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Predicting Marlins' 2016 season record

Reason for optimism: Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez are scheduled to take the field together on Opening Day for the first time since May 9, 2014.

Reason for pessimism: C'mon, it's the Marlins.

The accepted wisdom among many commentators this spring is that there is such a clear distinction between the teams that are trying to win in the National League, and those engaged in a tear-down, that there are only eight teams vying for five playoff spots. Therefore, it's reasoned, only three teams are going to end the season disappointed. Cue Leo Corso -- "Not so fast, my friends."

Twenty-eight games. Why is that a significant data point?