The 2024 NFL playoffs are here, and the No. 1 seeds in each conference -- the Chiefs in the AFC and the Lions in the NFC -- will receive first-round byes. The remaining 12 teams will play in next weekend's three-day wild-card round. Two games will be played Saturday; three are slated for Sunday; and the action will culminate in a Monday night contest that will be broadcast by ESPN/ABC.
Which teams are ready for deep playoff runs? Which ones have concerns that might impact their wild-card weekend matchups? And which players could play big parts in their teams getting to the Super Bowl?
Here's what each of the 14 playoff teams must do to reach Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. Our NFL Nation team reporters picked out strengths and weaknesses for each franchise, and analytics writer Seth Walder identified a key stat to know for each club. Then Ben Solak gave his heat check (rating from 1 to 10) for each playoff squad. We also sized up all 14 teams' updated chances to win it all with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). (Odds are via ESPN BET.)
AFC:
1. Chiefs
2. Bills vs. 7. Broncos
3. Ravens vs. 6. Steelers
4. Texans vs. 5. Chargers
NFC:
1. Lions
2. Eagles vs. 7. Packers
3. Buccaneers vs. 6. Commanders
4. Rams vs. 5. Vikings
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +350
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 27.9%
First game outlook: The Chiefs get the AFC's top seed for the second time in three seasons and the fifth time since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback. They will play in the divisional round against the lowest-seeded wild-card team remaining (the No. 4 Texans, No. 5 Chargers, No. 6 Steelers or No. 7 Broncos) on either Saturday, Jan. 18, or Sunday, Jan. 19. The Chiefs have a combined 5-1 record against those teams, sweeping both games with the Chargers, beating both Houston and Pittsburgh in a stretch from Dec. 21-25 and splitting two games with the Broncos. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: A revitalized offense. The return of receiver Hollywood Brown, the development of rookie wideout Xavier Worthy and All-Pro guard Joe Thuney's play at left tackle has the offense looking like the Chiefs hoped it would all season. Kansas City played two of its best offensive games of the season in Weeks 16 and 17, its last regular-season games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the starters. "We built up to the perfect spot," Mahomes said. "We've gotten better and better before Hollywood got here. Xavier started playing better, being more confident ... it kind of sets everybody perfectly in their roles."
Reason for concern: Pass protection. The protection has improved since Thuney moved from left guard to left tackle, but Mahomes was still sacked 36 times this season, the most he has ever taken. The Chiefs are still struggling to generate big pass plays due to Mahomes being forced to throw the ball quickly. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor is the third-most penalized player in the league with 17 penalties, and those penalties have been something the Chiefs have struggled to overcome this season. -- Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Chris Jones recorded 62 pass rush wins this season, the most by a defensive tackle. It's actually the most by a lot. The Broncos' Zach Allen finished with 52, while the Seahawks' Leonard Williams finished third with 40. I bring this up because it has been a quiet season for Jones on the sack front (only five), but make no mistake, the Chiefs still have a game-wrecker at defensive tackle who could make a huge difference in the playoffs. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 10. The Chiefs proved their immortality time and time again this season, and they enter the postseason with a first-round bye, home-field advantage and a healthy Brown and Isiah Pacheco. How could this not be a 10? -- Solak
2. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +475
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 67.6%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 21.3%
First game outlook: The Bills will start their sixth straight postseason by hosting the No. 7-seeded Broncos on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Buffalo did not play the Broncos this season, with their last game against Denver resulting in a 24-22 Monday night loss at home in Week 10 of the 2023 season. That game ended with the Broncos kicking a walk-off field goal after the Bills were penalized for 12 men on the field on a game-winning miss the previous play. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: Quarterback Josh Allen. The favorite for MVP put together his best regular season to date and has historically thrived in the postseason. Allen led the Bills' offense to 12 games scoring 30 points or more this season, and Buffalo has committed only eight turnovers, tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest in a season since 1933. "I don't like to make comparisons; I played with Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. Those guys are special in their own right," defensive end Von Miller said. "But this year, Josh is just doing something totally different, and he's not forcing it. He's not trying too hard, he's not looking for it; it's just him."
Reason for concern: Third-down defense. The Bills' defense has been inconsistent this season and has allowed the fourth-highest third-down conversion percentage in the NFL (43.8%). The Bills won't be able to primarily rely on forcing turnovers against the strong offenses they will face in the AFC playoffs. Buffalo must be able to get off the field on third down. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Allen has the lowest sack rate (2.6%), fourth-lowest interception rate (1.1%) and fifth-lowest fumble rate (0.8%) among QBR-qualified quarterbacks. When we think of Allen, we often think of huge runs (he is second to Jayden Daniels among quarterbacks in EPA on designed carries and scrambles) and his elite arm. But perhaps his best skill is avoiding mistakes and negative plays. It's a huge part of why he's exceptional and, possibly, the NFL MVP. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 8. The Bills didn't have much to play for in Week 18, but they ended the season winning 10 of their last 12 games and with arguably the best offense in football. They feel deservedly great entering the postseason. -- Solak
James Cook powers his way through the defense for a 1-yard rush and secures a Bills touchdown.
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +550
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 72.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 27.1%
First game outlook: The Ravens will play a rubber match against the AFC North rival Steelers in Baltimore on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). They split their two regular-season meetings, as the Steelers won 18-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 11 and the Ravens won the rematch 34-17 in Baltimore in Week 16 to take the AFC North lead for good. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: The Ravens have been playing their best ball at the end of the season. They won their final four games, outscoring opponents 135-43 in a stretch that included victories over the playoff-bound Steelers and Texans. While quarterback Lamar Jackson and the NFL's No. 1 offense get the headlines, Baltimore's defense has held teams to a league-low 15.4 points per game over the past seven weeks. "Our plan now is to peak at the right time," cornerback Marlon Humphrey said, "and I feel like we're doing that."
Reason for concern: Jackson's surprisingly poor playoff track record. He is the only quarterback with multiple MVPs who hasn't captured a Super Bowl title. Jackson has a 2-4 postseason record, throwing six interceptions and losing three fumbles. In his four playoff losses, the Ravens have averaged only 10.5 points and haven't exceeded the 20-point mark. "The story's still being written," coach John Harbaugh said of Jackson, "and there's a lot more to accomplish." -- Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: In Weeks 1-10, the Ravens ranked 29th in EPA allowed per opponent dropback (0.15). But in Weeks 11-18, they ranked first (minus-0.15) in the same category. I'm stealing this observation from Solak, but the Ravens have employed Kyle Hamilton as a safety on 69.3% of his snaps since Week 11. Before that, he split time among safety, slot corner and linebacker, playing safety on only 26% of his snaps. That likely isn't the only factor, but the numbers say it matters. Baltimore has been better when Hamilton is aligned at safety than when he isn't. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 9. Jackson made a great December MVP push, the defense has been excellent since the secondary reshuffling, and the Ravens won the AFC North over Pittsburgh. If not for the Zay Flowers injury, this would be a perfect 10. -- Solak
4. Houston Texans (10-7)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 47.6%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 6.1%
First game outlook: The Texans made the playoffs for the second straight season and will host the No. 5-seeded Chargers on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). This is the eighth time since 2011 that the Texans have hosted a game on wild-card weekend. Houston is 5-2 in those games, most recently defeating the Browns 45-14 last season. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: The defense. Houston's D has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 54.7, the seventh-lowest in the NFL. The Texans put relentless pressure on quarterbacks leading to 49 sacks, tied for fourth in the league. Danielle Hunter is tied for fifth in the league with 12 sacks, and second-year edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has 11. The unit also has Pro Bowl cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie safety Calen Bullock, who each has five interceptions -- tied for sixth in the NFL.
Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistency. The Texans' offense is 18th in scoring (20.5 offensive points per game), so if the defense isn't locking opponents down, Houston could be in trouble. One look that has given quarterback C.J. Stroud issues is split-safety coverage, as he has a 36.0 QBR against split safeties (28th in the NFL). The offensive line hasn't exactly helped its quarterback, as Stroud has been pressured 35.8% of the time this season, fourth highest in the NFL. -- DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Texans rank 24th in EPA per play since Week 10. Anyone watching the NFL this season knows that Houston has struggled on offense. But struggle is putting it too mildly. The Texans have been bad. In fact, the passing game has been down so much in that span that it has a worse EPA per play rank than the running game. And that's another thing everyone knows about Houston -- it can't run the ball! -- Walder
Heat check rating: 5. The Texans didn't have the regular season they expected, but beating up on the Titans sure is a nice way to end things. So long as they have Stroud, Nico Collins and that pass rush, they have a chance. -- Solak
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +2500
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 52.4%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 8.8%
First game outlook: The Chargers are in the playoffs for the second time in the past three seasons and will play at Houston on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). The Chargers have never played the Texans in the playoffs and are making only their fourth playoff appearance since 2010. Los Angeles' last playoff game didn't go well, as it squandered a 27-0 first-half lead and lost 31-30 to the Jaguars on a walk-off field goal in the 2022 wild-card round. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: Jim Harbaugh. In Harbaugh's previous NFL coaching stint, the 49ers made three NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl in four seasons. By comparison, the Chargers have played in only four conference championships in franchise history, the most recent coming during the 2007 season, and one Super Bowl. Harbaugh's previous playoff success, plus the turnaround he has engineered in getting a team that was 5-12 in 2023 into the postseason, gives L.A. hope.
Reason for concern: Inconsistent offense. Offense has been the Chargers' Achilles' heel all season, particularly in the second half of games. The Bolts average 10.3 second-half points, ranking 19th in the league. L.A.'s league-leading scoring defense has helped mask the offense's second-half disappearing act, but a continuation could knock the Chargers out of the playoffs quickly. -- Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Chargers rank in the top six in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback. It's particularly impressive because they've done it without an amazing pass rush -- they rank 22nd in pass rush win rate. L.A.'s reasonably high 7.1% sack rate is probably more a function of an impressive secondary. Derwin James Jr. has the lowest yards per coverage snap allowed (0.5) among players with 200 coverage snaps and primarily lines up as a slot corner -- but outside corner Kristian Fulton and rookies Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart have been solid, too. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 5. The decline of the defense has turned the Chargers from AFC playoff spoiler to likely one-and-done, but the Justin Herbert-Ladd McConkey connection is a fun one. Mixed vibes here. -- Solak
Justin Herbert throws a 6-yard touchdown pass to DJ Chark Jr. to give the Chargers a 17-10 lead heading into halftime vs. the Raiders.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +7500
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 27.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 4.1%
First game outlook: The Steelers will play at the rival Ravens, facing No. 3-seed Baltimore on Saturday in the wild-card round (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). Pittsburgh is 3-1 against the Ravens in the playoffs but lost the most recent meeting in the 2014 wild-card round. The Steelers enter this matchup on a five-game playoff losing streak dating to a divisional round victory over the Chiefs in the 2016 playoffs. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: Russell Wilson. Despite a recent string of red zone turnovers, Wilson gives the offense the kind of juice it has consistently lacked since Ben Roethlisberger's 2019 elbow injury. In 11 starts, Wilson has completed 19 of 41 attempts of more than 20 air yards for four touchdowns and one interception. A year ago, three Steelers quarterbacks combined to complete only 15 of 52 attempts on such passes for four touchdowns and six interceptions.
Reason for concern: Defensive lapses. Missed assignments and communication shortcomings have contributed to the defense, typically one of the stingiest units in the league, giving up an average of 380.5 yards and 27.3 points during Pittsburgh's four-game late-season slide. The Steelers are tied for the NFL lead with 33 takeaways, but they managed only five during their losing streak after forcing three in each of the prior four contests. -- Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: With wide receiver George Pickens on the field, the Steelers averaged 0.07 EPA per dropback this season. Without him, that number dropped to minus-0.06. For context, the first number is roughly equivalent to the Rams' passing offense with Matthew Stafford. The latter is the Cowboys, who have started Cooper Rush in nearly half of their games. On-off splits can be misleading, but I think Pickens' impact is pretty clear. He allows downfield throws from Wilson -- Pittsburgh's average depth of target is 7.1 yards with Pickens on the field, 6.0 without him -- which the Steelers will need to have postseason success. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 1. The Steelers limp into the postseason on a four-game losing streak with a banged-up T.J. Watt, continued Pickens drama and lingering uncertainty as to who the cornerback starter is opposite Joey Porter Jr. That's discouraging stuff. -- Solak
7. Denver Broncos (10-7)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 32.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 4.7%
First game outlook: The Broncos' first playoff game since winning Super Bowl 50 will come on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS), when they head to Buffalo to face the No. 2-seeded Bills. The Broncos haven't played Buffalo in the playoffs since the 1991 season, when the Jim Kelly-led Bills defeated the John Elway-led Broncos 10-7 en route to Super Bowl XXVI. Denver has lost four straight road playoff games dating to a victory at Pittsburgh in the 1997 AFC Championship Game. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: Defense. Even with some recent bobbles -- they gave up 27.3 points per game from Weeks 13 through 17 before shutting out the Chiefs on Sunday -- the Broncos are third in the league in overall defensive efficiency, first in expected points added on defense, first in sacks and third in scoring defense. Denver has scored five touchdowns and two safeties on defense this season. Getting back cornerback Riley Moss, who missed Weeks 13 through 16 with a knee injury, to stabilize the corner position opposite Pro Bowler Pat Surtain II should help.
Reason for concern: Three-and-outs. The Broncos' offense has the third-highest percentage of drives that have ended in a three-and-out this season -- a whopping 26.3%. The short possessions have resulted in lost momentum and an inability to prevent opponents from flipping field position. The Bo Nix-led offense has also put Denver's defense in compromising positions, forcing it to return to action quickly. Denver averages 29:46 in possession, 20th in the league. -- Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos play more man coverage than any other team (56%) and let Surtain -- who has the lowest yards per coverage snap (0.6) among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats -- take away one side of the field. Surtain achieved his success through target deterrence -- his 11% target rate is the third lowest among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps -- and ball-hawking (four interceptions). The Broncos occasionally stick Surtain on the opponent's best receiver. In Week 17, Surtain lined up opposite Ja'Marr Chase 77% of the time. Surtain held the NFL's leading receiver to 27 yards as the primary defender, per Next Gen Stats. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 7. Denver's arrow has been steadily pointing up all season, and the Broncos enter the postseason with a great defense and diverse offense. The ceiling is low with a rookie quarterback at the helm, but the vibes are good. -- Solak
NFC
1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +450
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 41.4%
First game outlook: The Lions are the NFC's No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history and will host the lowest-seeded wild-card winner (No. 4 Rams, No. 5 Vikings, No. 6 Commanders and No. 7 Packers) in the divisional round on Jan. 18, or Jan. 19. Detroit hasn't played Washington yet but is 5-0 against the other three opponents, sweeping two games against Minnesota and Green Bay and beating the Rams in overtime in the season opener. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: The offense. The Lions can overwhelm opposing defenses with a variety of options. Veteran QB Jared Goff has been on top of his game, earning starting quarterback honors for the upcoming Pro Bowl. Running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, along with receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, made the Lions the first team in NFL history to have two running backs and two receivers who each topped 1,000 scrimmage yards in a season. Montgomery's status is up in the air after suffering a Week 15 knee injury, though.
Reason for concern: An injury-riddled defense. When healthy, the Lions have been dominant at times. But a slew of injuries to key players such as edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive tackle Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis III has taken a toll. Corner Terrion Arnold was also hurt in Week 18. The Lions compensated in the regular season, beating the 49ers 40-34 in Week 17 despite giving up 475 yards, but they also gave up 559 yards to the Bills in a 48-42 loss in Week 15. Can they win shootouts against playoff-caliber competition? -- Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Since Week 7 (their first game after Hutchinson's injury), the Lions have blitzed 42% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. It's their solution for having no real pass rush without Hutchinson, and to help make up for all of the injuries the defense has faced. The Lions almost certainly will have to rely on the blitz in the postseason, too, because their splits with and without the blitz are dramatic. Since Hutchinson's injury, Detroit's defense ranks second in EPA allowed per dropback when blitzing prior to Sunday night. It drops to 21st when not blitzing. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 8. The heat check can't be too high given the defensive worries, but a home win over a divisional rival to secure the first-round bye and home-field advantage? That's quite the springboard into the postseason. -- Solak
Jahmyr Gibbs cruises untouched for his 17th touchdown of the year as the Lions take the lead late in the first quarter.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +650
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 50.3%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 14.6%
First game outlook: The Eagles get a rematch of their season opener, as they will host the No. 7-seeded Packers in the wild-card round on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). Philadelphia won the initial meeting 34-29 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, thanks to 109 yards and two touchdowns from running back Saquon Barkley in his Eagles debut. The Eagles haven't won a playoff game since beating the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game after the 2022 season. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: Elite personnel. The Eagles boast arguably the best roster in football, which includes a top-tier offensive line, MVP contender and 2,000-yard rusher Barkley, a dynamic receiver duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and a highly ranked defense. It's not only a talented group but a physical one, giving it a real chance to plow its way into the Super Bowl.
Reason for concern: Slow starts. The Eagles failed to score in the first quarter of their first seven games and 10 times overall during the regular season. Philadelphia improved in that area down the stretch but still ranked 21st in opening-quarter points (3.7). Falling behind against good teams in the playoffs could prove costly. -- Tim McManus
Stat to know: Prior to resting their starters in Week 18 the Eagles ranked first in both EPA per designed carry on offense and EPA allowed per designed carry on defense. Philadelphia dominates in the ground game on both sides of the ball. On offense, rush yards over expectation runner-up Barkley (plus-549) and quarterback Jalen Hurts (including all those tush push conversions) lead the way. On defense, linebackers Nakobe Dean and Zack Baun both rank in the top seven among linebackers in run stop win rate. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 8. Everything is rosy in Philadelphia, so long as Hurts is ready to come out of the concussion protocol and play next week. And if he can't, Tanner McKee probably has a playoff win in him. -- Solak
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 58.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 11.1%
First game outlook: The Buccaneers made the playoffs for the fifth straight season and will start by hosting the No. 6-seeded Commanders on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Fox). This is another rematch of a season opener, as Tampa Bay cruised past Washington 37-20 at Raymond James Stadium. This is the fourth straight year the Bucs have hosted a wild-card game, as they beat the Eagles 32-9 in this spot last season. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: A versatile, high-powered offense. The Bucs are averaging 28.6 offensive points -- fourth most in the league and third most in franchise history, trailing only the Tom Brady-led Super Bowl team in 2020 and another Brady-led team in 2021. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 41 touchdown passes, tied for second in the NFL. Mayfield also has the third-highest completion percentage (71.4%) and third-most passing yards (4,500). And Tampa Bay is averaging 149.2 rushing yards, the fourth most in the league.
Reason for concern: The defense has struggled with health and consistency. It has rarely had a healthy squad this season, especially in the secondary. While the Buccaneers have given up only 17.0 points per game since their Week 11 bye -- second best in the league -- only one of those opponents had a winning record. Over the course of the season, Tampa Bay has allowed 249.3 passing yards per game, the fourth most in the league. -- Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Buccaneers recorded more YAC over expectation (plus-498) than any other team this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. NGS outputs an expected number of yards after the catch based on the positioning, speed and direction of all 22 players on the field when the catch is made. And the Bucs have four players with at least 90 YAC over expectation: RB Bucky Irving (123), WR Chris Godwin (112), RB Rachaad White (99) and TE Cade Otton (90). YAC accounted for 54% of Tampa Bay's receiving yards, the seventh most in the league. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 2. It took a much larger effort to beat the Saints in Week 18 than expected, and that pass defense is the culprit -- but Mayfield had another shaky game, too. The Buccaneers are in the big dance by the skin of their teeth. -- Solak
4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3500
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 45.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 5.7%
First game outlook: The Rams will make their second straight playoff appearance and sixth in Sean McVay's eight seasons as head coach when they host the Vikings on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+). Los Angeles gave the Vikings one of their three losses this season, defeating Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7 at SoFi Stadium. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: Drastic defensive improvement. The Rams' defense gave up two touchdowns in Weeks 15 through 17 as it made a playoff push after a 1-4 start. After allowing an average of 23.6 points in its first 13 games, Los Angeles allowed 24 total in the three games prior to clinching the NFC West. A big reason for the improvement is the play of its defensive front, including first-round pick Jared Verse, who was named to the Pro Bowl as the Rams' lone representative.
Reason for concern: An extremely inconsistent offense. After scoring 44 points against the Bills in Week 14, the Rams' offense scored that combined total in Weeks 15 through 17. Los Angeles has especially struggled in the first quarter this season, failing to score a touchdown in 13 of its 16 games in which quarterback Matthew Stafford and the starting offense played. The Rams have averaged 21.6 points per game this season, good for only 20th in the NFL. -- Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Wide receiver Puka Nacua has a 40% target rate. Nacua is in the midst of a historic season ... but since he missed six games, the totals aren't gaudy. But the fact he gets the ball thrown to him 40% of the time he runs a route is ridiculous. That's the highest target rate for a player with at least 200 routes run in a season since at least 2007 -- as far back as ESPN's route data extends. Nacua's 3.7 yards per route run rank third in that span (behind Tyreek Hill in 2023 and Steve Smith Sr. in 2008), too. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 4. The last competitive games we saw the Rams play were 12-point, 19-point and 13-point outings against non-elite defensives -- so I'm worried. But they were all wins with good defensive performances from Chris Shula's young group -- so I'm not too worried. -- Solak
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +800
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 54.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 9.6%
First game outlook: The Vikings will play at the Rams in the wild-card round on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+) after falling to the Lions on Sunday night. The only non-Detroit loss the Vikings have suffered this season came at SoFi Stadium, as the Rams defeated Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7. These teams haven't played each other in the postseason since the 1999 divisional round, when the then-St. Louis Rams outscored the Vikings 49-37 on their way to a Super Bowl crown. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: Balance. The Vikings can win in a variety of ways, as their offense and defense each rank among the NFL's top 10 in scoring. That increases the number of ways they can earn a playoff win. It could come via a big passing day from quarterback Sam Darnold to receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Or the defense could carry the team with a series of well-timed takeaways, after tying for first in the league with 33. In other words, it would take an all-22 effort from an opponent to knock Minnesota from the postseason.
Reason for concern: The Vikings are 9-1 in one-score games for several reasons, including well-timed field goals from Will Reichard and John Parker Romo, who served as a four-game injury replacement. Reichard opened the season by converting his first 14 field goal attempts before suffering a quadriceps injury. Since then, Reichard has made 10 of 16 kicks. The Vikings still have full confidence in Reichard and don't believe that he is having any lingering effects from his injury. But taking a rookie kicker into the playoffs can be nerve-wracking, especially when he enters the postseason in a bit of a slump. -- Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Prior to Sunday night, Darnold had a 3.2% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, sixth highest among quarterbacks. That number represents a dramatic improvement. Entering this season, Darnold had a minus-2.0% career completion percentage over expectation. Some of the change likely can be attributed to his strong wide receivers, but it's also a representation of better accuracy. Darnold's off-target rate dropped from 18% before this season to 14% in 2024, despite throwing slightly deeper passes this season compared with his past. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 7. The Vikings could have carried a 10 had they beaten the Lions on Sunday night, but this is still an excellent team on both sides of the ball. Few teams have won three straight playoff games on the road, but if anyone can do it, I'd back these Vikings. -- Solak
6. Washington Commanders (12-5)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 41.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 5.3%
First game outlook: The Commanders return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 when they play at the No. 3-seeded Buccaneers on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Peacock). Tampa Bay was also Washington's opponent the last time the franchise made the postseason, as the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers defeated the then-Washington Football Team in the wild-card round en route to a Super Bowl title. Washington is 1-2 against the Buccaneers in the playoffs. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: Quarterback Jayden Daniels. He won't win the MVP, but few players have been more valuable to their team. Daniels has thrown for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns and rushed for 864 yards and six more scores. He has a knack for big plays at the right time and has led four game-winning drives, with three touchdown passes coming on the final play from scrimmage. Daniels ranks second in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and overtime.
Reason for concern: The run defense. Washington has the lowest-ranked run defense of any playoff team and only two teams, playoff or otherwise, were worse this season. Only two allowed more yards per carry than the Commanders (4.8), too. Washington has fared better of late, holding Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson to a combined 20 carries and 35 yards in the second half during Weeks 16 and 17. But if a team with a top quarterback is also able to run on the Commanders, it will be tough for Washington to advance. -- John Keim
Stat to know: Daniels recorded 59 total EPA on designed runs and scrambles. That's more than any other player this season and shows just how important Daniels' rushing production has been to the Commanders. Twenty-six percent of Washington's third- and fourth-down conversions this season have come via QB run, which ranks third in the league behind the Eagles and Bills. But when you take away plays with one yard to go, the Commanders have used the quarterback run to convert 22% of their third and fourth downs, the highest mark in the NFL -- Walder
Heat check rating: 3. Save for the last-second win over the Eagles in Week 16, the back half of the season has largely been shaky for the Commanders, and the Week 18 first-half flop from the starting offense against Dallas does little to assuage concerns. -- Solak
7. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +1600
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 49.7%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 12.2%
First game outlook: The Packers get a chance to settle the score from their Brazilian season opener, as they will head to Philadelphia to play at the Eagles on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). The Packers were in a similar position last season, as they upset the NFC East champion Cowboys as the No. 7 seed in the wild-card round. Green Bay also won its last playoff meeting between the teams, winning in Philadelphia in the 2010 wild card en route to the Super Bowl XLV title. -- ESPN
Reason for hope: The Packers do two things extremely well -- run the ball and force turnovers. The Packers are ranked in the top five in both categories -- rushing yards per game (146.8) and total takeaways (31). They have relied heavily on Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs to carry the load (1,329 rushing yards) and have one of the NFL's interception leaders in safety Xavier McKinney (seven). That's a good combination for playoff success.
Reason for concern: The Packers haven't beaten many of the NFC's playoff teams. They're a combined 0-5 against the Eagles, Lions and Vikings. Their best win came at the NFC West champion Rams, but that was back in Week 5 when the Rams were riddled with injuries, especially on offense. "There's a margin of error that is razor thin," Packers coach Matt LaFleur said, "and when you're playing good teams, you got to be better." -- Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Jordan Love ranks fifth in QBR with a 68.7. It has been a quiet climb for Love's efficiency on a Packers team that has leaned on the ground game this season. But after beginning the season with six consecutive games with at least one interception, Love hasn't thrown one in the past seven. Since Week 12, Love has the highest QBR (83.0) in the NFL. It's similar to last season, when Love also had the highest QBR in the league from Week 12 on. -- Walder
Heat check rating: 2. Green Bay was right to play for the sixth seed in Week 18, but leaving the game with injuries to Christian Watson and Love is worrisome. Scary times in Green Bay until we get more news. -- Solak