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Analytics predict bright future for Panthers safety Jeremy Chinn

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Jeremy Chinn's NFL draft profile (0:42)

Check out the highlights from former Southern Illinois defensive back Jeremy Chinn's college career. (0:42)

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Former Denver Broncos safety Steve Atwater was selected to eight Pro Bowls, three All-Pro teams and most recently the Pro Football Hall of Fame, so he knows a thing or two about achieving greatness in the NFL.

So when told that ESPN Analytics had determined that his nephew, Carolina Panthers second-round pick Jeremy Chinn, had the best chance (45%) to make the Pro Bowl of any defensive back selected in the 2020 NFL draft, he understood why.

“He can do it all,” Atwater, now a team ambassador for the Broncos, said of the former Southern Illinois safety. “He’s tough. He’s fast. He’s smart.

“He’s going to have a really good career, man.”

The Panthers thought enough of Chinn to send their third-round pick (69th overall) and one of their two fifth-round (No. 168) picks to Seattle to move up to get him at No. 64. When asked what made Chinn so valuable, a source close to the situation said, “Think Simmons."

Carolina passed on Clemson’s do-it-all defensive player Isaiah Simmons with the seventh pick to select Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown. But like Simmons, who went a pick later in the first round to Arizona, Chinn can play safety, linebacker and nickel corner.

In a pinch, Chinn could play outside corner, his position at Fishers High School just outside of Indianapolis.

“If you like Isaiah Simmons and he’s a top-5 pick, I don’t know how you don’t like Jeremy Chinn,” Southern Illinois coach Nick Hill said. “Those same qualities.”

Poor man’s Isaiah Simmons

Chinn is 6-foot-3 and 221 pounds, similar to Simmons’ 6-4, 238. They both played four positions in college, defining what Carolina coach Matt Rhule calls a “positionless player.”

The biggest difference is the level of competition and path to college. Simmons was a five-star recruit, on most college lists since his early years in high school. Chinn was scrawny at best during his freshman and sophomore seasons and didn’t fully develop physically until his senior year. He was overlooked by major colleges.

Simmons also displayed elite speed, running the 40 in 4.39 seconds at the NFL combine. That, along with his other metrics, gives him a 67% chance of making the Pro Bowl as an outside linebacker, according to ESPN Analytics.

Chinn ran the 40 in 4.45 seconds, still exceptional for a player of his size and right there with Alabama wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, the 15th overall pick by Denver.

That speed gives the Panthers the option to put Chinn on a speedy receiver in the slot and perhaps occasionally outside.

His speed helps put Chinn ahead of safeties taken ahead of him, according to ESPN analytics. Alabama’s Xavier McKinney, who went No. 36, was given a 36% chance of making the Pro Bowl. The odds for LSU’s Grant Delpit, taken at No. 44, were set at 41%. Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield Jr., picked at No. 45, came in at 34%.

“He’s faster than I was,” Atwater said of his nephew. “Much faster than I was. The thing I like most is that he’s not afraid to step up and put his body in the way and create a big collision. That for me is still exciting. I know the game has got away from that, but it’s still kind of fun for old-school people me who like to see that physicality.”

Physicality

Atwater was known for his ferocious hits, none more so than the 1990 Monday Night Football lick that sent Kansas City’s 253-pound Christian Okoye backward. It was selected as one of the greatest 100 plays in league history.

Had social media been around then, the YouTube video would have gone viral.

Chinn’s physicality can be seen in many of his highlights, such as a safety blitz against Youngstown State in which he made a strip sack.

“I called it earlier in the game, and he didn’t believe it was there,” Southern Illinois defensive coordinator Jason Petrino said. “He kind of hesitated. At halftime we talked about it. I said I’m going to call it again. When I do, you need to make the play. I called it, and he looked like he was shot out of a cannon. Unbelievable.”

If Chinn really wanted to turn heads, he would post the videos he keeps on his cellphone of him dunking a basketball. That truly shows his athletic ability.

“He could win the NBA dunk contest, between the legs, whatever you want,” Hill said.

Chinn doesn’t share the videos on social media because that’s not who he is.

“Ask anybody,” Hill said. “If you ask our janitors, they would say he’s so humble. It’s not like he walks around with this look-at-me attitude. He’s a confident kid. You hear that a lot. But he’s a kid you’d want your daughter to marry. He’s an A-plus kid.”

Lineage and mom

Atwater isn’t the only athlete in Chinn’s family. His father, James Chinn, was a star safety at Southeast Missouri State from 1989 to 1992.

But it was Chinn’s mother, Nichelle Thruston, who was his driving force.

“She pushed him and allowed coaches to do that,” recently retired Fishers High coach Rick Wimmer said. “I remember one day his mom brought him to practice and he was on crutches. His mom came up and said, ‘Jeremy is kind of proud of his crutches. I think he needs to understand he really doesn’t need those things."

“One of the coaches went to Jeremy. We had a big game against Carmel coming up. He said, 'Too bad you won’t be able to play.' That was the last time we saw the crutches.”

Chinn suffered a hamstring injury during his junior year that made for a lackluster season.

“The trainer and two doctors said the only thing he could do was rest or the muscles are going to come off the bone,” then-Fishers High secondary coach Joe Riordan recalled.

By the time Chinn was a senior, he had been overlooked in the recruiting process to the point that he got offers only from a handful of smaller schools.

Injuries also hampered Chinn in his final two years at Southern Illinois. His plantar fasciitis got so bad that Chinn didn’t know whether he would finish his senior season.

“He felt like he was letting his coaches down, letting teammates down,” Hill said. “I told him, ‘Look, if you don’t play another down here, you’re not letting anyone down. You’ve done so much for me personally, this program. ...'

“In the two games he had to sit out, he was coaching on the sideline. He was so into the game. He just loves to play. That’s why he’ll be so successful.”

Riordan agreed, recalling the list of goals Chinn set that makes him optimistic that the analytics are spot-on.

“Obviously, you tell anybody in the draft class they’re going to be an All-Pro and they’re going to smile,” he said. “Jeremy is going to smile, be excited and then five minutes later he’s gonna forget about it. His goal is to go win a Super Bowl. If you want to talk about individual goals, he wants to be a Hall of Famer. He wants to be like his uncle.

“He wants to be in the same conversation as Deion Sanders and Ronnie Lott and Steve Atwater. He wants to be known for generations to come.”

Petrino, a nephew of former Atlanta Falcons coach Bobby Petrino, predicts big things.

“I’ve coached other players that have made it to the NFL, but he’s the best player I’ve ever coached,” said Jason Petrino, who has coached in the college ranks since 2000. “Athletically, the best player I’ve ever been around. Work ethic and being a good person, the best I’ve been around.

“There’s a few people who are going to go back in a few years and say, ‘Wow, I had the opportunity to take Jeremy Chinn.’”