Welcome into the conference championship round edition of Props that Pop. Liz Loza carried us last week, going 2-1 with her bets. Thank goodness she was here because I had a dreadful weekend.
Not only did my props go 0-3, but my Detroit Lions lost to the Washington Commanders last week in our first game of the playoffs. It was gut-wrenching. After going 15-2 in the regular season, the Lions' best mark in their history, we lost in our first and only playoff game. At home, no less.
And then, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was hired as the new head coach for the Chicago Bears. A team within the division! I don't want to face his offense twice a year. Don't get me wrong though, I'm thrilled for him. There aren't many head coaching positions available in the NFL, so when your window is open and you're blossoming as a coach, you've got to take what's available. Luckily for him, and unluckily for Lions fans, that job is with a young and talented Chicago squad. But good luck to Ben in his new role. I wish him nothing but success in 15 of his 17 games next season.
So, that made for a pretty rough weekend. Thankfully, this weekend is a blank slate, and we're bringing winners to the table. So without further adieu, here is the championship edition of playoff Props that Pop! -- Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Tyler Fulghum is expecting a "shootout" in the AFC title game between the Bills and Chiefs and encourages bettors to take the over.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 INTs (-105)
Loza: It took a minute for the Kansas City Chiefs offense to round into form, but Mahomes has played virtually mistake-free since about midseason. Nine of his 11 interceptions occurred in the first two months of the 2024 campaign. He hasn't thrown a pick since Week 11 when he recorded two INTs -- against the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo has excelled at generating takeaways, logging 16 in the regular season (tied for fifth most). Bobby Babich's crew struggled to pressure Lamar Jackson in the second half of last week's game, but the Bills still picked off one of his passes, which is impressive considering Jackson registered just four INTs (the second fewest) in the regular season. In a tight, back-and-forth matchup expected to showcase a solid number of aerial attempts (the Over/Under on Mahomes' passing attempts is 36.5), the chance of a pick, especially given the odds, is worth the bet.
Josh Allen longest rush OVER 12.5 yards (-130)
Loza: It's no secret that Steve Spagnuolo loves to dial up a blitz. That often creates an atmosphere in which QBs look to escape and extend. Kansas City's defense allowed the fifth-most rushing attempts (88) to QBs and gave up the seventh-most rushing yards (434) this season. Though the Chiefs allowed the 15th-fewest rushes over 13 yards (seven), the longest of those was delivered courtesy of ... Josh Allen (a 26-yard rushing TD).
Allen has posted eight rushes of 15 yards or more this season and 77 in his career, including the postseason. Over 10% of those runs (8 of 77) have come against the Chiefs. Bettors need him to rip off only 13 yards to pay out on the above prop. That seems probable, especially when noting he averaged over 31 rushing yards per game during the regular season. Here's to a vintage Allen performance and a win on the over!
Jayden Daniels OVER 286.5 passing + rushing yards (-115)
Dopp: Daniels has been unbelievable this season on so many levels. Daniels rushed for 891 yards, the most yards by a rookie QB and the ninth most by a QB in NFL history. As if that wasn't enough, Daniels completed 69% of his passes and threw only nine interceptions. The Washington Commanders rookie also threw for over 3,500 yards and 25 passing TDs while unlocking Terry McLaurin.
Daniels has hit this line in each of his past five full games played. (He played only a handful of snaps in a meaningless Week 18 game, which was expected, so I'm not counting it toward this stat.) He has had at least nine carries in five of his past six games, and I'm expecting him to be heavily involved in the run game again.
Daniels recently played the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, finishing with 258 passing yards and 81 rushing yards to give him 339 passing + rushing yards. I'm not sure the Commanders win Sunday, but I know Daniels will use all of his skills to push his team down the field. That's why I'm taking the over here.
Running back props
Austin Ekeler OVER 46.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Dopp: If Washington is going to win this weekend, one of the guys it'll need is Ekeler. The running back has been a consistent passing-game option for Daniels this year, logging two or more catches in 13 of his 14 games this season (including playoffs) and reaching at least 20 receiving yards in eight of those. Including the first two weeks of the playoffs, Ekeler is averaging 62.4 scrimmage yards per game, which is well north of the line we're trying to hit.
I know Philadelphia has been good against opposing running backs, specifically keeping them out of the end zone. But I think the Eagles dominate against the Commanders, putting Washington in a similar situation it put the Lions in last week. And that would mean Ekeler should have his number called on more than a few occasions to help keep drives alive. I'd play this up to 49.5 rushing + receiving yards, but I wouldn't go over the 50-yard mark.
Wide receiver props
A.J. Brown OVER 69.5 receiving yards (+105)
Loza: Brown hasn't gone over 36 receiving yards for three straight contests. But I'm buying the over in a game with massive stakes (and a projected point total of 47.5). Jalen Hurts tried to get the ball to his No. 1 wideout versus the Los Angeles Rams, targeting Brown a team-high seven times last week. The 27-year-old receiver said the snow threw off his vibe, limiting him to a 2-14-0 stat line. Whether that's true, the conditions in Philly are expected to be flake-free Sunday.
The coverage conditions also figure to be friendly, as Marshon Lattimore has struggled since returning from a hamstring issue. Lattimore has allowed five receptions on seven targets for 73 yards and a touchdown (along with a passer rating of 144.6) during Washington's postseason run. Brown should remain a focus for Philly's offense, especially with the Commanders' vulnerable secondary. He also cleared the above line the last time he faced Washington in Week 16. This tilt portends much "Inner Excellence" and a hearty bounce-back for Brown.
Hollywood Brown OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-105)
Dopp: Last week was a major blow to bettors' trust in Brown after he delivered a two-target, zero-reception performance in the divisional round against the Houston Texans. But I'm more optimistic heading into this week because of that. Brown's goose egg last week lowered the line for bettors this week, and I'm not complaining about that. Secondly, I don't think he gets shut out two weeks in a row. It might not feel like it, but he's becoming a bigger part of the offense, going from 27% of the snaps in Week 16 to 43% of the snaps in Week 17 to 64% of the snaps last week. He's playing more than ever and already topped this line twice, in Weeks 16 and 17.
I'm not letting last week scare me away. I think this line should be closer to 44.5 or 49.5, so I'll gladly take it at 39.5. I know Mahomes likes to spread it around, which is why I'm targeting one of the lower receiving lines instead of taking Travis Kelce or Xavier Worthy. Buffalo allowed QBs to complete over 70% of their passes this year, the highest mark in the NFL. And if there's one thing Mahomes knows how to do, it's flop like an NBA player in order to draw a flag it's use his arm to find open guys. I'm on the over.