,” general manager Brandon Beane said. “For whatever reason, I think the second half of the season, I don't know if some of it was, starting with Josh getting his arm hurt. I'm not saying it did, I'm just saying various things happened. That was when some more of the adversity hit.”
The inability to keep Diggs involved also played a part, but it was also the lack of reliable playmakers behind him. In 2021, slot receiver Cole Beasley caught 82 passes in the regular season. This past year, Diggs caught 108 passes and the next closest player was No. 2 receiver Gabe Davis with 48 (tied with tight end Dawson Knox) and then slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie with 42. Part of that is personnel, needing more players who can take advantage of opportunities in the middle of the field, get yards after catch and get open. Aside from Diggs (ranked 23rd in YAC), the Bills players who ranked highest in YAC among all pass-catchers were Singletary (68th) and Knox (99th).
At times in the second half of the season, the playcalling was questionable or didn’t make sense in the situation, like when Dorsey called for two straight deep passes to Davis in the playoffs against the Dolphins, both of which fell incomplete.
Another concern was why Hines wasn't used more as a receiver. The Bills acquired him from the Indianapolis Colts before the trade deadline, but he had just 13 offensive touches in 10 games (including playoffs) as a Bill with 12 targets. The team had been searching for a receiving back to add to the offense and then rarely used him. Hines showed his playmaking potential on special teams, with two kickoff returns for touchdowns.
“That's something that our offense looked at and sometimes it takes time to learn the playbook,” McDermott said. “After that point, really, it's something that I felt we could have done a better job with right there and make him more involved in the passing game.”
The Bills offense fell short in a variety of ways, but the first season under Dorsey was far from a failure. How the Bills adjust the roster this offseason will play a key role in how the unit could improve next season.
“A lot of room [for growth with Dorsey]. And the relationship that we have and the faith that we have in each other, and that's going to stay high,” Allen said. “Recency bias from this last game, I know everybody's going to lose their minds, but we did a lot of good things this year. And I trust him. He works so hard. He works tirelessly.”