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March Madness 2025: First bets for the men's Final Four

Walter Clayton Jr. led the Gators to the Final Four with several huge shots late against Texas Tech. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The Final Four is set in the men's NCAA tournament, and only No. 1 seeds are left standing. On Saturday, Florida plays Auburn in the first game and Duke plays Houston in the second game, leading up to Monday night's championship.

So which bets offer the best value? Joe Fortenbaugh, Tyler Fulghum, Mackenzie Kraemer and Greg Peterson take a look at the early odds and highlight the bets that stand out before the lines move later in the week.

Odds are accurate as of publication time. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.


Florida vs. Auburn Under 161

The Auburn defense has stepped up in a big way to get this team to the Final Four, allowing 70 points or fewer in all six of their SEC and NCAA tournament games. The Florida defense is also one of the fiercest in the country, ranking in the top 20 in both opponent 2-point and 3-point shooting percentage. In a converted football stadium, the depth perception will impact even the best of outside shooters like Denver Jones of Auburn and Walter Clayton Jr. of Florida, and oftentimes a game of this magnitude will be played at a slower pace than normal with the stakes riding on it. -- Peterson

Auburn +2.5

Only 56 days have passed between this Saturday and the last time these two teams played on Feb. 8. I note this relatively short time span because that aforementioned meeting saw Auburn close as an 11-point home favorite ... and 56 days later the Tigers are catching 2.5 points? That's a 13.5-point swing! Granted, Florida won that game, which was played on Auburn's home court, but that's too big of an adjustment in my mind. Everybody has doubted Auburn since the outset of this tournament, and all the Tigers have done is gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the point spread while winning by an average of 12.7 points per game. As for Florida, how lucky are the Gators to even be here after that Texas Tech choke job on Saturday? I'm guessing the public backs Florida here, which means we might be able to score a +3 or +3.5 one that action hits the market. -- Fortenbaugh

Florida ML + Duke ML Parlay (+148)

I think Duke and Florida are proving to be the two best teams in this tournament and I can't bet an exact matchup so I'll build a ML parlay in the Final Four. Duke has been impossible to stop on offense in this tournament. Houston will definitely provide a difficult test on that end of the floor, but the Blue Devils play elite defense, too. I think they'll pull away from Houston late. Auburn and Florida met once in SEC play, and the Gators won on Auburn's floor 90-81. Todd Golden's roster has an answer for everything. I think we'll see the two best teams in college basketball meet in the finals, and this is the way to bet that. -- Fulghum

Houston First Half +2.5

Most analytical models have this game much closer to a pick 'em than the 4.5-point full-game spread would indicate. ESPN Analytics gives Duke just a 54% chance to win. Duke hasn't faced a top-15 defense since December, so Houston's physicality and athleticism is not something Duke has seen in a long time. That could bother the Blue Devils, especially early. Houston has a real chance for the upset for the full game, but I'd rather isolate the first half, as it could take Duke some time to get comfortable. -- Kraemer