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Playoffs? Vikings need to beat good teams, starting with Bucs

MINNEAPOLIS -- The Minnesota Vikings' postgame has felt different the past two weeks, embodying a sense of relief rather than excitement after back-to-back nail-biting wins.

As Dan Bailey's 23-yard field goal sailed through the uprights with 1:53 to go in overtime, signifying the end of a mistake-filled 27-24 win over the 1-11 Jacksonville Jaguars, the fanfare was kept to a minimum. Most players jogged to the locker room quickly rather than dawdle on the field and congratulate one another, eager to move past this excruciatingly ugly game. Not even those in game-day operations recognized this walk-off victory with the typical playing of "Skol Vikings" over the stadium's PA system.

"Usually after you win a game there's a lot of hootin' and hollerin' going on in the locker room," coach Mike Zimmer said. "The last two weeks it hasn't been like that because they know they can play way better than what they're playing, so I think right now they feel fortunate to be where they are but they understand -- I know they understand and I continue to preach it -- that we have to stop doing these things. It's going to cost us games down the road. If we stop doing those things and we continue to play with the heart and fight and things we have, we have a chance to play."

Although the Vikings are very much in the playoff hunt, having clawed their way to a 6-6 record after a 1-5 start, they haven't played well the past three weeks. Even with Kirk Cousins throwing three touchdowns each week since the Dallas loss on Nov. 22 and delivering game-winning drives in two straight victories, this stretch has been a struggle despite the results.

"You really don't want to win every game the way we had to do it today, but we'll take the win, for sure," Cousins said. "Offensively it felt like an up-and-down game. There were positives. We had some guys that played very well, but there were just mistakes scattered throughout that were very costly, and they had an impact on the flow of the game. And again, we're fortunate to be able to overcome them."

At the Vikings' Week 7 bye, ESPN's FPI gave them a 3% chance to make the playoffs. That probability has inched its way up and now stands at 34%. With an assist from the Rams beating the Cardinals on Sunday, the Vikings slid into the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoff picture.

"It's a credit to their heart right now that they're winning games by making these kind of mistakes, to be honest with you," Zimmer said.

With four games left, the Vikings' tallest task will be showing they can beat a team with a winning record. That's happened only once this season, when Minnesota took down the Green Bay Packers on the road in Week 8 to spark its second-half comeback.

The Vikings get an opportunity to show they can beat a winning team on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX) on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team also fighting to remain relevant in the playoff picture.

Sunday's win over the Jaguars was a reminder of how important the run game is for Minnesota. At halftime, the Vikings had just over 100 yards of offense. Dalvin Cook then turned his 2.6 yards per carry into 24 runs and 99 yards in the second half and overtime, orchestrating a comeback that ended with Justin Jefferson becoming the fifth rookie to reach 1,000 yards receiving in his first 12 games.

While that formula feels predictable -- and it certainly is -- it will remain the plan over the final four games. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Minnesota has called a run play 51.3% of the time on first and second down combined, which ranks fourth in the NFL. While there's a benefit of being less predictable against a Bucs defense allowing a league-low 74.2 rushing yards per game, deviating from that strategy now doesn't seem like an option. The Vikings clearly will ride Cook as far as he will take them no matter how much wear and tear he absorbs.

It's also evident that Jefferson will continue to be a focus of the offense. After two catches for 12 yards in the first half, Jefferson had seven catches for 109 yards and a touchdown in the second half.

But what's most apparent is the Vikings can't get away with the same mistakes against winning teams like the Bucs and expect to be playing in the postseason.