Breaking down college football's biggest underachievers

The point of underachiever tiers isn't to shovel shame upon unsuspecting college football teams or their fans, but instead to focus on the why.

Why do certain programs, despite baked-in advantages, consistently fall short of their potential? For some, the shortcomings occur at the very top of the sport. Georgia, after all, was the inspiration for the first edition of underachiever tiers, as the Bulldogs went 41 years between national championships before breaking through in 2021. We're taking a different approach to the tiers this season. Teams are grouped in seven different categories, with the understanding that not all are capable of competing nationally, or even consistently for conference championships. The reasons for underachievement also vary.

For the first time, we're incorporating an expected SP+ rating based on recent recruiting rankings, long-term history, stadium capacity and, where available, coach and coaching staff salaries. Comparing this number to each team's actual five-year SP+ average gives us a unique look at who is performing at a level sufficient to expectations. We focused on team data from the past five seasons, but also took long-term snapshots to examine trends and identify why they've fallen short.

No teams are exempt, although those that have won recent national titles do not appear below.

Let's get started.

Jump to a tier:
CFP no-shows | Under the projections
Hoops or else | Never won big
Money problems | Could've done more | Who's next

CFP no-shows tier

Teams that have never made the College Football Playoff.

Penn State Nittany Lions