No. 3 Oklahoma | No. 5 LSU | Top 25
No. 3: Florida State
Last Season: 10-3 (6-2 ACC Atlantic)
A status quo worth maintaining
Looking for cute tweets of Jimbo Fisher climbing trees in recruits' yards? Don't bother. Been Googling "FSU satellite camp tour"? Forget it. "I don't have any problem with any coach who feels like they need to do that stuff," says Fisher, in his seventh season at the tip of the flaming spear. "I just don't think we need to. Our approach has worked pretty well so far." So well that its 10 wins in 2015-the team's fewest since 2011-felt like a huge letdown. The same hefty questions from a year ago still exist: Who will be the quarterback (senior Sean Maguire, who passed for just 1,520 yards last season, or one of two four-star freshman dual threats, Deondre Francois or Malik Henry)? And can any of them beat Clemson? Of course, solving both problems will be much easier if Heisman hopeful Dalvin Cook, who ran for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns as a sophomore last season, maintains his torrid pace. --Ryan McGee
Last year FSU had the least experienced team in the entire FBS but still went 10-3 and nearly won in Death Valley. Add the fact that the Noles have averaged the third-best recruiting class over the past five years and that Fisher has a reputation as one of the best coaches at talent development and that's quite a combination. Along with Cook (1,935 scrimmage yards), they have my No. 6-ranked WR corps and a top-three O-line. And on defense, FSU has my ninth-rated D-line, No. 12 LBs and No. 21 secondary. While the Noles face my 14th-toughest schedule, I have them favored in every contest, with the closest games being Clemson (-3), at Louisville (-3) and at Miami (-4). You heard it here first: FSU is my favorite to win this year's national title.
IN IF...
QB play is an asset. The wealth of talent surrounding the signal-caller -- whether it's Maguire, Francois or Henry -- will help shoulder the load, but the Noles must improve on last year's middle-of-the-pack ACC QBR (66.0) to get over the playoff hump.
OUT IF...
FSU falls to Clemson at home. The Tigers are too talented (FPI rank: 5) and their schedule too light (FPI: 36) to hope for two conference losses elsewhere.
FSU's chances to win each game
09.05 vs. Ole Miss (Orlando): 70.5%
09.10 vs. Charleston Southern: 99.7%
09.17 @ Louisville: 71.5%
09.24 @ South Florida: 89.4%
10.01 vs. North Carolina: 85.7%
10.08 @ Miami: 81.6%%
10.15 vs. Wake Forest: 96.2%
10.29 vs. Clemson: 63.5%
11.05 @ NC State: 87.6%
11.11 vs. Boston College: 95.5%
11.19 @ Syracuse: 92.2%
11.26 @ Florida: 85.6%
No matter the quarterback, running back Dalvin Cook makes the Florida State offense fearsome. Pair that group with what looks to be one of the best defenses in the country, and the Seminoles should go 11-1 with a shot at a playoff spot. -- Andrea Adelson
There is simply no letting up in Tallahassee, where ballyhooed recruiting classes are there to replenish the program at even the slightest hint of a letup. Deondre Francois may not be Jameis Winston 2.0, but he won't need to be on a roster good enough to navigate a tough schedule and go 11-1, giving the Noles a shot at a playoff berth. -- Matt Fortuna
Quarterbacks get all the hype, and Florida State doesn't have a definite answer there. The rest of the roster though? Look out. The Seminoles are as deep and talented as any team in the country, and even at 11-1, they could be a factor in the playoff discussion. -- David Hale
Talent and experience around the quarterback should ease the transition for whomever Jimbo Fisher picks. Schedule strength and an 11-1 record puts them in the playoff. -- Jared Shanker
No. 3 Oklahoma | No. 5 LSU | Top 25
