No. 11 Ole Miss | No. 13 Michigan State | Top 25
No. 12: Houston
Last Season: 13-1 (7-1 American Athletic West)
The Cougars might just be the first Group of 5 team ever to break into the playoff. Houston returns Heisman candidate QB Greg Ward Jr. (17 passing touchdowns and 21 rushing touchdowns last year, with 3,936 total yards) to lead coach Tom Herman's offense, which averaged 40.4 ppg last season (10th in the FBS). And the D has six potential all-conference candidates in its front seven, led by Steven Taylor, who had 10 sacks and 92 tackles in '15. The Cougars face three of the AAC's top teams on the road (Cincinnati, Memphis and Navy), and the only game I have them as underdogs in is Oklahoma (+10), a team that could well end up as Big 12 champ. But inexperience is an issue: They return just 11 starters.
IN IF...
It wins them all and gets a little help. Even an undefeated Houston isn't a lock to finish ahead of a one-loss Power 5 champ, especially if opponents Oklahoma and Louisville aren't highly ranked at the end of the season.
OUT IF...
It doesn't win them all. That's it. If the Cougars don't beat OU in the opener, any talk of playoff contention will cease immediately.
Houston's chances to win each game
09.03 vs. Oklahoma (NRG Stadium): 9.6%
09.10 vs. Lamar: 98.1%
09.15 @ Cincinnati: 52.0%
09.24 @ Texas State: 92.6%
09.29 vs. Connecticut: 82.2%
10.08 @ Navy: 61.6%
10.15 vs. Tulsa: 79.1%
10.22 @ SMU: 70.6%
10.29 vs. UCF: 89.8%
11.12 vs. Tulane: 94.7%
11.17 vs. Louisville: 31.4%
11.25 @ Memphis: 65.7%
We could see a playoff run from last year's college football darling, and with a Heisman dark horse candidate in quarterback Greg Ward Jr., the Cougars will make try their hardest to sit at the big boy's table with another 11-1 regular season. -- Edward Aschoff
If the Cougars fail to crack the top four in the playoff, it won't be because of a soft schedule. Not only will they face Oklahoma and Louisville in nonconference play, but they also visit Cincinnati and Memphis. It seems unlikely that they'll match last season's 11-1 mark against that slate, but this roster is still good enough to go 10-2. -- David Ching
Is a 12-0 record with wins over two Power 5 programs enough to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee come December? Tom Herman and Ward are going to make us find out. -- Sam Khan
Yes, the Cougars beat Florida State last year. That doesn't mean they're beating Oklahoma this year. Still, 10-2 will be another solid year for Herman. -- Greg Ostendorf
Last season, Herman had to get a diamond grill for winning the American. Well, get your measurements done, Tom, because I want to see a gold chain around your neck when Houston repeats. With Ward back and the talent level steadily rising, there's no reason the Coogs can't go 9-3. -- Alex Scarborough
No. 11 Ole Miss | No. 13 Michigan State | Top 25
