Week 1 has traditionally been one of the most difficult weeks in ESPN Eliminator Challenge, especially recently. Over the last two seasons, teams favored by at least four points in Week 1 are just 6-7-1, leading to many early eliminations.
Last season, the two chalky Week 1 picks both survived (Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders), while the next two most popular picks were upset. Two years ago, the chalkiest pick won (Ravens), but the three next-most popular choices either lost (Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans) or tied (Indianapolis Colts). Overall, the second-most popular choice in Week 1 Eliminator Challenge has lost in three of the last four seasons.
This season shapes up similarly to previous years with one obvious choice on paper. The Cincinnati Bengals are the only team favored by more than a touchdown at ESPN BET and have the best chance to win this week according to both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay's model. Not surprisingly, they are also the most popular pick, as 30% of entrants picking them as of Tuesday evening. They are also our top pick for Week 1, as we will ride the chalk.
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Click here to download Mike Clay's Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly. Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Top picks
1. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New England Patriots)
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
It's the chalky pick for a reason. While underdogs tend to overachieve in Week 1, the biggest favorites tend to take care of business. Teams favored by more than a touchdown in Week 1 are 26-4 outright over the last 15 seasons (.867), while teams favored between 4-7 points are 61-25-1 (.707). For those looking to be contrarian, there are some reasons to go other directions. They will be at least 79% favorites in two of their next five games after this week, so the Bengals hold plenty of future value.
However, those weeks also offer several other strong options on paper. The Bengals are the biggest favorites by far in Week 17, so burning them now could be painful then, but it's too early to be concerned about 16 weeks from now. The Patriots are a strong candidate to be the worst team in the NFL, and fading them on the road will be a staple of this column for months.
ESPN BET line: Bengals -8.5 (-425 moneyline)
ESPN Analytics: Bengals 82% chance to win (by 13.2)
Eliminator Challenge: 30% selected this week
2. Buffalo Bills (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Bills are a strong second choice this week as the second-biggest favorites according to the betting odds, Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. One benefit to using the Bills is that they have the second-hardest schedule in the NFL, only behind the Patriots.
While the Bills are a top-five team entering the season according to ESPN Analytics, there are only three more games after this week where they are projected to be at least 70% favorites. Buffalo has also been a strong Week 1 team under Sean McDermott, winning and covering the spread in each of the last four seasons.
ESPN BET line: Bills -6 (-270 moneyline)
ESPN Analytics: Bills 77% chance to win (by 9.5)
Eliminator Challenge: 13% selected this week
3. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Denver Broncos)
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
The Seahawks are another strong pivot off the Bengals chalk this week. This is their second-largest favorite role this season according to Mike Clay and their largest favorite role all season according to ESPN Analytics. First-round quarterbacks since 2021 are 0-9 in their first career starts, and Seattle is a notoriously difficult road venue for Bo Nix to begin his career. The other benefit with the Seahawks is that they are currently being picked by just 5% of Eliminator Challenge participants. If that number remains low, the Seahawks become the most interesting contrarian pick in Week 1 despite being the third-largest betting favorites.
ESPN BET line: Seahawks -6 (-250 moneyline)
ESPN Analytics: Seahawks 71% chance to win (by 7.6)
Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected this week