Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off with an NFC South matchup between the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) and the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video).
Both teams are coming off wins, with the Buccaneers disposing of the Eagles and the Falcons nipping the Saints on a 58-yard field goal with 2 seconds left.
The Falcons opened as 2.5-point favorites for Thursday's matchup (O/U 42.5), but the line has since dipped to -1.5. The Buccaneers (+185 to win the NFC South) and Falcons (+160) split the series last season, with each team winning on the road.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Falcons -1.5
Money line: Falcons (-125), Buccaneers (+105)
Over/Under: 43.5
First-half spread: Falcons -0.5 (+102), Buccaneers +0.5 (-125)
Buccaneers total points: 20.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Falcons total points: 21.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
The props
Passing
Kirk Cousins total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Cousins total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Baker Mayfield total passing yards: 249.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Mayfield total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Rushing
Bijan Robinson total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Bucky Irving total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Rachaad White total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Tyler Allgeier total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Receiving
Mike Evans total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Chris Godwin total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Drake London total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Darnell Mooney total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Kyle Pitts total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Cade Otton total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Robinson total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -110/Under -130)
White total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Anita Marks' picks
Eric Karabell breaks down Mike Evans' solid fantasy performance in Week 4.
Buccaneers-Falcons UNDER 43.5 (-105)
It has been a slow start to the season for offenses. Prime-time unders are 8-7 so far this season and 78-49-1 over the last three seasons. The Buccaneers are dealing with a plethora of injuries and have to go on the road, where they are 6-4 to the under since the start of last year. Both these defenses are solid. Expect a Thursday night snoozer.
Bucky Irving anytime TD (+140)
There is a lot of buzz around the Buccaneers backfield and Irving's increased role. Rachaad White is still out-snapping Irving, but Sunday against the Eagles the gap closed to 45 snaps for White to 32 for Irving. Irving ran the ball 10 times (the same number of carries as White) for 49 yards and a TD. More importantly, he handled all five of Tampa's red zone rushing attempts in the game. He could have an even larger role Thursday night against the Falcons.
Chris Godwin OVER 69.5 yards (-110), Cade Otton OVER 29.5 yards (-120)
I expect Godwin and Otton to be Baker Mayfield's top targets, considering Tampa's offense is an infirmary. Wideouts Mike Evans (knee/calf), Trey Palmer (concussion) and Jalen McMillan (ankle) are all dealing with injuries, and Sterling Shepard was just activated off the practice squad. On a short work week, elevate the guys that are healthy. The Falcons defense is weak against the slot, where both Godwin and Otton run the majority of their routes.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info
The Buccaneers are 9-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season (four straight covers). The Falcons are 0-3 ATS at home this season.
The Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS as underdogs over the last two seasons (8-1 ATS as road underdogs) and have covered five straight games as 'dogs. The Falcons are 3-10 ATS as favorites since the start of last season.
Twelve of the last 16 meetings between these teams have gone over the total.
Thirteen straight Falcons prime-time games have gone under the total, dating to 2017.
Kirk Cousins is 8-3 ATS in prime-time games since 2020. Baker Mayfield is 3-8 ATS in his last 11 prime-time games. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 prime-time games.
Since the start of the 2018 season, no player in the NFL has thrown more passing TDs against the blitz than Cousins (68). The Buccaneers defense has blitzed 37% of the time this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL.
Prime-time unders are 78-49-1 over the last three seasons (8-7 this season).
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