FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- A promising 2021 season that at one point in early December had the New England Patriots as the AFC's top seed ended with a disappointing late plunge. That's the backdrop as the team looks forward to the 2022 season.
On the bright side, there is hope under 2021 first-round draft choice Mac Jones at quarterback.
At the same time, there are lingering questions about why the defense and special teams faded so dramatically when it counted, and if the Jones-led offense can grow while the coaching staff undergoes a significant change after the departures of coordinator Josh McDaniels and multiple assistants.
Coach Bill Belichick, who turns 70 in April, said in the aftermath of a 47-17 playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills that he didn't want to diminish the importance of the game, but that he'd also be looking closely at every other game of a 10-8 season.
Saying the playoff performance was the "least competitive" of the year, he said: "Is that what we are? Or is that a bad night? We'll see when we start playing again next year, I guess."
Projected salary-cap space: $9.4 million
Top free agents: LB Ja'Whaun Bentley, OT Trent Brown, K Nick Folk, LB Dont'a Hightower, QB Brian Hoyer, CB J.C. Jackson, G/C Ted Karras, S Devin McCourty, ST Matthew Slater, RB James White
Potential cut candidates: Starting right guard Shaq Mason is due to count $10.1 million on the salary cap, and with no guaranteed money as part of his deal, his status bears watching. Meanwhile, the team's top picks in the 2019 draft -- receiver N'Keal Harry and cornerback Joejuan Williams -- were trending in the wrong direction performance-wise by the end of the season.
What you need to know: Things can essentially be narrowed down to three layers: 1. What can the Patriots do personnel-wise (e.g. another receiving threat) to better support Jones' growth? 2. What happened to the defense at the end of the season, and what is being done to ensure it doesn't happen again? 3. Why did their once-dominant special teams units drop off so badly? Coach Bill Belichick often talks about playing complementary football and weaving all three phases together, and doing a better job in that area in 2022 figures to be a big emphasis this offseason. One specific issue on defense is recent Day 2 draft picks -- 2019 third-round pick Chase Winovich, 2020 second-rounder Josh Uche and 2020 third-rounder Anfernee Jennings -- as nonfactors down the stretch. There seems to be a breakdown somewhere in the draft-and-develop process with those young linebackers.
Best-case offseason scenario: Jackson signs an extension, longtime leaders McCourty and Slater (special teams) return for another season, the offensive line is solidified with the return of Karras, steady kicker Folk re-signs ... and the draft brings a dynamic receiver and more speed, versatility and intelligence on defense.
Worst-case offseason scenario: Changes on the offensive coaching staff stunt Jones' development and the draft looks more like 2019 than 2021 -- when mistakes were made with top picks who ideally would be coming into their prime at this time.
Early look at the NFL draft, from ESPN analyst Jordan Reid: With Jackson hitting free agency, the Patriots could address the cornerback position early in this draft. Linebacker could also be another position that the team fills. Building around Jones should continue to be an emphasis, and adding a starting-caliber pass-catcher is needed as the team lacks go-to options.
Top needs: CB, WR, LB
Top pick: No. 21