No. 2 Clemson | No. 4 Florida State | Top 25
No. 3: Oklahoma
Last Season: 11-2 (8-1 Big 12)
Defying expectations
In 2014, the Sooners were predicted to make the inaugural College Football Playoff ... and they finished 8-5. In 2015, not much was expected-they were listed in the lower rungs of the preseason Top 25 -- and they made the playoff. "Expectations here are what they are," coach Bob Stoops says. "I'm fortunate to be at a place with that kind of pressure, [rather] than somewhere you feel like you have to sneak up on people every year." This year Boomer will sneak up on no one thanks to America's most dynamic backfield duo, QB Baker Mayfield (Big 12 offensive player of the year, 315.8 total ypg) and running back Samaje Perine (five 100-plus-yard games, sixth most in the Big 12). There are questions downfield (Sterling Shepard, whose 3,482 career yards ranks second in OU history, was drafted in the second round) and on defense, where OU lost four first-team All-Big 12 players. And there's little time to solve them, with Houston, Ohio State, TCU and Texas crammed into the first six weeks of the schedule. -- Ryan McGee
Baylor lost its head coach and nearly half of this year's recruiting class, so Oklahoma has the Big 12's clearest shot to the playoff. Mayfield (3,700 passing yards last year) leads my No. 4 offense, with Perine and Joe Mixon, my sixth-ranked rushing duo, behind him. There is no drop-off to the defense either, led by CB Jordan Thomas (5 INTs last year) and the 135 combined tackles of SS Steven Parker and FS Ahmad Thomas. The catch? The past four times the Sooners have been ranked preseason top five, they ended at No. 15 or lower-including finishing unranked twice.
IN IF...
It can beat Ohio State and TCU. On paper, these are the Sooners' toughest home and road games, respectively. Win those and OU can probably even afford to slip once (as it did last year in a loss to Texas).
OUT IF...
The defense doesn't carry its weight. Last year the Sooners' defense more than held its own, ranking first in the Big 12 in scoring D (22.0 points per game). Mayfield and this offense can win most games (43.5 ppg last season), but somewhere along the line they'll need help.
OU's chances to win each game
09.03 vs. Houston (NRG Stadium): 90.4%
09.10 vs. UL Monroe: 99.7%
09.17 vs. Ohio State: 81.0%
10.01 @ TCU: 80.4%
10.08 vs. Texas (Dallas): 81.4%
10.15 vs. Kansas State: 95.2%
10.22 @ Texas Tech: 86.7%
10.29 vs. Kansas: 98.7%
11.03 @ Iowa State: 94.7%
11.12 vs. Baylor: 85.3%
11.19 @ West Virginia: 75.5%
12.03 vs. Oklahoma State: 73.6%
Three heavyweight bouts in their first four games will mightily test Oklahoma, but this team has too much talent and too few flaws to not rise to the challenge. The Sooners can survive those early punches, roll to an 11-1 record and get another shot at the College Football Playoff. -- Max Olson
In Baker Mayfield, Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, the Sooners boast a backfield that might be the envy of college football. The non-conference schedule is a load, but Oklahoma's dynamic trio will propel them to an 11-1 record and return trip to the CFP. -- Jake Trotter
No. 2 Clemson | No. 4 Florida State | Top 25
