CHARLOTTE, N.C. – This is not your typical free-agency primer for the Carolina Panthers.
That’s because what the Panthers do in free agency, which begins with legal tampering Monday, is expected to be tied to what happens Friday in a courtroom in Houston.
That’s where a grand jury will begin its process of determining if Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson should be indicted on legal charges stemming from criminal complaints filed last year by 10 women alleging sexual misconduct against the three-time Pro Bowl selection.
If the grand jury doesn’t indict, and Watson is left with the 22 civil cases alleging inappropriate behavior against him, the Panthers are expected to be among a group of teams that will aggressively pursue a trade with the Texans.
A decision could come as quickly as Friday. It could spill over into Monday. It could last longer.
For the Panthers, since they don’t have a lot of salary-cap space (approximately $13 million for free agents after money is left aside for draft picks, injured reserve and potential trades), it will be essential to know the outcome of Watson’s criminal case before becoming too aggressive in free agency.
For example, if Carolina were to spend a big chunk of money in free agency the first day or so, it would be difficult to find a way to fit Watson under the salary cap. Any team that trades for the 2017 first-round pick out of Clemson would be responsible for a $35 million cap hit, unless the contract is restructured.
That likely would be the best option for Carolina or any other team with a tight cap situation.
In terms of the free-agent market beyond quarterback, the Panthers have needs on the offensive line and for a veteran safety to play beside Jeremy Chinn. They also could look to add depth on the defensive front.
There are a handful of guards the Panthers might be more likely to pursue if Watson is off the table because they will demand a higher price, although not the top dollar a starting left tackle like the New Orleans Saints’ Terron Armstead will get.
Armstead likely is off the table, regardless, with an expected average salary of around $20 million a year.
There also are a handful of young tackles on the verge of becoming top-tier players who could come into play for Carolina.
Regardless, expect the Panthers to be cautiously aggressive the first couple of days of free agency -- or until Watson’s criminal case plays out. Even then, don’t look for them to go on a spending spree, because the money isn’t there.
If Watson isn’t indicted, the Panthers still face obstacles. Watson would have to waive his no-trade clause. The only team he reportedly was willing to waive the clause for last year was the Miami Dolphins.
However, it’s doubtful the Panthers would be interested in Watson now if they believed he wouldn’t waive the clause.
Also to consider, the Texans reportedly have been asking for three first-round draft picks, in addition to other draft picks and players. The Panthers have the sixth pick in the 2022 draft, but no other pick this year until the fourth round.
Beyond mortgaging future first-round draft picks, they could be left this year without a pick to upgrade the line until the fourth round.
That likely means 2021 third-round pick Brady Christensen would be the left tackle in 2022 with Cameron Erving backing him up. That’s not a horrible option, since Christensen played well enough the final two games at left tackle that coach Matt Rhule wished he’d played the former Brigham Young star more as a rookie in 2021.
Still, there wouldn’t be a complete overhaul of a line that allowed 52 sacks in 2021.
Trading for Watson also likely would assure the Panthers don’t re-sign cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore or Donte Jackson because the price tag would be too high. They likely will be too high regardless, so you could see a combination of 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn and former Jacksonville Jaguars first-round pick C.J. Henderson starting there next season.
Or the Panthers could add a midlevel corner in free agency for a bargain.
Trading for Watson wouldn’t impact what happens with 2021 sack leader Haason Reddick. The edge rusher likely will demand $12 million the Panthers don’t have, but if he doesn’t get that and the market settles, he could return.
Doubtful, but possible.
The Panthers are in the predicament of waiting on Watson because they couldn’t reach a deal to acquire him from the Texans last year before his legal issues surfaced. Then they tried to trade for Matthew Stafford, who went to the Los Angeles Rams and won the Super Bowl.
Carolina ultimately traded for New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold, the third pick of the 2018 draft. They gave up a sixth-round pick in 2021, plus a second- and fourth-rounder in 2022. They also picked up Darnold’s fifth-year option, guaranteeing him $18.9 million this year.
It became clear last season Darnold wasn’t the answer, as he went 4-7 as the starter, and Cam Newton lost all six of his starts. So the Panthers are back in the quarterback market, and Watson would become the best option, if he isn't indicted.
Watson is 26, and he proved in four seasons he has superstar potential. Rhule has some history with giving players second chances. He gave Robby Anderson a second chance at Temple after the receiver quit the team. Anderson went on to play 16 games for the Jets as an undrafted rookie in 2016.
The Panthers also aren’t going into this blind. Aaron Wilson, who covers the NFL for Pro Football Network and previously worked for the Houston Chronicle, tweeted Carolina was “all-in’’ on trading for Watson if he’s cleared.
He noted: “Panthers owner David Tepper previously hired an investigator to thoroughly look into Watson’s legal issues.’’ It appears the Panthers have done their due diligence.
There still are no assurances Carolina will get Watson. The Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a handful of other teams likely have their eyes on him and what’s happening in Houston on Friday.
Seattle has a lot more to offer than Carolina in terms of draft picks after trading quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos earlier in the week. Tampa Bay and the Indianapolis Colts are better equipped to make a Super Bowl than the Panthers, who haven’t had a winning record since 2017.
But that won’t stop Carolina from trying to make a trade, and that could mean waiting a bit early in free agency.