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Special to ESPN.com- Licensed professional engineer with 20 years experience
- Uses advanced metrics to find betting market inefficiencies
- Specializes in NFL and CFB totals
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ESPN Sports Betting Analyst- Professional sports bettor finding advantages in inefficient markets
- Joined ESPN in 2019
- MS Sport Psychology, University of Utah
It's Week 13 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be featured in a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-5.5)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent picked Houston
Johnson: I really like the under 47.5 in this one. Not only does my raw projection come in at 44.3, but the matchups specifically between the Browns and Texans bode well for an under play. Cleveland's recent uptick offensively against the Chiefs, Falcons and a depleted Bengals team is my best guess for the overreaction in this total being so high. I'd like to see them prove it against a Texans defense that ranks top-five against the run and the pass.
Despite the Baker Mayfield talk week in and week out, the Browns' strength has actually been a rushing attack that ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per carry. Facing a Houston front that defends the run game so effectively will force Cleveland's 29th-ranked passing offense to try and beat them through the air.
For the Texans, their strength lies in Deshaun Watson picking apart secondaries.