No. 10 Notre Dame | No. 12 Houston | Top 25
No. 11: Ole Miss
Last Season: 10-3 (6-2 SEC West)
The Rebels have an investigation hanging over their heads, a self-imposed loss of three scholarships per year and just 10 returning starters after losing five players to the NFL draft. The good news, though, is they still have arguably the strongest arm in college football in QB Chad Kelly (4,042 yards and 31 TDs in 2015) and a stout defense featuring my 12th-best line, fourth-best linebackers and 25th-best defensive backs. They came within a wacky lateral play of winning the SEC West in 2015 and have beaten Alabama two straight years. This year I have them as 'dogs vs. Florida State, vs. Alabama, at Arkansas and at LSU, but not by more than a touchdown. In the past three years, they have six upsets (more than any other team in the top 12), including five over ranked teams.
IN IF...
It can "repeat the feat" and "seal the deal." Each of the past two seasons, Ole Miss has taken the upper hand in the SEC West by beating Alabama early but has given it back to the Tide with late-season losses.
OUT IF...
It can't survive September. Having FSU, Bama and Georgia (average FPI rank: 5.7) in the first four weeks could derail any contender. The Rebels must beat at least two of them.
Ole Miss' chances to win each game
09.05 vs. Florida State (Camping World Stadium): 29.5%
09.10 vs. Wofford: 99.3%
09.17 vs. Alabama: 48.8%
09.24 vs. Georgia: 62.3%
10.01 vs. Memphis: 95.1%
10.15 @ Arkansas: 67.0%
10.22 @ LSU: 26.5%
10.29 vs. Auburn: 71.1%
11.05 vs. Georgia Southern: 95.6%
11.12 @ Texas A&M: 50.6%
11.19 @ Vanderbilt: 80.4%
11.26 vs. Mississippi State: 79.3%
Finally true contenders in the SEC, the Rebels have all the talent on both sides of the ball to compete for a playoff spot, but a rough September will lead the Rebels to just missing out on Atlanta with another 9-3 year. -- Edward Aschoff
Sure they lost plenty of star power from last season's Sugar Bowl squad, but senior Chad Kelly's presence will be an enormous advantage in a conference with few proven quarterbacks. Kelly will put up big numbers again and the rebuilt lineup will still go 9-3 despite facing a challenging schedule. -- David Ching
They have the best QB in the conference, Chad Kelly (at least at this very moment) but numerous questions elsewhere. A lot of NFL talent is gone, and while it's still a good roster, I think they take a small step back to 8-4. -- Sam Khan
The Rebels have enough talent to win 10 games again, but with all of the off-field distractions and a brutal schedule, 9-3 is more likely. -- Greg Ostendorf
I keep trying to talk myself out of Ole Miss finishing with 10-2. But I can't. The defensive line could be monstrous, Chad Kelly is the best QB in the league and the receivers will be just fine thanks to the addition of AJ Brown. -- Alex Scarborough
No. 10 Notre Dame | No. 12 Houston | Top 25
