ALLEN PARK, Michigan -- The Detroit Lions are once again embarking on a shift in power, a potential change in culture and a new look throughout the organization.
But is this a job high up on the wish list of top-tier candidates? Trying to figure out the attractiveness of the Lions' open general manager and head coaching jobs is somewhat tricky.
It’s not clear how many of jobs will be open by season’s end -- and if you’re Detroit and interested in someone not currently in the NFL (perhaps John Dorsey or Louis Riddick as GM? A college head coach?), you can meet with those people virtually for now.
Will the franchise be able to get it right after six-plus decades of futility? What would make this job an attractive one to a potential candidate? What would scare them off?
There are things worth considering:
The draft
The Lions, for now, have five picks in the 2021 draft -- including selections in the top four rounds. Trading for Everson Griffen, an on-field benefit for Detroit but a free agent after the season, will cost Detroit either its fifth-or-sixth round pick. Detroit’s seventh rounder went to Seattle as part of the Quandre Diggs trade last season.
The Griffen deal made sense at the time -- Detroit was 3-3 and trying to bolster up its biggest weakness, the pass rush, in trying to make a postseason push. The Diggs deal remains a poor one.
The Lions are largely intact for the 2022 draft, so from a pick standpoint this is an OK situation to inherit. It is better than, say, Houston, without a first-or-second round pick this season.
It is less attractive from a draft capital perspective than Jacksonville, which could have a Top 3 pick and a chance to possibly select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence or Ohio State's Justin Fields. It also has another first rounder from the Rams in the Jalen Ramsey trade. Of the four open general manager slots, the Jaguars have the most picks in 2021, including two firsts, two seconds and two fourths.
It’s unlikely Detroit’s pick will be in the Top 5. Depending how the season shakes out it might not be in the Top 10, either. So grabbing a can’t-miss elite talent could be tough for the new general manager/head coach combination. Picking in the middle of the first round has been good for teams in the past. Based on how much the new regime believes Detroit needs to rebuild, it could put assets together to attempt to move up if it needed or back to pick up more picks.
The roster
This starts with Matthew Stafford -- and becomes part of the draft equation, too. Stafford will be 33 next season with two years left on his deal, so one of the first decisions the new staff will need to make is whether or not to continue with Stafford long-term.
If a prospective GM believes Stafford is the guy, the job becomes more attractive because the quarterback is in place, like in Houston and, maybe, Atlanta. If not, the draft situation and likely inability to take Lawrence or Fields would lessen the immediate attractiveness.
Stafford’s cap hit in 2021 is $16 million, but also going to be due a $10 million roster bonus on the fifth day of the new league year. He carries a $33 million cap hit in 2021, which could stunt some of a rebuild process.
It gets a little easier in 2022, where he once again has a $10 million roster bonus on the fifth day of the league year but his dead money drops to $3 million and his cap hit shrinks to $26 million. The Lions, by then, should know whether they plan to sign him to another extension or have started the transition process to the quarterback of the future.
Free agency decisions on receiver Kenny Golladay and defensive ends Romeo Okwara and Griffen would be the bigger short-term ones for the new boss, but the larger concern lies with how many pieces does Detroit have in place to truly build around?
On offense, beyond potentially Stafford, Detroit has running back D’Andre Swift, guard Jonah Jackson, receiver Quintez Cephus and tight end T.J. Hockenson still early in their rookie contracts. Center Frank Ragnow is entering the fourth year of his deal -- picking up his fifth-year option should be a no-brainer -- and he’s a candidate for a long-term extension. Left tackle Taylor Decker is in place for a while.
Defensively, it’s not as bright. Defensive end Trey Flowers is signed through 2023 and will at least be on the team in 2021. Julian Okwara has talent but is unknown. Rookie John Penisini, last year’s sixth-round pick, has been a surprise. Linebacker Jamie Collins Sr. is an interesting case. He’s 30 and has been inconsistent this season, but he’s going to at least be on the roster in 2021 with $7 million in guaranteed money. Cornerback has potential with Amani Oruwariye emerging and 2020 No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah. Tracy Walker is a talented safety who has had a bad year. On special teams, the Lions do have punter Jack Fox.
That isn’t exactly a huge young corps to build around. Cap space is tricky, too. Over the Cap has the Lions with $13,761,410 in cap space for 2021, which is better some other openings in Houston (-$11,050,834) and Atlanta (-$25,254,296). The Jaguars ($79,676,992) have a ton of cap room and as far as jobs with just potential head coaching openings, the Jets ($79,634,956) and Chargers ($32,244,947) have more room to maneuver.
Cap space can be created with veteran cuts if they decided to move on. Cornerbacks Justin Coleman ($9 million in savings if post-June 1 cut-designated) and Desmond Trufant ($6.5 million if post-June 1), defensive tackles Nick Williams ($4.7 million) and Danny Shelton ($4 million), tight end Jesse James ($5 million if post-June 1) and linebacker Christian Jones ($3,649,999 if post-June 1) could be candidates based on numbers from OTC.
This doesn’t account for some contracts Detroit will be stuck with in 2021, including offensive lineman Halapoulivaati Vaitai ($10.4 million in cap in 2021) and potentially Trufant ($12.5 million). Both players have struggled with injuries, so perhaps 2021 is a bounce-back year for them.
The organization
The Fords are known as good bosses to work for because of their patience in letting people see their visions through, good or bad, and have largely not meddled in football matters. It’s unclear how hands-on Sheila Ford Hamp will be, but every indication thus far is she will be doing more than her parents did.
The bigger question for any general manager -- and head coach, really -- will be structure. The front office decision-makers report to team president Rod Wood at least during this interim process. Wood, who largely handles the business-side operations of the franchise, isn’t going anywhere although it is possible his role might be altered.
“I have no plans to change what Rod is doing,” Hamp said. “But we’re looking at some organizational chart moves and it’s all going to be part of this process.”
What the future structure looks like is unknown -- Hamp said it could depend on the candidates. That could be attractive to some football executives and concerning to others, who might want more of an understanding of what they’ll be getting when they walk in the door and a direct line to the owner.
There’s also the history of the franchise. No head coach in the modern era has taken the Lions job and then been hired as a head coach in the NFL again, although Jim Caldwell and potentially Jim Schwartz could eventually change that. It’s rare on its face, but no Lions general manager in the modern era has gotten another NFL GM job, either, something Martin Mayhew could potentially do down the road.
And there is likely enough professional ego from whomever takes both jobs that they could make it work -- otherwise, why take the post? It is the reality of coming to work for the Lions.
If history is the guide, this is very likely that person’s only shot at the top chair.