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Prediction: Chiefs will beat Texans in close, otherwise ugly game

Alex Smith is 1-1 in season openers as the Chiefs' starting quarterback, winning at Jacksonville in 2013 and losing to Tennessee in 2014. Christian Petersen/Getty Images

HOUSTON – The Houston Texans will present a lot of problems to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, problems the Texans pose for each of their opponents. The Texans will feature football’s best defensive player in J.J. Watt, an immovable object in 325-pound nose tackle Vince Wilfork and the first pick in the 2014 draft in linebacker Jadeveon Clowney just in their front seven alone.

Houston isn’t so fearsome on offense. The Texans will play without their most dangerous offensive player, running back Arian Foster, and its quarterback is a journeyman, Brian Hoyer.

This matchup for the Chiefs reminds me a little of their last two games against the Buffalo Bills, who were also loaded in their front seven but quarterbacked first by a rookie, Jeff Tuel, and then a journeyman, Kyle Orton.

Both of those games were on the road and they were both ugly for the Chiefs except, of course, they won. Defensive players scored two touchdowns in the 2013 victory and the Chiefs came up with two big plays and a great defensive stand in the fourth quarter last year.

I see a game Sunday similar to those in Buffalo. The Texans will make things difficult for the Chiefs and force them to make big plays at crucial junctures to escape with a victory.

Are the Chiefs up to that? They rebuilt their offensive line, which will feature four new starters from last year. But the Chiefs didn’t take a snap with this line as its stands during the preseason. Rookie center Mitch Morse and right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif will be playing in their first regular season games. It’s going to be loud, making things more difficult.

Otherwise, the Chiefs have a healthy Jamaal Charles. Travis Kelce is in their lineup as a regular now, as opposed to the part-timer he was last year. They added Jeremy Maclin, the most talented wide receiver they’ve had in years. Quarterback Alex Smith had a big game in his last appearance in the preseason.

So the Chiefs have enough offense to get the job done. They won’t get it done consistently. When the Chiefs have the ball, the Texans will win their share of their share of the battles and perhaps more than their share.

That’s what the Bills did in each of their games against the Chiefs. This time, the Chiefs are better offensively. They might or might not get that elusive wide receiver touchdown. But they will get something more important, a season-opening victory.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Texans 16.