JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jaguars aren't a playoff lock yet -- but they're getting close.
Per ESPN Analytics, they have a 99% chance of making the postseason heading into Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. They will need a little help from AFC South foes, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, to clinch a postseason berth.
Which makes them one of the league's biggest surprises, considering they finished 4-13 last season, are being led by a first-time head coach in Liam Coen and have been playing without 2025 No. 2 pick Travis Hunter since Week 9.
The Jaguars (10-4), who lead the AFC South by a game over the Texans, last made the playoffs in 2022 and have only made it twice since 2007. They've won five in a row and the only hotter teams in the league are the Texans (six consecutive wins) and the Broncos (11), who currently hold the top seed in the AFC.
Here are four keys for the Jaguars' final push for a playoff berth -- and what could send them on a postseason run:
Keep Trevor Lawrence rolling
Lawrence is riding one of the hottest streaks of his career. He leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (13), ranks third in Total QBR (73.6) and is sixth in passing yards (1,212) during the Jaguars' five-game winning streak.
He has thrown for multiple touchdowns and at least 225 yards in four consecutive games and has not turned the ball over in three straight games -- both the longest streaks of his career.
After accounting for six touchdowns in Sunday's victory over the New York Jets, Lawrence said this is the most confident he has felt in his career. He feels in complete control of Coen's offense. He has benefitted from the addition of receiver Jakobi Meyers and the team using receiver Brian Thomas Jr. as an outside deep threat and is trusting what he's seeing more than he did earlier in the season.
The surge can be traced back to a conversation Lawrence and Coen had in the days after the Jaguars blew a 19-point fourth-quarter lead and lost 36-29 to the Texans in Houston. Coen told Lawrence he needed to "cut it loose and let it rip."
Five games later, Lawrence ranks 10th in passing yards (3,210), fifth in passing TDs (23, two shy of his career high) and leads the NFL with 11 go-ahead touchdown passes.
"I feel like I'm seeing it really well," Lawrence said. "I think I'm throwing it well. I think as an offense, we're really synced up right now, especially in the passing game and protecting up front. You can't do anything without that. And those guys have done an awesome job, and guys are making a ton of plays down the field.
"We all have a lot of confidence in what we're doing. It seems like we've got the ball rolling the last few weeks, so it feels good. ... Like I said, guys are making plays, we're trusting each other, and it's been fun. So, we should keep it rolling."
Continue to feed Meyers
The difference in the passing game now to before Meyers arrived is significant. The Jaguars averaged 20.4 offensive points, and Lawrence had nine touchdown passes and six interceptions in Weeks one through nine (eight games).
Since the trade, the Jaguars have averaged 31.8 offensive points -- second in the NFL only to the Los Angeles Rams (34.0) -- and Lawrence has thrown 14 touchdown passes and five interceptions (three of which came in one game) in Weeks 10 through 15 (six games).
The Jaguars' record before Meyers: 5-3. Their record with him: 5-1.
Coen, Lawrence, Meyers and offensive coordinator Grant Udinski have talked about how quickly the trust between Lawrence and Meyers developed, which is evidenced by Meyers being the Jaguars' leading receiver since the trade (27 catches, 355 yards, three touchdowns).
"He's been awesome," Lawrence said. "Like I said this the last few weeks, it's come along quicker than I would've thought. Sometimes that takes time with different receivers to try to get that chemistry and the timing and all that stuff and it's been pretty seamless with him.
"He's played a lot of football; he has kind of done it all as far as the different offenses, systems. He's played a lot of different positions, so him understanding different schemes and different concepts and what he is being asked to do also helps because he can get up to speed really fast and he communicates really well."
That's also why the Jaguars were eager to sign Meyers to a contract extension, and the sides agreed to a three-year, $60 million deal with $40 million guaranteed on Thursday.
Meyers, who was scheduled to become a free agent after this season, said it didn't take long after he arrived for him to realize he wanted to stay in Jacksonville.
"I probably haven't had this much belief behind me in a long time," he said. "I played a lot of football out of hate and anger, and just to be out there and play for people who believe in you and prove them right. It's a whole different feeling and I feel like it kind of pushed me a little bit more than the anger did.
"... I'm hoping that they feel just as blessed as I do in this situation, but if they don't now, I'm hoping they feel it by the end at least."
They definitely do.
"The first week was pretty impressive with how he operated in the walk-through settings and in practice," Coen said. "Actually, didn't end up winning that game against Houston, but he was a part of that tough time and also made some plays in that game, and you could kind of tell that it was going to be a good fit. It's continued to be, and really the most important thing is his teammates really like him."
Maintain turnover pace on defense
The Jaguars are second in the NFL with 26 forced turnovers (Chicago has 30) after recording eight in their past three games, including three interceptions against the Jets on Sunday. They're 1-2 in the three games in which they have not forced a turnover (losses to Seattle and the Rams and a victory over Arizona).
Though turnovers can be streaky, two of the Jaguars' three remaining opponents have a negative turnover ratio -- Denver is minus-2, Indianapolis is plus-2 and Tennessee is minus-4 -- so that could be favorable matchups for the Jaguars.
"When [forcing turnovers] becomes part of your identity, it's who we are," linebacker Dennis Gardeck said. "That's something that [defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile] talked about from day one. I've been a part of a lot of defenses that talk about taking the ball away because it is such an important factor, but I think when it's who you are as a defense, then it's going to show up even more.
"It's exciting that it is showing up. That is something that is a calling card for the Jaguars defense, and it's exciting to be a part of."
The Jaguars have 18 interceptions, including five by linebacker Devin Lloyd, which is tied for second in the NFL. That alone is twice the total turnovers the Jaguars forced in 2024. Denver's Bo Nix has thrown nine -- but one over the past four games -- and Tennessee's Cam Ward has thrown seven.
OL needs to continue to play at a high level
That's especially true this week against a Denver team that leads the NFL in sacks (58).
What makes the Broncos' pass rush so challenging to combat is the sacks are spread out among multiple players.
Linebacker Nik Bonitto leads with 12.5, but three other players have at least five sacks: LB Jonathon Cooper (eight), defensive lineman Zach Allen (6.5) and defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers (5.5).
That puts more pressure on the offensive linemen to win one-on-one matchups because it's impossible to devote help against multiple rushers, Coen said.
"You try to prepare for chips and relief for one guy or so [but] it's hard to do it at both the ends and inside," Coen said.
"Especially where they do so much five-man rush that by alignment alone makes it difficult and challenging to find where you're going to go and try to provide a little relief and help for. So they do it both with their personnel and they have a good scheme. [Defensive coordinator] Vance Joseph's one of the best out there right now and got a lot of respect for the way that they've put their players in the best positions to be successful.
"Winning one-on-one matchups is what this league's all about."
The Jaguars' offensive line has played well all season, ranking 10th in QB pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and especially the past month, when it allowed just 13 pressures in four games.
The Jaguars have had five games in which they didn't allow a sack, including the past two (Colts and the Jets). Lawrence has been sacked 32 times, though 14 of those sacks came against the Seahawks and Rams.
"I didn't even know that was a stat, honestly," left guard Ezra Cleveland said of the five sackless games. "I know we didn't give up one last week, but I think we look forward to each game and trying to pass pro the best we can. And a lot of it has to do with Trevor, too. He's extending plays and getting out of the pocket and stuff."