Some of the highest-profile targets of the Pac-12's expansion have rebuffed its interest, as Memphis, Tulane, USF and UTSA publicly committed to stay in the American Athletic Conference on Monday.
The schools announced their intentions on social media, which solidifies the AAC in the short term and leaves the six-team Pac-12 in flux as it searches for at least two more members to complete its rebuild.
The Pac-12 added Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and San Diego State in recent weeks, with the goal to create a clear-cut fifth-best football conference. The school is in discussions with Gonzaga as a basketball addition, which sources told ESPN would come with a full revenue share. ESPN is also reporting preliminary discussions with Saint Mary's for the Pac-12.
But some of the Pac-12's momentum to become the top football conference outside the Power 4 leagues has stalled, as Memphis loomed as the linchpin of any potential additions.
The schools issued statements filled with standard jargon about student-athletes and academics, but the reality is that a significant financial risk loomed if any of them decided to join the Pac-12. AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti has aggressively tried to leverage private equity money to help boost cash flow in his league.
The four schools released a joint statement that read, in part: "While we acknowledge receiving interest in our institutions from other conferences, we firmly believe that it is in our individual and collective best interests to uphold our commitment to each other."
Exit fees from the AAC loomed as a big factor, as SMU paid $25 million to leave under a 27-month window. Factoring in revenue loss, it would cost a projected $27.5 million for each school to exit, as the Pac-12 is slated to start play in 2026.
The biggest factor working against the Pac-12 in luring the high-profile AAC programs was that it couldn't guarantee them a set monetary amount. The conference is working with its consulting partner, Navigate, to reconstruct the league. The costs and toll of travel also played a role in the decision-making. Navigate has been at the forefront of the outreach calls for the Pac-12, sources said.
While the Pac-12 has offered revenue projections of more than $12 million, there's no guarantee it would land there, considering it doesn't know who the final members will be. That has prevented the conference from getting an idea from television partners on what a deal would be worth, and that uncertainty presented a risk for the AAC schools. Memphis, Tulane and USF make close to $9 million in revenue from the league all-in between media rights, bowl deals and NCAA units.
As the Pac-12 whiffed on some of its top targets, the Mountain West has been scurrying to solidify its league. ESPN reported that the Mountain West is offering outsized deals to Air Force and UNLV as incentives to stay. The conference is offering all eight of its members extra money and guaranteeing that they won't move backward in their media contract.
ESPN has confirmed that Air Force has pledged its commitment to stay in the Mountain West. That is in the form of a memorandum of understanding that will allow the league to work toward a television deal and grant of rights.